Summer Forecast: Slim Pickings

We know about the damage done to artichoke, strawberry and lettuce crops from this spring’s rain--there’s nothing like fields under water and pickers knee-deep in muck to get your attention. But wait until you see what is going to happen to the prices for cherries, apricots and plums in the next couple of months. It’s not a pretty picture.

While few fruit trees were blown down during the storms, the cold, rainy weather came just as the trees should have been pollinated. Bees don’t go out when it’s cold and damp, without bees there’s no pollination, and without pollination there’s no fruit.

According to industry estimates, the 1995 plum harvest will be down between 25% and 30%, cherries will be down between 30% and 35%, and apricots will be down 35% to 40%. In general, the earliest varieties of each fruit will be the hardest hit.

Granted, prices won’t go as far out of line as they did for iceberg lettuce (not unless McDonalds starts putting plums on their sandwiches), but you can be sure that you’ll be paying more for fruit this summer. That’s especially true if you’re comparing the prices to those last year, when summer fruit growers experienced across-the-board record harvests and consumers enjoyed rock-bottom prices.

In addition to apricots, cherries and plums, the summer crop of California Bartlett pears will be significantly reduced as well. Though firm estimates won’t be made until June, a spokesperson for the California Pear Advisory Board said growers were predicting the harvest will be 10% to 15% lower than the average and 15% to 20% lower than last year’s record.

At least one grower remained optimistic. “Last year was a big year and next year will be, too,” he said. “The trees exerted themselves and now they’re resting.”