Popejoy Sees Measure R Falling Further Behind : Election: ‘The anger is huge,’ CEO says. He believes voters are mad enough to hurt themselves by rejecting tax.

Orange County’s top executive Tuesday offered his gloomiest assessment yet of the prospects for Measure R, saying he fears support for the half-cent sales tax increase is eroding even as supporters try to overcome voter outrage about the county’s bankruptcy.

County Chief Executive Officer William J. Popejoy said a recent poll suggests that voters are so angry about the county’s financial mess that they are willing to reject a higher sales tax, even if it means they ultimately will hurt themselves.

“The anger is huge,” said Popejoy, a former savings and loan executive who is working for the county for free. “They’re saying, ‘We’re probably going to hurt ourselves more than anyone else.’ How do you overcome that? I don’t know.”

Popejoy said the poll, conducted for the Yes on Measure R Committee, shows support for the tax continues to slip as the June 27 election nears.

Just a few weeks ago, a poll for the committee indicated a dead heat between backers and foes of the measure. Now, the numbers have “yes” votes trailing the “no” votes by 5 to 8 percentage points, according to Popejoy.

The measure must garner a simple majority vote to pass.

The poll is the latest to suggest defeat for Measure R, which would increase the sales tax from 7.75% to 8.25%--the same as Los Angeles County--for 10 years. The measure would raise an estimated $130 million a year, against which the county could borrow to help bail itself out of the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Popejoy and other supporters of Measure R are striving to convince county voters that the sales tax is critical to maintaining health and safety services and pay nearly $2 billion in debt.

Opponents, including one of the county’s elected supervisors, contend that the county has not exhausted all its alternatives before turning to a sales tax increase.

“If anything, we seem to be slipping,” said Popejoy, adding that polls show a large number of people still remain undecided--and are likely to be targeted in upcoming weeks.

“It looks like we’ve got to make up a lot of ground” between now and the election, he said.

The gap is even worse when it comes to absentee ballot voters, said Popejoy, who described that margin as “nasty.” Actual figures weren’t immediately available, he said.

Absentee ballot voters are expected to play a key role on the fate of Measure R, as officials fear low voter turnout for the single-issue election. As of Tuesday, nearly 128,000 voters had requested absentee ballots, a record for a special election, officials said.

Some question whether the poll results are accurate.

“I think they are trailing by more than that,” said Bruce Whitaker of the Committees of Correspondence, a vocal anti-tax group.

Whitaker said he has no formal polls to point to, but believes opposition is running about 60% to 40% against Measure R. “From what we are hearing, there is overwhelming opposition. I doubt that it’s as close as they say.”

But Popejoy said Measure R backers are “not trying to fool ourselves or anyone else.”

Popejoy said he has been taken aback by the number of vocal Orange County residents who are so philosophically opposed to the tax that they do not care about the consequences and see the bankruptcy as an opportunity to raze county government.

“Unfortunately, you run into a core group that is almost gleeful about all this,” Popejoy said. “I see this as an opportunity to redesign government, but they see this as an opportunity to melt down, destroy” government.

The tax’s failure could have a devastating impact on the county, which has already laid off nearly 1,000 workers and slashed its operating budget by 41%, jeopardizing health, welfare and public safety funding levels, Measure R backers said.

Defeat at the polls might result in defaults on bonds, which could mar the county’s ability to borrow into the future and its reputation as one of the wealthiest spots in the nation.

Popejoy has argued that the tax will cost about $50 a person per year, but the tax’s failure could end up costing residents more.

But those arguments have been met with skepticism and bitterness.

Opponents, however, say the county should do more to more to raise money and cut costs by privatizing services, selling assets and making further cuts to the budget and county work force.

Anti-tax activists have vowed to launch the “mother of all recall elections” if the tax passes.

But not everyone viewed the poll results as dismal.

“I’m surprised it’s that close,” said Supervisor William G. Steiner, who supports Measure R. “Everybody is predicting defeat, but I would say it’s not over until it’s over.”

“That’s hopeful,” said Connie Haddad, co-chairwoman of the Yes on Measure R Committee and president of the League of Women Voters of Orange County. “Five to 8% [behind] sounds like a close-able gap. That sounds like something we can work with.”

Another committee member, Reed Royalty of the Orange County Taxpayers Assn., reflected Popejoy’s concerns that voter anger may lead to Measure R’s defeat. Royalty, however, said he remains optimistic about Measure R’s chances.

“When you talk to people who oppose Measure R, their faces turn red and their veins stand out,” Royalty said. “And when people feel so passionately, they vote. People in favor of the tax increase have no passion, because they don’t like it but they think it’s the best of a lot of bad choices. That worries me. But I think it can be done.”

Popejoy’s remarks Tuesday came after a Board of Supervisors meeting at which a local anti-tax activist drew laughs when she offered Popejoy--who is blamed for getting the tax on the ballot--two crisp dollar bills to leave his county post. Another audience member quickly jumped up, waving $100 for the same purpose.

Afterward, Popejoy joked about raising money by selling “Popejoy Departure Bonds” to help bail out the county.

“If I thought it would get the job done, it would be the least I would do,” Popejoy said, shaking his head.

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