THE TIMES POLL : Californians Oppose Bailout Plan for Mexico : But when loan guarantees are framed as the only effective way to cut illegal immigration, a majority favor the help.

Californians generally oppose President Clinton’s $20-billion financial aid package for Mexico unless the bailout is presented as the only means of reducing illegal immigration, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

The poll found that although only about two in five approve of aid to Mexico in principle, state residents feel more strongly about the need to stem the flow of illegal immigration, something many perceive to be a drag on the state’s resources.

However, most say that helping to stabilize Mexico’s economy is in the national interest. And Californians view the North American Free Trade Agreement far more favorably now than they did in 1993.

Follow-up interviews with poll respondents suggest that many think the bailout is tantamount to throwing good money after bad and that it won’t solve Mexico’s problems.

“It’s such a rush decision, to sell the idea without thinking out the angle and the consequences,” said poll respondent Tony Jan, a Palo Alto computer engineer who opposes the aid package. “Things (in Mexico) will fall apart again.”

Pager salesman James Airheart from Roseville said: “We’re giving them a lot of money to straighten them back up, but I don’t think the root of the problem has been taken care of. They don’t know what to do with the money once they’ve got it. It’s throwing water into an empty hole.”

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With or without a bailout, seven of every 10 interviewed expect illegal immigration into California to increase because of Mexico’s economic crisis. The poll was based on interviews with 1,390 state residents and was conducted between March 4 and 9. It has a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

“Clearly, the one overriding concern to Californians relating to Mexico is illegal immigration--not trade and not Mexico’s domestic economic problems, except to the extent that those problems spill over into California in the form of illegal immigrants,” said Wayne Cornelius, professor at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at UC San Diego.

The poll found that 50% of Californians oppose in principle the loan guarantees to help out the troubled Mexican economy and that 43% are in favor of them. But when the bailout is framed as the only effective way to reduce illegal immigration, respondents flip-flop, with 57% in favor and 33% opposed.

“Illegal immigration would increase if we turned it down,” said Joseph Fernandez, a Redondo Beach auto mechanic and poll respondent. “But basically I think we have bailed out too many people. I don’t think it will help. That’s a bottomless pit--not just Mexico but the whole South American deal.”

Fernandez’s response is typical of how “most Californians tend to view the bailout as an unjustified reward for economic mismanagement and political corruption,” Cornelius said.

Breaking down the results among ethnic groups, opposition to the bailout was strongest among African Americans, with 56% opposed and 41% in favor. Latino respondents were the most supportive, but even they were closely divided, with 48% in favor and 46% opposed.

Among political groups, people who described themselves as conservatives were the staunchest opponents, with 60% opposed to the loan guarantees and 34% in favor. Of liberals, 58% approved and 34% were against.

Californians’ opposition to bailing out Mexico was much less than that of the nation as a whole. A Times Poll conducted in January found that 81% of U.S. residents opposed an earlier White House aid proposal.

The lower California figure may have been partly due to the fact that the original aid proposal was more expensive. But experts also attributed the difference to California’s high Latino population and to a recognition here that cross-border trade benefits the state.

“It’s a good sign that people are getting the message that what happens in Mexico is not a foreign issue but something that is going to directly affect their lives,” said Raul Hinojosa, professor of public policy at the North American Integration and Development Center at UCLA.

That recognition was also reflected in the fact that 48% of Californians now say the North American Free Trade Agreement has been a good thing for the nation, and only 22% say it has been a bad thing, said Susan Pinkus, Times Poll assistant director.

That compares to an October, 1993, poll showing that only 30% were in favor and 33% were opposed to NAFTA, which was then being negotiated.

“NAFTA is a good deal. We are in a global economy and we have got to compete in that economy. And that means trading with all kinds of people and adjusting our resources and our skills that we do best and let other people do what they do best,” said Webster Plourd, a retiree in Banning who favors the bailout package.

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An overwhelming majority of Californians--78%--want to see trade with Mexico maintained at current levels or higher.

“People know that Mexico is important to our national interests,” Pinkus said. “But they are against the aid package, and that has to do with money, that the economy is not doing that well in California and that it should be spent on people here at home.”

Asked if helping Mexico maintain a stable economy would be in the U.S. interest, 57% said yes.

“We have a lot of investments over there and a lot invested in the new NAFTA agreement, and if they go bottom-up, it will all be wasted,” said Bennie Morris, a San Diego retiree.

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Investors repudiated Mexico’s economic plan. A1

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,390 adults statewide by telephone March 4-9. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers were called. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region of the state. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus three percentage points; for certain other subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

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Reluctant to Help

Californians say they will support an economic aid package to Mexico when they think it’s the only way to stop increases of illegal immigrants to the state. Questions from a recent Times poll:

“Do you favor or oppose the economic aid package for Mexico involving $20 billion in U.S. loans and loan guarantees, along with another $30 billion in loans from international banks and foreign countries?”

Favor: 43%

Oppose: 50%

Don’t know: 7%

“Would you favor or oppose the U.S. providing economic aid to Mexico if that were the only way to prevent an increase in the amount of Mexican illegal immigration into California?”

Favor: 57%

Oppose: 33%

Don’t know: 10%

“Because of the economic and political instability in Mexico, do you expect there will be an increase in the amount of Mexican illegal immigration into California or not?”

Increase: 71%

No increase: 21%

Don’t know: 8%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll