County Home Sales Slide 20.4% in May
Good weather and the start of the traditional real estate season couldn’t pull May’s Ventura County housing sales out of their ongoing slump, as 20.4% fewer homes were sold than during the same time last year.
Sales dropped from 952 in May, 1994, to 758 last month, according to TRW-REDI Property Data. This marks the fourth month in a row that sales have declined in comparison to 1994 figures.
“It’s been absolutely a blood bath in the last four months in Ventura County and in most counties in Southern California,” said Mark Schniepp, an economist with UC Santa Barbara.
“The consensus has to be that this year will represent a lower sales volume than 1994,” said Nima Nattagh, an analyst with TRW. “It makes me think there is some fundamental weakness in the market.”
The weakness, Nattagh said, is that home prices remain far below their levels of five or six years ago. “That’s definitely holding back a lot of people from trading up,” he said.
Gaye Rainey, sales manager for the Jon Douglas Co. realtors in Ventura, agreed. Homeowners who bought at the market’s peak in 1989 and 1990 may be ready to move, she said, but remain trapped by homes that have shrunk in value.
“You have a lot of people who can’t sell and can’t move on,” she said.
Although sales in Ventura dropped 13.1% between May, 1994, and last month, the average price rose from $193,552 to $221,330. But Rainey doubted that prices would return to their previous highs, which had been fueled, she said, by real estate speculation.
“Now we’re back to a more normal market, if you will,” she said. “People are going to be buying their homes for homes.”
Countywide, the average price of homes sold in May stood at $229,101, up from $226,520 last year. Nattagh, however, cautioned that those numbers reflected only the homes sold, not the overall value of the market. He said area housing prices are still falling, though the rate of decline has slowed. He doesn’t expect prices to make serious gains any time soon.
“I think the most optimistic scenario is a stabilizing of property values,” he said.
Still, local realtors hold out hope that sales will improve during the year’s second half.
“I still am very optimistic, because we have everything here,” said Mary Hall, president of the Conejo Valley Realtors Assn. “Interest rates have fallen again, there’s a good selection of properties on the market, the buyers are out there.”
Buyers can now find fixed-rate loans below 8%, she said. “The buyers I’m working with right now are very well aware that they can do a lot with that,” she said.
Schniepp expects low interest rates to continue throughout the summer. Home sales should also get a lift, he said, from pockets of strength in the county’s economy. Demand for consumer products is up, and that urge to buy should eventually cross over into real estate.
“Let’s give it one more month before we write off the home market this year,” he said. “I’m still looking for a rebound. . . . It’s just a matter of time.”
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Ventura County House Sales May, 1994:
City/ZIP code Number of sales Average price CAMARILLO 93010 73 $234,871 93012 29 $340,426 93066 2 $448,000 FILLMORE 93015 12 $162,455 MOORPARK 93021 60 $202,500 OAK VIEW 93022 4 $171,500 OJAI 93023 22 $261,864 OAK PARK 91301 50 $316,720 91304 0 $0 OXNARD 93030 79 $176,351 93033 35 $140,803 93035 40 $236,650 PIRU 93040 0 $0 PORT HUENEME 93041 28 $164,019 SANTA PAULA 93060 31 $166,548 SIMI VALLEY 91307 5 $522,200 91311 1 $120,045 93063 57 $189,123 93065 84 $190,614 THOUSAND OAKS 91320 63 $256,425 91360 64 $230,689 91361 28 $318,904 91362 55 $340,824 VENTURA 93001 39 $184,300 93003 57 $195,421 93004 34 $200,934 COUNTY LINE / CANYON AREA 90265 -- -- COUNTYWIDE 952 $226,520
*May, 1995:
City/ZIP code Number of sales Average price CAMARILLO 93010 54 $217,125 93012 28 $243,630 93066 0 $0 FILLMORE 93015 8 $176,438 MOORPARK 93021 45 $258,556 OAK VIEW 93022 8 $164,250 OJAI 93023 25 $237,300 OAK PARK 91301 20 $263,800 91304 0 $0 OXNARD 93030 50 $196,970 93033 27 $151,120 93035 29 $232,732 PIRU 93040 0 $0 PORT HUENEME 93041 10 $142,944 SANTA PAULA 93060 13 $133,808 SIMI VALLEY 91307 4 $443,625 91311 0 $0 93063 68 $179,652 93065 92 $204,623 THOUSAND OAKS 91320 39 $250,170 91360 55 $235,820 91361 17 $301,969 91362 49 $400,867 VENTURA 93001 23 $257,452 93003 39 $181,372 93004 51 $225,167 COUNTY LINE / CANYON AREA 90265 2 $199,500 COUNTYWIDE 758 $229,101
Source: TRW-REDI Property Data
