THE TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : Measure R Still Falling Well Short of Majority : Survey of both all voters and likely voters shows tax increase in trouble. Undecideds could make difference.

With little more than two weeks to go before a crucial election, support among Orange County voters for a tax proposal aimed at yanking the county out of its bankruptcy crisis falls short of a majority, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

Voters are divided on the proposed half-cent sales tax increase, with opponents outnumbering supporters by 45% to 40%, the poll shows. The contest is still fluid, however; 15% of those surveyed are undecided on the levy, which will go before the voters in a special election on June 27.

For those leading the campaign to pass the tax increase, known as Measure R, the poll contained another drop of bitter news: The gap is wider among those considered most likely to vote. Of likely voters, 50% say they oppose the tax hike, 37% are in favor and 13% have yet to make up their minds.

“I think it’s very much an uphill battle,” acknowledged Paul S. Nussbaum, top adviser to County Chief Executive Officer William J. Popejoy. Popejoy, the architect of the county’s bankruptcy recovery plan, has been the top advocate of Measure R, persuading the Board of Supervisors in March to place the tax increase before the voters.

“As has been said from the very beginning, this issue is difficult and obviously very complicated,” said Board Chairman Gaddi H. Vasquez, who has said he will vote for the tax. “It has to do, in the long term, with our ability to build the facilities and structures that are so important to our quality of life in Orange County. That’s what’s in jeopardy here.”

Measure R would raise the sales tax from 7.75% to 8.25%--the same as in Los Angeles County--for 10 years. It would raise $130 million annually, against which the county could borrow to help bail itself out of the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Supporters, who include three of the five county supervisors and other top county officials, say passage of the tax hike is necessary to maintain health and safety services and repay nearly $2 billion in debts.

Opponents, including Supervisor Jim Silva, contend that county leaders did not exhaust other alternatives before turning to the sales tax increase. Supervisor Roger R. Stanton has yet to announce his position on Measure R.

Still, the new poll suggests that the Yes on R campaign, aided by a barrage of mailers and vocal support from Popejoy and Sheriff Brad Gates, has gained some ground in the past two months.

In April, soon after the Board of Supervisors decided to place the tax hike on the ballot, 57% of those surveyed in a Times Orange County Poll said they would vote against the measure, compared to 45% today.

But most of those former opponents appear now to be fence-sitters, not supporters of Measure R--at least not yet. The number of undecided voters has nearly doubled during the period, from 7% in April to 15% today. The percentage who say they will vote for the tax hike, meanwhile, is up only slightly, from 36% two months ago to 40% now.

Both polls were conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The current poll was conducted June 2-5. The random telephone survey questioned 1,002 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3% for the total, and plus or minus 5% for the sample of 397 likely voters.

Supervisor William G. Steiner, who is supporting the measure, said he takes heart from the poll’s high percentage of undecided voters, saying he hopes some may yet be induced to back the tax.

“With this increased number of undecided voters, the need to educate them to make an informed choice is even more important than before,” Steiner said. “It shows that [the tax increase] still has a chance.”

But the poll also found a deep undercurrent of alienation and distrust of county government among those opposed to the so-called bankruptcy recovery tax. Responses to the poll suggest that for many people, a No vote on the tax proposal is closely linked to a low regard for county leaders and concern that money already given to the county in taxes is being squandered.

“The taxpayer is always standing in the wings and we’re supposed to take it and take it,” said Harry Smissen, 61, of Laguna Niguel, who plans to vote No. “I’m just not going to do it this time. . . . It just sticks in my craw.”

Smissen, an inventory manager for a company that builds telephone systems, said he might be less negative about the tax if the supervisors in office at the time of the bankruptcy had resigned.

But unless those three--Vasquez, Stanton and Steiner--step down, Smissen said, “I don’t think we should stand for this tax. We’ve stood for enough.”

Nussbaum said he believes that the outrage Orange County residents feel over the financial debacle may actually be increasing, making passage of the sales tax an even greater challenge than before. “I think the anger factor may contribute to some people not even voting, essentially abdicating their responsibility,” he said.

In the poll, nearly 4 in 10 of those who said they would vote against Measure R said they opposed the idea of any new tax. Another 28% said they believed it was unfair to be asked to pay for the mistakes of others, 9% said there were other ways to raise money, and 5% said they were rejecting the increase because there were no guarantees on how it would be used.

Of those who said they plan to vote for the tax increase, just over 3 in 10 said they believe the tax hike is the only way to raise enough money to boost the county out of its crisis.

Another 15% said they believe the tax increase would help end the bankruptcy quickly, 10% said it would protect schools and law enforcement from further cuts, and 9% said it would help pay back the cities and school districts that lost money in the county’s failed investment pool.

“I’m convinced that it’s necessary, partly to help protect the schools,” said Ken Sims of Buena Park, a 37-year-old aerospace engineer. “I don’t have children but I’m very, very concerned about that issue. It’s something we just need to do.”

For his part, said county employee Robert Wilbert, 53, voting Yes on the tax increase is no longer a matter of intention: He has already mailed in an absentee ballot bearing his vote.

“We just need to get this bankruptcy over with,” said Wilbert, a groundskeeper at Ronald W. Caspers Wilderness Park and an official with the Service Employees International Union, local 187, which represents 525 blue-collar county workers. “We all have to move forward and stop the blame game.”

Another part of his reasoning, Wilbert said, was the hope that passage of the sales tax might help him and other county employees hang onto their jobs. With more than 1,000 workers already laid off, the fear of even deeper cuts is widespread among county employees. “It’s an undercurrent for everyone,” he said.

But such direct concerns about the bankruptcy’s impact appear to have eased in recent weeks, the poll found, and might be one reason it is trailing at this point, said Baldassare, a professor of urban planning at UC Irvine.

Most poll respondents--and Orange County residents as a whole--have yet to experience any direct impact of the financial crisis on themselves, their school districts or their cities.

Baldassare said it was easier for Orange County residents to see the reasons to vote for Measure M, the half-cent sales tax increase approved in 1990 to finance transportation improvements. “They could see that whenever they got on the freeways,” Baldassare said.

In contrast to the anti-tax sentiment in the current poll, Measure M trailed by only one percentage point two months before it passed, according to a Times Orange County Poll taken then. One month before the election, a poll found it to be winning by a substantial margin, 47% to 37%.

This time, though, in a finding that could spell bad news for the Yes on R campaign, fears about the bankruptcy’s impact appear to have leveled off in the past two months. Only three in 10 respondents said they were aware of cuts in local services or programs that would affect them directly, about the same as in April.

“I haven’t seen any personal impacts at all and I don’t think I will see any,” said Irving Halvorsen, 61, a Huntington Beach resident who manages a transmission business. “I don’t think we’ll see riots in the streets or crime going up. It’s just a bunch of scare stuff, as far as I’m concerned.”

The poll also showed that fewer voters than before now feel that the quality of education in their school districts and the quality of life in Orange County will be affected “a lot” by the bankruptcy.

“If you haven’t lost your job, I think most people probably have not felt [the bankruptcy] at all,” Supervisor Marian Bergeson said.

“Most people probably haven’t seen a change in their quality of life, but it’s really the long-term, cumulative impact that is the reason to support this tax. What happens down the road when we don’t have the money to make the payments for all the debts?”

In the meantime, voters such as Tom Barnes, 52, of San Clemente are still struggling with a decision on Measure R. Barnes, a Democrat, a high school teacher and a former Seal Beach city councilman, said he is leaning toward a No vote, but is still torn. Most of his teaching colleagues are supporting the tax hike, he said, and some are actively involved in the campaign.

But Barnes said he is troubled that the focus in the past two months seems to have shifted to discussion of the sales tax and away from what he views as an opportunity to “redo” county government by making fundamental changes in its size and structure.

“I think if they had taken that approach, really trying to use [the bankruptcy] as a chance to restructure the government, they would have won over people like me,” Barnes said, admitting that he might yet change his mind. “But I don’t think they have. To me, they just seem to be looking for a reward for business as usual.”

MONDAY: Fighing to overcome voter anger and mistrust, the Yes on R campaign has spent lavishly and flooded the county with mail in the past month while managing to keep its campaign viable, if just barely.

* IN LEADERS THEY DISTRUST: Opposition tied to negative view of county officials. A16

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How This Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The random-sample telephone survey of 1,002 Orange County registered voters was conducted June 2-5 on weekday nights and weekend days. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3% at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain the results are within three percentage points of what they would be if every registered voter in the county were interviewed. For the subgroup of 397 likely voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 5%.

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Measure R Support

If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure R? Responses from all and likely voters:

April June Yes 36% 40% No 57% 45% Don’t know 7% 15%

Likely voters Yes on R: 37% No on R: 50% Don’t know: 13%

Voter Patience Taxed

Measure R is trailing because most voters don’t want to pay new taxes for what they perceive as the mistakes and wastefulness of county government leaders. Proponents believe taxation is the only way to raise enough money to pay debts and quickly end the bankruptcy. The statement voters appear to be making is “Why should we give them more of our money to waste?”

Why Voters Oppose Measure R (among 45% saying no) No new taxes: 38% Unfair to pay for other’s mistakes: 28% Other ways to raise money, sell assets: 9% No guarantees on tax’s use: 5% ***

Why Voters Support Measure R (among 40% saying yes) Only way to raise enough money: 32% End bankruptcy quickly: 15% Protect schools, law enforcement: 10% Pay back cities, school districts: 9% ***

In general, do you think the people who run county government waste . . . the money we pay in taxes? A lot: 51% Some: 40% Very little/none: 6% Don’t know: 3% ***

When your county government leaders decide what policies to adopt, how much attention do you think they pay to what the people think? A lot of attention: 5% Some attention: 40% Very little/no attention: 53% Don’t know: 2% ***

How would you rate the job performance of the Orange County Board of Supervisors in handling the county’s financial crisis? Excellent/good: 12% Only fair: 33% Poor: 49% Don’t know: 6% ***

How would you rate the job performance of county Chief Executive Officer William J. Popejoy in handling the county’s financial crisis? Excellent/good: 35% Only fair: 33% Poor: 16% Don’t know: 16% ***

How would you rate the overall job performance of:

Supervisor Excellent/Good Fair Poor Don’t Know Marian Bergeson 19% 24% 15% 42% William G. Steiner 11% 24% 16% 49% Jim Silva 11% 23% 18% 48% Gaddi H. Vasquez 11% 23% 22% 44% Roger R. Stanton 9% 24% 20% 47%

Source: Times Orange County Poll