Trouble in the House of Saddam : Defection of daughters may signal that tyrant is losing grip on power

Two ranking army officers, both members of President Saddam Hussein’s inner circle and one of them the former head of Iraq’s huge military industrialization program, have been granted political asylum in Jordan. That the men are married to and were accompanied by two of Hussein’s daughters deepens the drama of their defection. Clearly this is the greatest political embarrassment suffered by the dictator since his crushing military defeat at the hands of a U.S.-led coalition in 1991. Hussein has long limited his trust to those related to him by blood or marriage. Now he has good reason to wonder whether even those ties assure loyalty.

Some analysts see in these defections, which also involved a dozen or more other army officers, further evidence of Hussein’s steadily slipping hold on power. At a minimum they seem to show that at least some of those closest to him feel the time has come to start heading for an exit. Like all tyrants, Hussein has tried to protect himself by moving preemptively and ruthlessly against all who might threaten his power. The defectors may have feared that they were seen as such a threat. Or they may have simply decided that it was not a good idea to be close to the throne should a coup or revolution come.

Popular discontent has been spreading steadily in Iraq as the hardships produced by international economic sanctions bite ever deeper. At the same time, the political and military elite, from whose ranks any real threat to Hussein would have to come, continue to be well provided for. But even the privileged may now be coming to realize that their own best interests depend on ousting Hussein.

Washington is keeping a close watch, not least because of its interest in what the defectors can reveal about their country’s internal affairs. Much of what is known about Baghdad’s clandestine nuclear and chemical warfare programs, for example, came from information provided by earlier defectors. Now there may be a chance to learn considerably more from some of those who have been closest to the top. Whatever their motives, the defectors now in Jordan could be an intelligence gold mine.