A Look at Contenders and Kingmakers : Contenders

The most frequently mentioned candidates to succeed Deng Xiaoping are:

* President Jiang Zemin, 68, the early favorite, holds all three top positions in the state and Communist Party. He became designated successor in 1989 when Deng Xiaoping named him as the “core” of the third generation of Communist leaders.

* Premier Li Peng, 66, a long shot, is the main hope of the hard-line faction of the party. But he lost key support with the death of senior leader Chen Yun in April. Li is also tainted by his strident defense of the army crackdown in Tian An Men Square in 1989.

* Vice Premier Zhu Rongji, 66, another long shot, is China’s economic czar and enjoys great popularity among businessmen outside China. Inside China, however, he is blamed by the people for China’s 20%-plus annual inflation and is distrusted by party old-timers.

* Qiao Shi, 70, chairman of the National People’s Congress, is viewed as a dark horse. Formerly head of the secret police and overseas intelligence operations, he is said to have contacts with both conservative and reformist wings. He gets a lot of air time on national TV.

* Zhao Ziyang, 76, a very long shot, was Deng Xiaoping’s choice as successor when the democracy movement began in Beijing in 1989. An avid reformer popular with younger, educated Chinese. But he was severely criticized inside the party for letting the Tian An Men demonstrations get out of control. Afterward, he was stripped of his posts as party general secretary and first vice chairman of the Military Affairs Commission. Ripe for rehabilitation.

Kingmakers

These include three survivors of the very old revolutionary leaders known as the “eight immortals.” They are Yang Shangkun, 88; Bo Yibo, 87; and Peng Zhen, 92. Other important old-timers include Wan Li, 79; Song Renqiong, 84; and Song Ping, 78.

No new Chinese leader can be expected to survive without a nod from one or two of these men. The most important are:

* Former President Yang Shangkun, 88, is the “king” kingmaker with vital military and political connections. In recent months, he has been on the road a lot, including a mid-January trip to Shenzhen. Healthiest of the gerontocracy set, he may want to take a swing at the “paramount leader” job himself.

* Wan Li, 79, is the retired former chairman of the Chinese People’s Congress and one of Deng Xiaoping’s closest chums. He is strong opponent of Premier Li Peng, who put him under house arrest temporarily after Tian An Men army crackdown in 1989. Part of Wan’s purported sway comes from a 1994 rumor that Deng designated him as the senior adviser to be consulted after Deng’s death.