Gulf States Cool to U.S. Campaign Against Iran : Mideast: Arabian nations join Europe in questioning strategy. Economic woes are of greater concern.

As the United States moves to further isolate what it regards as the outlaw regime in Iran, it is finding it difficult to recruit to the cause those countries seemingly most directly threatened, the oil-rich Arabian states on the Persian Gulf.

Out on what one Arab official calls “the front line” of potential confrontation with Tehran, the United States’ allies in the Gulf War--Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates--are pursuing their own policies on Iran, and not always in step with Washington.

The Gulf states’ stance follows the lack of enthusiasm exhibited by most European nations and Japan for the Clinton Administration’s trade ban on Iran.

The Administration is responding with a campaign of diplomatic persuasion and by emphasizing the continued close military cooperation among the Gulf states, the United States, Britain and France, according to diplomats and analysts in the region.

Few officials here dispute Iran’s growing military strength and its potential for mischief-making in the Gulf.

Shipping sources in this trading capital, for example, cite a handful of hijackings of civilian ships by speedboats believed to be operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Boat crews have boarded ships in international shipping lanes in the Gulf, forced them to divert to Iranian waters and then demanded payments of tens of thousands of dollars to release the vessels.

An official of the U.S. Navy in the region confirmed that one of its ships witnessed such a boarding of a seagoing tug and apparently frightened off the would-be hijackers.

Nor is there much doubt about Iran’s long-term ambitions of political, economic and military dominance in the region.

If Iran can establish itself as what one official called “the 500-pound gorilla in the Gulf,” it can influence everything from resolution of numerous border disputes to oil production and pricing.

Nonetheless, there is some skepticism that the Administration’s policy of trade barriers and economic isolation is the best way to influence the Tehran government.

“Squeezing Iran, as well as Iraq, with their huge populations . . . will just mean . . . more poverty, and that means more political instability. The price that might have to be paid will be paid directly by us,” said Kuwaiti economic consultant Jasem Sadoun in a typical analysis.

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Some of the Gulf states continue to see Iraq as the greater immediate threat. Others have economic incentives for maintaining good relations with Iran.

Oman, which sits opposite Iran on the strategic Strait of Hormuz, has cultivated an independent foreign policy that is building bridges not only to Iran but to Israel.

Moreover, the U.S. initiative on Iran comes at a time when the Gulf nations are increasingly preoccupied with domestic financial issues.

“The main problem in the Gulf is the deficit in public finance,” Sadoun said.

The six countries on the Arabian side of the Gulf project a combined budget deficit of more than $9 billion this year, thanks to flat oil prices, the costs of social programs and continued military spending.

Kuwait, for example, spends more per capita on defense than any nation in the world, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, which monitors international arms dealing.

Since the end of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Kuwait has upgraded its armed forces with top-of-the-line fighter attack aircraft, tanks and antiaircraft missiles, and it is shopping for more.

The government is reported to be in preliminary talks with Los Angeles-based Hughes Aircraft Co. on purchasing an advanced missile system capable of knocking out incoming cruise missiles.

Such deals are being repeated up and down the Arabian side of the Gulf, although Saudi Arabia, feeling the deficit pinch, has said it is suspending arms purchases.

An admittedly cynical view advanced by some analysts is that the U.S. alarms about Iran were raised with economic motivations.

Noting the visit of U.S. Defense Secretary William J. Perry to the Gulf in March, during which he issued warnings about an Iranian military buildup, London-based analyst Michael Burns observed: “I think it was no coincidence that there was a large arms fair going on at the same time in Abu Dhabi. It’s in the interest of the West to play up the [Iranian] threat to help arms sales on the Arab side of the Gulf.”

Despite the billions spent on arms since the Gulf War, however, military sources say the Gulf countries could not fight off a concentrated attack by Iran or Iraq without U.S. help.

The U.S. Navy keeps 15 to 20 ships in the region most of the time; the Air Force maintains a base in Saudi Arabia, and U.S. military equipment is positioned throughout the area.

“There’s going to be a continued U.S. [military] presence for the foreseeable future,” said Saud al Sabah, Kuwait’s minister of information and a former ambassador to the United States. “As long as the region is going through the turbulence it’s going through, the United States, as well as the British and French, will have to be here.”

Asked how long that might be, Saud noted that U.S. troops have been in Europe for 50 years.

Even with its strong relationship with the United States, however, Kuwait is pursuing a policy of detente with Iran.

A Kuwaiti Cabinet official recently went to Tehran to arrange educational and scientific exchanges.

A Western diplomat supportive of the U.S. position said American policy-makers have to be understanding about such initiatives, especially in Kuwait, which lies in the shadow of Iraq and Iran.

“If you’re at absolute dagger’s point with one, you’d better be on good relations with the other,” he said. “You don’t want to be public enemy No. 1 in Tehran as well as Baghdad.”

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But concerns similar to Kuwait’s are being voiced elsewhere.

“We’re the ones who have to live with them” is a frequent refrain.

Qatar, for example, shares an undersea natural gas field with Iran in the Gulf. It is in both countries’ economic interest to maintain civil relations and exploit that resource.

Arab officials recall with dread the turbulent period that began with the Iranian revolution in 1979, led to the Iran-Iraq War and only ended with the death of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. They do not want to see a resumption of those tensions.

Saudi Arabia, a sturdy U.S. ally, is seen as backing the U.S. position, as is Bahrain, which has indirectly accused Iran of fomenting unrest in Bahrain’s countryside.

But many European and Arab diplomats advocate a more flexible approach.

They say the West should stand fast against Iranian-sponsored terrorism but try to encourage what they see as more moderate elements. They are dispirited by the collapse last month of the tentative economic liberalization program advanced by Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani. That program crumbled after the plunge of the Iranian currency, a result of the enactment of the trade ban.

The U.S. position is that there are no moderates in the Iranian power structure and that the suggestion that Rafsanjani is some kind of pragmatist ignores the support for terrorism carried out during his administration.

“Nobody is better at that [terrorism] arguably in the world than the Iranians and their friends . . . and most of it has been carried out on Rafsanjani’s watch,” one diplomat said.

The United States has sought to bridge its differences with its Gulf allies by stressing continued military cooperation, a formula with demonstrated success in the Gulf War and in forcing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to back down last October when he began massing troops near the Kuwaiti border.

Most analysts in the region, however, question whether the United States can ultimately win widespread support for its policy on Iran.

“Where is the consensus on Iran? There isn’t one,” said Tim Sullivan, chairman of the political science department at the American University in Cairo. “Other countries don’t agree with us, and they aren’t all going to cooperate.”

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Gulf Cooperation Council

Saudi Arabia

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

United Arab Emirates