June County Home Sales Down 21.9% Since Last Year
Despite a sharp increase last month, Ventura County home sales continued a prolonged slump, with 21.9% fewer sales in June than during the same period last year.
Countywide, home sales totaled 890 in June, down from 1,140 the year before, according to TRW-REDI Property Data.
Sales increased 17.4% from May to June. But May home sales were 20.4% below May, 1994.
“We are in some sort of real estate malaise,” said Mark Schniepp, an economist with UC Santa Barbara.
“The people are out there looking, but they’re not moving quickly,” said Judy Hoag, a broker with Paris and Associates Real Estate in Ventura and past president of the Ventura Assn. of Realtors.
That malaise has now gripped the market for five consecutive months. Since February, county sales figures for each month have shown a decline from the previous year.
There were 3,940 sales for the first half of this year, down about 20% from 1994.
Economists and real estate agents blame sluggish sales on several problems, chiefly a slowing economic recovery in Southern California. Local companies are still cutting jobs, Schniepp said, and individual incomes are staying flat.
“I’m not going to say we’re relapsing,” he said, “but I think the strength of the recovery is moderating.”
Nima Nattagh, an analyst at TRW-REDI, said low property values, well below their peak in 1989, have made homes cheaper but also held the market back. Homeowners whose houses have declined in value cannot afford to shop for new ones, he said. Others avoid buying a home for fear that values could shrink still more.
“People are not quite sure that home ownership is worth it,” he said.
A recent study by TRW-REDI estimated that 4,510 Ventura County homeowners owe more in mortgage payments than their houses are worth.
And though both Schniepp and Nattagh expressed surprise that low interest rates--about 7.5% on fixed 30-year loans--had not boosted sales, at least one local real estate agent said the rates might be hurting the market.
Sam Hare, president of the Simi Valley-Moorpark Assn. of Realtors, said interest rates have been low enough long enough that potential buyers may be waiting to see if rates drop again.
“The buyers start thinking, ‘Why should I buy at 7.5% when, if I wait another three months, I can get 7?’ ” he said.
After a grim six months, agents still hope to see a rebound in the market for the rest of the year.
Mary Hall, president of the Conejo Valley Assn. of Realtors, said the number of foreclosures in the county has declined this year and should prove less of a drag on home prices than in the past.
Hoag said the level of activity--of people visiting open houses or responding to rental ads--has increased, even if the shoppers remain cautious about committing to a sale.
“We’re getting a lot of lookers and a lot of inquiries,” she said.
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Ventura County House Sales
June, 1994 June, 1995 Number Average Number Average City/ZIP code of sales price of sales price CAMARILLO 93010 85 $240,200 47 $239,266 93012 45 $305,186 31 $318,600 93066 3 $328,000 8 $339,063 FILLMORE 93015 17 $174,500 11 $158,182 MOORPARK 93021 72 $221,604 86 $254,297 OAK PARK 91301 74 $282,749 40 $293,038 91304 1 $330,000 1 $117,000 OAK VIEW 93022 8 $148,000 7 $179,429 OJAI 93023 37 $222,903 24 $246,500 OXNARD 93030 80 $204,999 59 $197,919 93033 40 $147,056 27 $144,560 93035 68 $241,258 29 $224,714 PIRU 93040 2 $112,500 0 $0 PORT HUENEME 93041 29 $170,815 11 $132,091 SANTA PAULA 93060 34 $158,000 18 $162,088 SIMI VALLEY 91307 6 $398,250 4 $431,250 93063 74 $185,500 47 $179,444 93065 101 $219,830 83 $197,488 THOUSAND OAKS 91320 64 $254,804 45 $218,453 91360 80 $214,283 77 $242,339 91361 30 $378,667 22 $373,341 91362 76 $331,641 62 $305,156 VENTURA 93001 33 $256,217 23 $187,848 93003 51 $210,133 54 $204,917 93004 28 $213,759 70 $222,500 COUNTY LINE / CANYON AREA 90265 1 $770,000 2 $234,000 COUNTYWIDE 1,140 $235,995 890 $232,596
Source: TRW-REDI Property Data
