Orange County Votes on Sales Tax Increase Today

Voters get their first say on Orange County’s fiscal fiasco today, defining what they expect in the future from county government by casting ballots on a sales tax increase intended to speed up the county’s rescue from bankruptcy.

Polls over the past several weeks have predicted the tax proposal, known as Measure R, will be routed.

But with a record number of absentee ballots already returned, analysts and activists say the turnout could be high enough to give the measure a fighting chance.

“You don’t give up. You just keep working until 8 o’clock at night,” said Dana Reed, a lawyer and longtime county politico working for the Yes on R Committee.

“It’s like not running for a fly ball. You run at a fly ball, period. You don’t slack off and you don’t quit before the polls close,” Reed added.

The sentiment was similar on the other side, where tax opponents planned to have about two dozen volunteers making telephone calls to prospective voters Monday night.

“Everybody thinks it’s going to go our way, but I am concerned about complacency,” said Thomas Rogers, a former Republican Party leader helping run the campaign against Measure R. “I have been through too many campaigns and been lulled into that thinking and then had a rude awakening Tuesday night. So I’m not taking anything for granted.”

Certain that Measure R is headed toward defeat, Orange County’s legislative delegation in Sacramento has scheduled a meeting for Wednesday morning to map out its strategy, which is expected to include a renewed push for the sale of assets and yet another bid to tap funds from Measure M, an earlier sales tax increase designated for transportation improvements.

Alone on the ballot in today’s special election, Measure R would boost Orange County’s sales tax rate for a decade to 8.25% from 7.75%, bringing in about $130 million a year.

It is the linchpin of the county’s bankruptcy recovery plan, which seeks to plug the $1.7-billion hole left by former Treasurer Robert L. Citron’s losing bet on interest rates last year.

But opponents--including a coalition of grass-roots organizations and virtually all of the county’s state and federal legislators--say the county has ignored other revenue-raising alternatives and could write off some of its debt rather than boost taxes.

Polls are open today from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

Campaign reports show that Measure R supporters raised about $1.5 million, while the opponents collected $87,000--including a last-minute $7,000 infusion from the county GOP.

By Monday, the money was gone. The news conferences were over. The last piece of mail had been sent.

“We’re not doing much except crossing our fingers,” said Mike Shepherd, an auto dealer who helped lead Citizens Against a Tax Increase.

“Tomorrow, we sit with our fingers crossed,” said Shepherd’s adversary, Dan Wooldridge, a consultant who ran the Measure R campaign for police unions and other public safety groups.

Leaders on both sides of the vote planned to have routine business schedules today, free of the frequent political appearances that have dotted their calendars for months.

Measure R supporters have said they would need a 40% turnout for the tax increase to have a chance of passage.

“The main message we’re trying to get out is that people should get out and vote on this issue. Everybody should have their say,” said Stu Mollrich, lead consultant for the Measure R campaign. “This election is too important to have it decided by a third of the people. This is really the time for everybody to be heard.”

As of Saturday, 129,123 absentee ballots had been returned, according to the acting registrar, Rosalyn Lever. An additional 46,000 absentee ballots had been sent out and could be returned Monday or today, she said.

Political experts say absentees will make up 20% to 50% of the overall votes cast. If the absentees in this election are half the total ballots, the turnout would be only about 25% of Orange County’s 1.1 million registered voters. But if absentees are 20% of the total, turnout would be about 65%.

Lever refused to predict the turnout, saying only that the absentee numbers were “high for a special election, definitely.”

Most people involved in the campaigns acknowledged the uniqueness of this election and said it is difficult to guess at today’s outcome, despite lopsided opinion polls that showed Measure R failing by anywhere from 5 to 20 points.

“I hope the polls are wrong,” County Chief Executive Officer William J. Popejoy said Monday. “I can’t imagine where we could have tried any harder. I’m sorry we couldn’t have raised more money enabling us to communicate better.”

Sheriff Brad Gates and county financial adviser Christopher Varelas--tax proponents both--said they were encouraged by their personal, albeit anecdotal surveys.

Last week while playing pool, Varelas asked people he met whether they planned to vote, and how. All, he said, were enthusiastic Measure R supporters.

At a dinner party this weekend, a friend told the sheriff that two foursomes of golfers he encountered on the links all planned to vote yes.

“The more I talk to the person on the street, my confidence goes up. When I get around the political insiders or the pollsters, I think we’re having a tough time,” Gates said. “I don’t know what to say at this point. I guess we’ll just have to wait until tomorrow to find out.”

Times staff writers Eric Bailey in Sacramento and Mark Platte in Costa Mesa contributed to this report.