They’ve Heard It Before : Pro basketball: Lakers not expected to survive series against San Antonio, but Seattle was favored too.

This is the city of long shots.

Nick Van Exel from 25 feet.

The Lakers at 12-1.

Few give them a chance against the San Antonio Spurs in the best-of-seven Western Conference semifinals, which open today in the Alamodome.

This is the one team the Lakers had hoped to avoid. When asked if he was looking forward to playing the Spurs, Van Exel said Thursday, “No, not really.” And this is the converted football stadium that some players long ago said they don’t like because the cavernous feel makes shooting difficult.

In other words, the Lakers have the Spurs right where they want them.

“Everyone picked them to win it all,” Laker Eddie Jones said of the Spurs, at 62-20 the league’s winningest team during the regular season. “But forget about that. Forget about who’s picked to win. Everybody picked Seattle to beat us.”

Added Sam Bowie: “Personally, I think they are the best team in the league. I know they’re our biggest hurdle all year. But I don’t put anything past the guys in this locker room. They have beaten the odds all year long.”

People are skeptics only if they haven’t been paying attention. But this time, unlike in the Seattle series, the Spurs strike at the heart of the Laker weaknesses: physical play.

Only four teams had better rebounding percentages than San Antonio during the regular season; the Lakers finished 22nd. Vlade Divac did well against David Robinson--averaging 17.5 points and 13 boards--and Elden Campbell contributed eight rebounds a game, but L.A. still was outrebounded by about nine a game while losing three of the four games against the Spurs.

Those lost possessions will be magnified now. The Lakers were outrebounded in 13 of the last 14 regular-season games and now face Robinson, Dennis Rodman and the two reserves who played huge when Rodman was out because of a shoulder injury, J.R. Reid and Terry Cummings.

“You also have to contend with Sean Elliott, and the penetration of Avery Johnson and the three-point shooting of (Chuck) Person and (Vinny) Del Negro,” Coach Del Harris said. “They have a good inside and a good outside game.”

The Spurs have reason to be nervous too. They are concerned about the Lakers’ trapping and pressing; Johnson is only 5 feet 11, which means he could have trouble seeing over and around taller double teams. San Antonio does not have dependable ballhandlers at other positions, even if Del Negro has played some point guard in the past.

This is not simply idle worry. In the head-to-head games, the Spurs averaged 19.5 turnovers, compared to 15.2 during the season.

And unlike the Lakers, they have no depth at center (sorry, Jack Haley), so if Robinson gets in foul trouble, the Spurs get in trouble. Remember, this is the team that considered activating assistant coach Dave Cowens.

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Laker Notes

Maybe it’s becoming a Laker thing. They arrived at the Alamodome on Friday afternoon planning to shoot around for about 45 minutes--and the lights were off. Final revenge of the SuperSonics? . . . Elden Campbell drew the assignment on David Robinson most of the time during the regular season, but Laker Coach Del Harris plans to throw everything at the MVP candidate this series. “From time to time, if you’re a big guy, you’ll see some defensive time on David Robinson,” Harris said.

The Spurs have been off since beating the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. The Lakers, meanwhile, played an emotional game at the Forum on Thursday night, flew here Friday morning and had a light workout at the Alamodome, and now go right into a day game. “The guys are going to feel a little tired,” Nick Van Exel said of the Lakers. “Then again, we may be ready because we have been playing and they have not.”