Smooth Seas Ahead for Those Cruising for a Bargain : Discounts: A dip in consumer demand and more ships under construction may force the industry to cut prices.

Bargain-hunting cruise customers, take heart.

After a decade of rapid and consistent growth in the cruise industry, cruise lines are finding that while the shipyards are preparing to deliver a big batch of new vessels, consumer demand for cruise trips has slowed dramatically. The likely result: a highly competitive marketplace and continued deep discounts as the next few years unfold.

At first glance, the cruise business looks reasonably healthy. Last year, about 4.6 million Americans took cruises, a 15-year high and an increase of 100,000 over the previous year, according to statistics compiled by Cruise Lines International Assn. Beyond that, a recent CLIA survey found that just 8% of Americans had taken a cruise, leaving plenty of room for market growth. (CLIA’s 31 member cruise lines, which controlled 114 ships as this year began, make up the vast majority of the North American cruise lines.)

From 1980 until last year, the cruise industry had been gaining passengers at an annual rate of about 10%. But last year’s numbers from CLIA work out to just a 2% increase in passengers--the industry’s slowest growth since 1982.

It’s possible that this was a one-time phenomenon. Last year’s winter was relatively mild in the East (possibly leaving consumers less desperate for escape), and there were several highly publicized cruise snafus last year, most notably a choppy Atlantic crossing on a not-quite-renovated Queen Elizabeth 2. But it’s also possible that last year’s modest numbers are part of a larger trend.

For one thing, travelers are shortening the duration of their cruises. In 1980, 16.6% of cruise passengers were choosing itineraries of nine days or more. By 1993, that figure had shriveled to 9.8%.

Even worse for the cruise lines: In the next few years they will have to live with the consequences of past years’ optimism. Major cruise lines already have commitments to bring more than two dozen new ships into service in the next four years, pushing the total number of berths from about 101,882 as this year began to more than 143,000. Six new ships are expected this year, eight in 1996, seven in 1997 and six more in 1998, including two long-anticipated 2,400-passenger ships from Disney.

“There’s going to be a lot of capacity in the next few years. That’s the bottom line,” a CLIA spokeswoman says. She suggested that the removal of some ships from the market and the expansion of the cruise industry’s customer base could compensate for the heightened supply of ships. But others in the industry concede that stiffer competition, and possibly some price battles, lie ahead.

“If I were a cruise line executive at this time, I’d be concerned for my job because a lot of people are not going to look real good,” says Larry Fishkin, president of the Cruise Line, a Miami-based agency that booked roughly 30,000 travelers on cruises with various lines last year.

The consequence for consumers?

“I think that we will see across-the-board (price) reductions,” Fishkin says. “It’s hard for me to predict past 18 months, but in the near future, the consumer will benefit.”

Among cruises offered this summer, Fishkin notes, “the average per diem (rate) in Alaska is significantly lower than it was in recent years. As an average, I would say that it’s maybe $140-$150 a day.” That, Fishkin estimates, is probably 10% less than rates were running last year at this time.

Virtually all cruise lines have entered the fray in one way or another. For example, when Royal Cruise Line wanted to generate interest in the return of the re-christened 212-passenger Queen Odyssey (formerly the Royal Viking Queen) in January, the line began offering 2-for-1 discounts for those who book far ahead on many 1995 and 1996 itineraries in the Caribbean (winter) and Mediterranean (summer). Thus discounted, prices for a seven-day itinerary begin at $2,499 per person--a striking rate for such a small, luxurious ship.

Mike Hannan, owner of San Marin Travel in Novato, notes that for the last couple of years, cruise companies routinely have been selling cruises at discounts of 25% off brochure prices. Rather than seeing those discounts deepen, Hannan says he expects the reductions to remain about where they are now.

“I think there’s real danger here in the public coming to believe that 2-for-1 (discounts) are the standard. They are not,” Hannan says. But a cruise customer working well in advance with an alert travel agent, he suggests, should be able to undercut a cruise line’s brochure price by 25% to 30%.

With the cruise lines jostling for position this way, travelers should think not only about the quantity of their spending, but the quality of the experience they’ll be getting. Because so many new ships are coming on line, there will be plenty of bright, shiny hardware out there. But will they scrimp on service or other on-board amenities?

As always, consumers should ask a lot of questions and be sure that the character of a cruise line matches the kind of vacation they want. On this front, a shrewd travel agent can be invaluable.

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Reynolds travels anonymously at the newspaper’s expense, accepting no special discounts or subsidized trips. To reach him, write Travel Insider, Los Angeles Times, Times Mirror Square, Los Angeles 90053.