Chance to Vote Fails to Galvanize Guatemalans : Central America: Despite peace talks and truce vow, fewer than expected have registered for coming elections.

For decades, Guatemalans were afraid to vote: Guerrillas threatened to blow up polling booths, and soldiers often intimidated prospective voters. It was simpler--and safer--to just stay home on election day, especially for Indians in rural highland villages like this one.

That was supposed to change for the elections coming up Nov. 12. With the government and rebels in peace talks after more than 30 years of conflict, and with a cease-fire declared for the days leading up to the elections, Guatemalans had been expected “to go happily to the polls to choose our leaders,” to quote the logo of one get-out-the-vote campaign.

But many Guatemalans will not be casting ballots in November.

Although final results of the voter registration that closed in August still have not been released, the preliminary tally shows that only about 3.6 million people are signed up this year. That is two-thirds of the estimated adult population and less than a 5% increase over 1994 registration.

Far more people had been expected to register for the first elections in three decades that are not opposed by guerrillas and for the opportunity to help choose the administration that will implement pending peace accords.

Besides the disappointing results of the registration drive, concern is growing that even those who are on the rolls will not turn out at the polls. In last year’s congressional elections, barely one of every five registered voters cast a ballot.

The lower-than-expected registration rate and the history of high abstention have become major issues as the elections approach, largely overshadowing the lackluster campaigns of the more than two dozen presidential candidates.

“We have to reduce abstention so that the government that is elected can govern,” said Claudia Samoyoa, who heads a get-out-the-vote project at the Rigoberta Menchu Foundation, a nonpartisan group created by the 1992 winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.

“Past governments have lacked the legitimacy needed to carry out reforms,” Samoyoa said. “If this government is not strong when it takes office, the reforms called for in the [pending] peace agreement will not become law. If the government cannot implement those reforms, the future is going to be very ugly indeed.”

The reforms include land redistribution and antitrust laws--changes that many observers believe are crucial not only to peace but also to transforming the most populous country in Central America into a world-class economy.

To ensure that Guatemalans are aware of the import of these elections, Menchu--a 36-year-old Quiche Indian who is the most widely recognized leader in this country of 10 million people--is campaigning as intensively as any candidate. She travels over rutted dirt roads to visit up to five villages a day to persuade people--particularly Indian women like her--to vote.

But for many, such as Margarita Lopez, the message will come too late. A 32-year-old mother of three, Lopez lives here in Chikalaja, about 20 minutes from Quetzaltenango, Guatemala’s second-largest city. However, she was born 80 miles away in a neighboring state in a village called Tacana.

To register to vote, Lopez needs to present her cedula, a sort of internal passport, which she has lost.

To replace her documents, she must return to her hometown, wait a week or more until the magistrate makes one of his sporadic visits and pay him a fee for the new papers. Then she must go to the county seat at Quetzaltenango and pay the magistrate there a fee for a stamp showing that she is now a resident of Chikalaja. Only then can she register to vote.

Between fees and bus fare, she estimates that registering to vote would cost her 300 quetzales--about $50, or two weeks’ work at the minimum wage.

“Besides, who will take care of my children while I am doing this?” Lopez asked. “Lots of women do not vote because they do not have their cedulas. “

That problem is increasingly a concern for grass-roots groups. “We must find a way to convince women that their cedula is more than just a paper they need for a marriage license,” Quetzaltenango community activist Rene Juarez said in a recent seminar on elections, to the giggles of several young women in the audience.

Mario Minera, a political analyst, observed that “the rural population has stayed on the sidelines again.” As a result, he predicted, November’s elections will be decided by the people who have always voted--the captive audience of the traditional political parties.

“Each of the parties will receive the same percentage of votes it has always gotten,” he said. “There really is no option for the democratic left.”

The biggest question is whether Alvaro Arzu--the popular former mayor of the capital and the old-money candidate of progressive business interests--will win in the first round.

The campaign has served to discredit the traditional right, represented by the Guatemalan Republican Front, known as the FGR: Two of the party’s presidential candidates have been disqualified, and serious questions have arisen about alleged falsification of signatures and fingerprints on party membership lists.

“There is little in this election that is going to move the vote of abstention,” said Minera.

But as the war winds down and peace talks continue, elections increasingly appear to be crucial, according to observers. “The only possibility for disputing power is the electoral process,” said Minera. “The guerrillas have not yet laid down their arms, but it is obvious that they are not going to overthrow the government.”

Now, the challenge for civic groups is to persuade those who have registered to actually go to the polls in November.

“Up to now, the opposition has been represented by the 80% of the people who did not vote,” said Samoyoa. “Now, we need a government that can govern.”