Most Opposed to Hiking Sales Tax : Times O.C. Poll: Ratio among voters is a strong 57% to 36%, with 7% undecided. ‘It doesn’t look good,’ Steiner says of the half-cent levy on a June 27 special ballot.

Unwilling to pay for the mistakes of their elected officials, a large majority of Orange County voters say they oppose the half-cent sales tax proposal designed to bail the county out of its financial crisis, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

The poll--the first taken since the Board of Supervisors chose to place the tax increase on a special ballot June 27--found that voters oppose the levy by a ratio of 57% to 36%; 7% were undecided. By a 51% to 42% count, voters also disapprove of the supervisors’ decision to put Measure R before them, with 7% undecided, the poll found.

“It doesn’t look good,” Supervisor William G. Steiner said. “We’ve got a lot of education to go if the tax increase is to stand a chance at all.”

Added Board Chairman Gaddi H. Vasquez: “Voters want to be able to see that we’ve made all the cuts and taken all the actions we can before they cast an affirmative vote for a tax.”

On Monday, county attorneys submitted the recommended ballot language for Measure R to the supervisors, who are expected to approve a final version at today’s board meeting.

Of those who said they would vote against the tax, 45% indicated it was unfair to be asked to pay for others’ mistakes, and another 26% said they are opposed to any new tax at all. Others said there are alternative ways to raise money, such as selling assets, and several said the supervisors must quit before they would consider voting for a tax.

Responses to the poll suggest that opposition to the so-called “bankruptcy recovery tax” is closely linked to voter anger at the supervisors’ handling of the county’s financial crisis.

The percentage of voters who believe the supervisors have done a poor job has increased from 34% in a Times Orange County Poll in December to 48% today. Those who think the supervisors have done an excellent or good job have decreased from 21% in December to 13% today.

Both polls were conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The current poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday. The random telephone survey questioned 519 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%

“I think the measure faces a difficult uphill battle to win in June,” said Mark Baldassare, a UC Irvine professor of urban planning.

“It has several things going against it: Older voters are against the increase and are also the most likely to turn out to vote,” Baldassare said. “And the opposition to this measure is tied to a very negative rating for the Board of Supervisors, who put it on the ballot. It’s off to a very, very rocky start.”

Anti-tax activists said the poll results confirmed their belief that voter opposition to the tax is widespread.

“We’ve known for some time that no one wants this tax, “ said Carole Walters, a leader of the Committees of Correspondence, a vocal anti-tax group. “People are mad about it, and they are going to fight it.”

“It sounds like this is a poll that truly measured how people feel about this,” added group member Bruce Whitaker. “There’s very little support for it out there.”

Three proposed ballot statements against Measure R were filed with the county registrar of voters Monday, the deadline for submitting such statements. One group filed a statement on behalf of the tax increase.

One statement of opposition came from the Committees of Correspondence. A second was submitted by Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) and a group composed mostly of city and school officials.

The registrar’s office refused to release the third anti-Measure R statement. The lone statement in favor of Measure R, submitted by a group called Citizens for Economic Progress--Yes on Measure R, also was not released.

County officials today will select one of the three anti-Measure R statements to go on the sample ballot with the statement in favor of the tax increase.

In contrast to the anti-tax sentiment revealed by the most recent poll, Measure M--a half-cent sales tax increase approved by voters in November, 1990, to finance transportation improvements--trailed by just one percentage point two months before it passed, according to a Times Orange County Poll taken at the time. One month before the tax was approved, the poll found it winning, 47% to 37%.

Baldassare said it was easier for voters to approve Measure M because they could see freeway gridlock every day. They have more difficulty envisioning bankruptcy problems, he said.

In the latest poll, nearly six in 10 of those who favored the sales tax increase said it was the only way they could see to raise the money necessary to help the county out of its crisis. Another 8% said they wanted to maintain county services, 7% said they would approve it to protect schools and law enforcement, and another 7% said they wanted to avoid hurting the local economy.

The remainder said they wanted to avoid more budget cuts and layoffs, help the county avoid defaulting on its debts, and share the burden of the financial crisis.

If the increase is approved, the county’s sales tax would rise from 7.75% to 8.25% for the next decade. It would generate an estimated $135 million annually, which the county would use to borrow an additional $700 million.

Baldassare and others believe that despite the devastating impact the bankruptcy has had on Orange County’s finances, most poll respondents have yet to see a tangible effect on themselves, their school districts or their quality of life.

In the January poll, only two in 10 voters said they believed that cuts in local services or education would affect them. In the latest poll, about three in 10 said they had concerns that cutbacks would hurt them personally.

There is also growing worry over whether the collapse of the county’s investment pool, which contained the money of nearly 200 schools, cities and other public entities, will hurt the quality of life and education in Orange County.

In January, 17% of voters said their quality of life would be hurt substantially. In the new survey, the percentage had grown to 28%. Those who believe schools will be affected significantly increased to 34% from 22% in January.

Although concern is on the rise, it is not an overriding fear, the poll suggests.

“There is still a lot of denial out there,” Steiner said. “There is still not a full appreciation for the depth of this problem, such as the implication of us going into default.”

The poll showed some good news for local officials: By a ratio of 52% to 28%, voters are opposed to the state taking over the county’s finances in exchange for lending it $200 million a year; 20% are undecided.

“As unhappy as people are with the local leadership here, they are more distrustful of a detached, legislative body and bureaucracy in Sacramento,” Steiner said.

Should the sales tax fail June 27, Steiner said, “a state trustee will be in here on the 28th of June and it will be the ultimate test to see whether the state of California backs up our loans.”

William J. Popejoy, the county’s chief executive officer, said he wasn’t surprised by the poll results and expected greater opposition to the tax.

“There are still a lot of questions in the public’s mind as to why this tax is necessary, and people haven’t had to live with this every day like my staff and I have,” Popejoy said. “I am confident that voters will be in favor of the sales tax because that is what will preclude a state takeover and a huge amount of litigation. It’s the only way out.”

As opposed to the supervisors, who have large negative ratings in the poll, Popejoy was given a good or excellent ranking by 30% of voters and a fair rating by 35% of voters. Only 15% said Popejoy was doing a poor job.

* OCTA REBUFFS COUNTY: Agency won’t allow any diversion of Measure M funds. A16

* NEW QUESTIONS: Senate panel may again quiz Merrill Lynch officials. A16

* MORE COVERAGE: A20, B10

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Voters Say New Tax Unfair

Measure R faces a tough battle because many voters believe they should not pay for the mistakes of others, and because they oppose new taxes of any kind. Fifty-seven percent oppose Measure R, 36% support it, and 7% are undecided.

Why Voters Oppose Measure R (among 57% saying no) Unfair to pay for others’ mistakes: 45% Oppose new taxes: 26% Other ways to raise money: 14% Supervisors must quit first: 6% Other/don’t know: 9% *

Why Voters Support Measure R (among 36% saying yes) Only way to raise enough money: 57% Maintain county services: 8% Protect schools, law enforcement: 7% Avoid hurting economy: 7% No more budget cuts, layoffs: 5% Other/don’t know: 16% Source: Times Orange County Poll

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Measure Wording

Here is the Orange County counsel’s proposed wording for Measure R, which will go before voters June 27. The Board of Supervisors is expected to adopt a final version at its meeting today.

“Shall Ordinance No. 3933 be adopted, which would impose a State administered one-half percent ( 1/2%) sales and use tax automatically terminating in 10 years, to raise revenue for general County purposes, including, but not limited to, preservation of essential County services and payment of County bankruptcy obligations to schools, cities and other creditors, with a citizens’ oversight committee authorized to recommend earlier repeal of the tax?”

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey questioned 600 adult Orange County residents, including 519 registered voters, April 6-9 using a computer-generated random sample that included listed and unlisted telephone numbers. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is plus or minus 4.5% at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain the results are within 4.5 percentage points of what they would be if every registered voter were interviewed.

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Voters Downgrade Supervisors

Voters have become more convinced the county’s investment losses will erode the quality of education and the overall quality of life in Orange County. More of them also believe the Board of Supervisors is doing a poorer job of handling the crisis. But they have a more positive view of Chief Executive Officer William J. Popejoy.

Do you think the investment fund losses will hurt the quality of life in Orange County? The quality of education in your school district?

Jan. April Jan. April A lot 17% 28% 22% 34% Somewhat 57% 48% 40% 42% Not much 18% 12% 21% 11% Not at all 7% 8% 12% 8% Don’t know 1% 4% 5% 5%

*

How would you rate the job performance of the Orange County Board of Supervisors in handling the county’s financial crisis?

Dec. April Excellent 4% 1% Good 17% 12% Only fair 35% 33% Poor 34% 48% Don’t know 10% 6%

*

How would you rate the job performance of Chief Executive Officer William J. Popejoy in handling the county’s financial crisis? Percent Excellent: 6% Good: 24% Only fair: 35% Poor: 15% Don’t know: 20% *

If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure R, the Bankruptcy Recovery Tax?

Don’t Yes No know All voters 36% 57% 7% Democrats 45% 49% 6% Republicans 31% 62% 7% 18-34 years 35% 51% 14% 35-54 38% 59% 3% 55 and older 34% 59% 7% Supervisors rating Excellent/good 56% 35% 9% Only fair 38% 56% 6% Poor 28% 65% 7% Popejoy rating Excellent/good 49% 46% 5% Only fair 29% 66% 5% Poor 26% 65% 9%

Source: Times Orange County Poll