THE TIMES POLL : Powell’s Centrist Views Find Favor Among Republicans

Despite warnings that retired Gen. Colin L. Powell’s centrist views on contentious social issues could cost him any hope of winning the Republican presidential nomination, a new Times Poll indicates that his stands on such issues as gun control and affirmative action actually increase his support among Republican voters.

For Powell, who has embarked this week on a nationwide tour to promote his autobiography and to ponder a presidential race, the support his issue positions receive, a finding which flies in the face of conventional wisdom, could provide considerable cheer.

There is a catch, however. Those Republicans who actually vote in GOP primaries tend to be considerably more conservative than the Republicans as a whole and organized conservative groups, such as the National Rifle Assn. and the Christian Coalition have tremendous influence in primary elections. And while Powell does reasonably well among conservatives, he does not do as well as the current GOP front-runner, Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas. He would lose a hypothetical primary to Dole, 29%-24%, among that group. Powell’s real strength is among self-described moderates, who prefer him to Dole by 41% to 32%. Overall, Powell and Dole are virtually tied in a hypothetical matchup--Dole 32% to Powell 30%.

Thus, if Powell were to seek the GOP presidential nomination, his challenge would be to expand the base of primary voters to include those who share his more moderate views. That would be easier in some states, such as New Hampshire, that allow independents to vote in party primaries, but more difficult in states, including California, that do not do so.

Powell’s pro-abortion rights stance hurts him among poll respondents who describe themselves as Republicans, but not as much as might be expected. While 33% of the group said that Powell’s tolerance of abortion would make them less likely to support his candidacy, 41% said that it would make no difference and 24% said that they would be more likely to support him because of his qualified endorsement of a woman’s right to end a pregnancy.

On gun control, 44% of self-described Republicans said Powell’s support for some controls would make them more likely to vote for him, only 23% said less likely, while 27% said his position would make no difference. Powell’s support for affirmative action without quotas made 34% of self-described Republicans say they would be more likely to vote for him, while 17% said less likely and 42% said it would make no difference.

“It is striking that a guy with views this moderate seems to be so popular with Republicans,” said John Brennan, director of The Times Poll. “It might be that people are so impressed by Powell’s character that ideology is not playing a big role in his support. Or it may be that his support will wane as his views become more widely known.”

The telephone poll of 1,152 adults nationwide, supervised by Brennan, was conducted Saturday through Monday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

One reason for support of Powell can be seen in answers to the question of whether the nation is heading “in the right direction” or is “on the wrong track.” By 68% to 25%, those polled answered “wrong track”--a level of pessimism only slightly less deep than during the 1992 presidential campaign. That finding held even though respondents gave a largely upbeat assessment of the overall American economy. In the current poll, 50% do not think the country is in a recession, up from 39% in June and the most optimistic the public has been on the economy in Times Polls since 1991.

A 60% share of those who think the economy is relatively healthy still say the country is on the wrong track, an indication that people are distressed by factors other than the economy.

Those “wrong track” numbers generally are bad news for incumbents, but Clinton’s approval rating has crept up to 51%, from 49% in June, while his disapproval number has dropped two percentage points, to 43%. A narrow plurality, 48% to 46%, approves of Clinton’s handling of the economy, a sentiment that has seen little change this year.

In one area--his handling of the crisis in the former Yugoslav republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina--Clinton has risen substantially, apparently because of a more muscular policy. Today, 45% approve of his handling of Bosnia, while 38% disapprove. In June, 43% disapproved of Clinton’s Bosnia policy, while 35% approved.

Clinton’s overall foreign policy rating has likewise improved, to 50% to 40% positive, compared to 42% to 49% just three months ago. In September, 1994, 55% disapproved of Clinton’s handling of foreign affairs.

In some ways, Powell’s support may mirror weaknesses the public has long perceived in Clinton. Powell’s character and leadership qualities are as important to the public as his specific stands on issues, the poll reveals. Respondents were evenly split on whether their votes would be swayed by Powell’s character or by his policies, with 42% saying issues would determine their vote while 41% said that character was more important. Only 29% of those who said they preferred Powell to President Clinton said they knew where he stood on major issues.

Half of respondents said they believed Powell should run for President, even though nearly three-quarters said they knew very little or nothing about his positions on major national issues. Only 16% thought he should run as a Republican, 21% would like to see him mount an independent bid and 12% want him to challenge Clinton for the Democratic nomination. About 26% said he shouldn’t run, and 24% said they were not sure whether he should run, or as what.

Were Powell to run as the Republican nominee, the poll indicates he could be in a strong position to defeat Clinton. If the election were held today, Powell, running as a Republican, would trounce Clinton, 50% to 40%, including a better than 2-1 margin among self-declared independent voters, who may hold the key to the outcome of the 1996 election.

At the same time, Clinton has markedly strengthened his position against Dole, moving from an eight-point deficit in March into a 51% to 45% advantage now.

In other potential general election matchups, Clinton holds decisive margins over other GOP hopefuls, including Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas (55% to 35%), California Gov. Pete Wilson (58% to 31%) and House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, who is not a declared candidate, (61% to 32%).

Unlike the other potential Republican nominees, Powell manages to cut into Clinton’s core constituencies, taking 26% of Democrats (Dole gets just 13%) and 34% of liberals (Dole gets 20%). Powell wins political moderates and sweeps independents, 62% to 28%. Powell also robs Clinton of another important Democratic constituency--African Americans. Against Dole, Clinton wins 88% of black voters, but against Powell, Clinton’s share of the black vote drops to 55%. Some 34% of blacks would vote for Powell.

If Powell were to seek the Republican nomination, he would enter as a formidable force. Without Powell in the race, Dole slaughters his nearest rival, Gramm, 50% to 11%. No other candidate pulls double-digit numbers.

But if Powell throws his helmet in the ring, the picture changes dramatically. In a matchup including Powell, Dole dropped to 32% while Powell drew 30%. Everyone else fell off the map, with only Gramm, at 7%, garnering more than 5%.

If Powell were to forgo the GOP and run as an independent, and if Dole were the Republican nominee, the poll indicates a close race. If such an election were held today, Clinton would win narrowly, 37% to 32%, over Powell. Dole would place third, at 24%.

The public fascination with a presidential candidacy outside the traditional two-party system has grown since January. In the latest survey, 38% of voters said they were “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to consider voting for a third party or independent candidate; in January, only 29% indicated willingness to vote for a third-party candidate. Only 43% said they were likely to vote for either the Democratic or Republican presidential nominee, down from the January figure of 47%.

At the same time, however, the poll indicates that the public harbors reservations about independent candidacies. Two-thirds of the respondents said that a President who was elected as an independent would have a hard time governing because he would lack assured support in Congress from members of either of the two established parties.

Only 25% said that an independent President could accomplish a great deal because he would not be beholden to the parties and their interest groups.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Early Returns on Powell

A Times national poll finds Colin L. Powell neck-and-neck with Sen. bob Dole in a contest among Republican voters. In a hypothetical general election, Powell would best President Clinton by 10 percentage points.

* Republican primary preferences: (among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican)

Bob Dole: 32%

Colin L. Powell: 30%

Phil Gramm: 7%

Patrick J. Buchanan: 5%

Newt Gingrich: 5%

Pete Wilson: 3%

Lamar Alexander: 2%

Richard G. Lugar: 1%

Arlen Specter: 1%

Robert K. Dornan: -

Alan Keyes: -

Don’t know: 14%

- indicates they received less than 5%

****

Q. How much do you know about where Colin Powell stands on important national issues? (among all registered voters)

Good amount: 27%

Not much: 72%

Don’t know: 1%

****

General election matchup (among all registered voters)

Colin L. Powell: 50%

Bill Clinton: 40%

Don’t know: 10%

****

Q. If Powell were to run for President, which of the following would be more important to you in deciding whether to vote for him: his specific positions on the issues or his overall character and leadership ability? (among all registered voters)

Positions on issues: 42%

His overall character: 41%

Both equally/Neither/Don’t know: 17%

****

Q. Do you think the fact that Powell is a former general who spent his entire career in the military would contribute to his being a good President or do you think if would detract from his being a good President? (among all registered voters)

Contribute: 68%

Detract: 20%

Don’t know: 12%

****

How the poll was conducted: The Times Poll contacted 1,152 adults nationwide, including 937 registered voters, by telephone Sept. 16-18. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain sub-groups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order of questions.