Wilson Stumps as Underdog Who Can Win

As California Gov. Pete Wilson wrapped up a recent blitz of presidential campaigning at a drizzly, small-town barbecue here Sunday, he found himself in a familiar position as the underdog candidate.

Just as in his drive for reelection last year, when he won a surprisingly easy victory after trailing badly in early polls, Wilson’s path to the White House appears as if it will require a trip to the edge of oblivion and back.

At stops in Florida, Iowa, Texas, Colorado and New Hampshire over the past 1 1/2 weeks, Wilson sought to reassure prospective backers that he can still run a strong race for the Republican presidential nomination despite doubts that festered during nearly two months of doctor-ordered silence following throat surgery in April.

“I will tell you, we have a history of winning,” Wilson said Saturday. Dressed casually in short sleeves, he made his appeal to an uncommitted audience of about 100 people outside a summer home overlooking the rocky Atlantic coast near the resort community of North Hampton, N.H.

“Last fall, the political pundits had given me up for dead,” he continued. “But we came from 24 points behind [in the polls] and turned an upset into a landslide.”

Wilson enjoyed one of his best presidential campaign experiences so far this weekend in New Hampshire.

He was met Saturday by a crowd of more than 50 reporters and TV camera crews when he arrived in the downtown historic district of Portsmouth. But the scene quickly became chaotic as Wilson tried to shake hands with residents while the surging media throng stumbled into hot dog carts, horse-drawn carriages and sidewalk diners.

At four events Saturday and a gathering Sunday, Wilson did not prove that he had made any converts. But unlike some other recent appearances, he found audiences who wanted to listen. It was a weekend that Wilson would like to duplicate many times in the next few months as he seeks a toehold in key states where other GOP presidential contenders have been diligently recruiting supporters for months. But skepticism about his ultimate chances remains high, both among ordinary voters and pundits.

“I’d say he’s got a tough row to hoe here just to get up to speed with the other candidates,” said Jim Wallace, who talked briefly with Wilson at the barbecue in Gilmanton on Sunday that was plastered with signs and stickers for the governor’s rivals.

Meanwhile, William Schneider, an independent political analyst in Washington, said of Wilson’s campaign: “There is no momentum there--none.”

As Wilson knows, his recent difficulty is testimony to the quickness with which political doors can open and close. Late last year, he basked in the glory of his reelection and corresponding rise in national prominence.

From that plateau, he launched the most ambitious political agenda of his gubernatorial career--promising to overhaul California’s schools, its courts and its rule books, as well as reward its residents with a 15% income tax cut. Then, in mid-March, amid speculation that he would rank as one of the top-tier candidates, he announced he would prepare a campaign for the White House.

Today, barely three months later, Wilson is struggling to prove that he can achieve his goals for the state and make even a credible presidential run. The huge demands of his simultaneous responsibilities at home in Sacramento and on the campaign trail have already overwhelmed the governor’s schedule and, occasionally, forced him to choose between divided loyalties.

“I do not envy his position,” said Steven Merksamer, once chief of staff to former Republican Gov. George Deukmejian. “This is going to be his biggest test--reconciling his legislative duties, which are very important to him, with his presidential interests, which are very important to him. But if anybody can do it, Wilson can.”

Still, the past 1 1/2 weeks have provided examples of the daunting obstacles that can be expected.

While Wilson was hopping around the country, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors asked him to call a special session of the Legislature to help resolve the county’s financial crisis; federal authorities announced they will investigate the governor’s admission that he may have employed an illegal immigrant maid more than 15 years ago; California was tentatively targeted for two of the nation’s biggest military base closures, and in the state Assembly, lawmakers continued a bitter power struggle instead of preparing an overdue state budget.

Such problems have allowed some of Wilson’s critics to renew their charge that he has abandoned California to run for President.

“The governor is the captain of the ship and the crew is running around without direction,” Bill Lockyer, the Democratic leader of the state Senate, said last week.

Referring to Wilson’s recent travels, Lockyer said: “It’s an abdication of his responsibility. I just think he should be here doing more to get things moving.”

Despite their glee at Wilson’s dilemma, his presidential rivals say they do not think his problems will prevent him from being a formidable candidate. His campaigns have always proved successful at raising money. And, as he tells his audiences, he has a reputation as a tenacious campaigner who has enjoyed the last laugh at those who counted him out too soon.

“You cannot underestimate Pete Wilson,” said Gary Koops, spokesman for another GOP presidential candidate, Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas.

Wilson’s fortunes may depend on his response to a pair of major challenges he faces this summer.

In Sacramento, Wilson is trying to push his plans for a state budget that is already behind schedule and mired in partisan squabbles. And in the presidential race, his recent excursion underscored the massive job he still faces in trying to gear up his campaign.

“We need to get a ground organization going here,” Craig Fuller, Wilson’s campaign chairman, said Sunday in New Hampshire. “There’s no question [the state’s voters] like to see these candidates and shake their hands.”

Last Monday, campaign officials were making similar comments in Iowa. Indeed, in the two leadoff contests of the presidential race--Iowa and New Hampshire--Wilson is a largely unknown candidate who ranks near the bottom of early polls. And especially compared to his main rivals, Wilson has recruited just a handful of local supporters who, with the exception of Massachusetts Gov. William F. Weld, lack widespread name recognition.

Wilson campaign officials say they have heard from many people in Iowa and New Hampshire who would like to support him if they are assured he will wage a serious campaign. But for now, they are staying on the sidelines, in part because Wilson’s campaign is not committing him to a schedule of visits on account of his state duties.

There are plenty of other challenges in crucial primary states that will keep Wilson’s campaign team busy.

Wilson hopes to do especially well in Florida’s primary March 12. But during his stop in the that state nine days ago, he acknowledged that his focus on the illegal immigration issue has given pause to the state’s influential, and largely Republican, Cuban community.

In New York, Wilson’s camp has been forced to work one congressional district at a time to try to gain access to the ballot because a hostile state Republican Party is trying to clear the field for Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole’s campaign. And in Arizona, which votes early in next year’s primary season, Wilson is battling an already well-entrenched Gramm.

In Wilson’s home state, observers believe that his performance on the state budget this summer could harm his presidential campaign to the extent that it affects many of the strengths it was assumed he would bring to the race.

One of the key perceptions at stake is that Wilson can carry California as a presidential candidate. Recent polls have shown him to be trailing Dole in a primary faceoff and President Clinton in a general election matchup.

“Wilson has one big thing going for him in this race that makes him a serious contender--California,” analyst Schneider said. “Clinton cannot win reelection without California. If you can deny Clinton California, you win. But that’s a big problem for [Wilson]. He’s got to turn the polls around. He has to take care of his base.”