The UC Flap Leaves Jackson the Net Loser : His ambulance-chaser image won’t win new fans, and after he helps sink Clinton, he may be washed up.

Jesse Jackson’s appearance on the scene turned a University of California initiative to abolish preference programs into an early round of the national presidential primary race. When Gov. Pete Wilson persuaded the university’s Board of Regents to abandon its longstanding policy of using race and sex to help determine admissions and hiring, Jackson the ambulance chaser was there to lead protests and grab some media exposure. Though Jackson, a potential Democratic challenger, and Wilson, a Republican presidential candidate, are the ostensible antagonists in this confrontation, it is really a jousting match between each of them and his respective party peers in the race.

By leading the charge against the changes in the UC system, Jackson has positioned himself as the leading voice for old-line social liberalism among potential Democratic challengers. Wilson has led the anti-affirmative action drive to earn himself a rare conservative merit badge in the Republican Party. This showdown sets both up for some short-term benefits within their own parties, but also points out a few of their glaring political liabilities.

Jackson is sincere but wrongheaded and out of step with the times. This will only further marginalize his candidacy, should he run. On the other hand, Jackson is doing a good job of exploiting Wilson’s lack of principle. While no one could ever accuse Wilson of being out of step with the political pace of the nation, his Republican imitation of Bill Clinton has shown him to be on both sides of this issue. Wilson is doing the right thing in working to eliminate affirmative action, but his new passion stems from transparently political reasons.

Jackson’s leadership on the affirmative action issue will help solidify his grip on the minority-activist coalition that anchors the Democratic Party, and he will gain some leverage over Clinton, whose relationship with the party’s base on the left is precarious. However, Jackson’s activity in California demonstrates that he is inextricably tied to that coalition. This will narrow, rather than broaden, his constituency, which is a holdover from the Democratic Party of two and three decades ago.

With his usual delicacy, Jackson called Wilson the “Susan Smith of American politics,” rhetoric unlikely to result in conciliation or even understanding. He also demonstrated his unappealing fixation on grievance. Again, as always, denouncing something or other, he has not even acknowledged the problems with the affirmative action programs now in place, much less offered original solutions. He seems to be under the impression that affirmative action has been a roaring success, never noticing that the black unemployment rate has risen along with racial tensions since its implementation.

I am not suggesting that affirmative action programs are directly responsible for this, but they have not helped, and they have caused some problems. By failing to recognize any of that, Jackson is showing himself beholden to a rigid liberal line that has lost respectability in the face of reality. He may well have a strong bargaining chip in 1996 by clinging to the solutions of the past, but thereafter he will become a relic of the political past himself.

Wilson, on the other hand, will derive little benefit from his newfound opposition to affirmative action. For one thing, it could again point out his heightened sensitivity to the direction of the political winds, which is a talent that is most useful when it is least noticeable. Unfortunately for Wilson, during his tenure as the state’s chief executive he has signed 21 pieces of legislation that contain some form of preference programs. How could he be so recently against something that he has so consistently contributed to for so long?

Another reason his stance on affirmative action is unlikely to propel Wilson far politically is that his position is shared by many of the candidates in the Republican field, including front-runner Sen. Bob Dole. Neither that nor his tough immigration stance (also newfound) will either set him apart from the field or buy him much cachet with conservatives.

The California clash of the hopefuls will do little to advance Wilson’s bid for the GOP nomination. It will help Jackson more in the short run, because a run by him could seriously hurt Clinton’s chances. He should be able to exercise some leverage in the Democratic race for 1996. In the long run, though, it could signal the beginning of the end for Jesse Jackson.