Following Holiday Tradition : Once Again, Studios Have Saved Their Biggest Titles for Year-End

This year, as with every other in recent memory, too many pictures are hoping to find a home for the holidays. In the remaining eight weeks of 1995, more than 50 releases will compete for the moviegoer’s dollar.

“The whole business is becoming table-stakes poker,” says Barry London, vice chairman of Paramount’s motion picture group. “And since movies are more expensive, the risk is getting worse.”

The lackluster summer and the recent plunge of high-profile offerings including “The Scarlet Letter,” “Strange Days,” “Jade” and “Assassins” have upped the ante.

“People hope and expect this season to be very different from the fall--a period in which, with the exception of ‘Seven’ and ‘Get Shorty,’ no movies broke out,” says Sidney Ganis, president of worldwide marketing for Columbia and TriStar.

Still, analysts point out that box office is slightly ahead of last year’s record-breaking pace--a feat all the more remarkable given the absence of a “Forrest Gump” or “Lion King.” Chances are good that the lead can be retained. Because Christmas falls on a Monday, the Saturday night crowd won’t be diverted by Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve festivities as they were in 1994. And the range of products is broader than last year, when “Interview With the Vampire,” “The Santa Clause” and “Dumb and Dumber” were the only movies to surpass $100 million.

“If $1 billion worth of tickets are sold between now and Jan. 1, the record will be broken,” says Phil Garfinkle, senior vice president of Entertainment Data Inc., an operation that monitors box office. “That’s a distinct possibility since the films appear more commercial. In 1994, there were seven movies topping the $40-million mark. In 1995, there could be 10 or more.”

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Exhibitors weighed in at ShowEast last month, giving thumbs up to “The American President,” “Heat,” “Sabrina,” “Father of the Bride Part II” and “Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls” and delivering qualified praise for “Jumanji,” “Toy Story” and “Casino.” Theater-owners also took aim at the studios for lumping potential blockbusters into the summer and year-end time slots at the expense of the lighter moviegoing periods.

The action field is especially crowded--with Pierce Brosnan’s debut as James Bond in “GoldenEye,” John Badham’s “Nick of Time,” Walter Hill’s “Wild Bill” and Terry Gilliam’s futuristic “The Twelve Monkeys,” which is surfacing in limited release to qualify for academy consideration. And, with “Othello,” “Richard III,” “Sense and Sensibility” and “Carrington” vying for the classics crowd, competition should be intense, especially for smaller niche films such as Henry Jaglom’s “Last Summer in the Hamptons,” Miramax’s “Georgia” with Jennifer Jason Leigh and Mare Winningham, and Fine Line’s adaptation of Truman Capote’s “The Grass Harp.”

In this post-O.J. climate, three films--”Cry the Beloved Country,” “The Journey of August King” and “White Man’s Burden,” with Harry Belafonte and John Travolta--will be lobbying for racial harmony, while in “Mr. Holland’s Opus,” would-be composer Richard Dreyfuss turns high school music teacher, changing the students’ lives as well as his own.

On a less inspirational note, Jack Nicholson plays a jeweler obsessed with vengeance in Sean Penn’s “The Crossing Guard”; Mia Farrow finds out that her husband has hired a hit man to kill her in “Reckless”; a good woman (Susan Sarandon) fights for the soul of a bad man in Tim Robbins’ “Dead Man Walking” and a professor at a Christian college is forced to choose between the man she loves and the female circus performer she desires in the Canadian-made, NC-17-rated “When Night Is Falling.”

Barring last-minute changes, three independent releases and seven studio movies--including Mel Brooks’ “Dracula: Dead and Loving It,” Universal’s animated “Balto” and Jean-Claude Van Damme’s thriller “Sudden Death” and “Cutthroat Island,” Renny Harlin’s big-budget pirate epic starring Geena Davis--are scheduled to open Dec. 22. And smaller family films such as Disney’s adolescent buddy picture “Tom and Huck” could find it rough going, insiders suggest, if “Toy Story” and “Jumanji” take off.

Not to worry, says Chan Wood, executive vice president and director of marketing for Pacific Theaters. Pictures released at Thanksgiving will most likely be off the screens by the time Christmas rolls around, he says. And movies opening late in the year can do well in January and February when generally strong box office is bolstered by the Martin Luther King and Presidents’ Day weekends.

“Since it’s impossible to know what the public will buy, we booked every major studio release,” Wood says. “Having multiplex theaters reduces the risk since we’re not locked into a particular audience. If you guess wrong in a twin- or triplex theater, you’re out of business.”

Geoff Ammer, head of worldwide marketing at Cinergi Pictures, acknowledges that clutter can hurt--a problem highlighted by a summer in which unremarkable products such as “Mighty Morphin Power Rangers,” “First Knight,” “Judge Dredd” and “Free Willy 2” were caught in the crush.

“Summer and Christmas are the Super Bowl of the moviegoing year,” he says. “Everyone wants to compete. But every picture has a ‘level,’ and some may work better in the Februarys or Aprils of this world. If you don’t have the goods, better not to be in the game.”

In truth, observes Exhibitor Relations president John Krier, the holiday season is less significant than the summer stretch when it comes to the studios’ bottom line.

“Intensive moviegoing is limited to the brief periods during Thanksgiving and between Christmas and New Year’s when the kids are out of school,” he says. “It’s prestige, as much as box office, that’s at stake.”

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Which pics will click this holiday season?

These high-profile studio releases for this month and next have generated the most buzz or are given the best shot at box-office success by industry observers.

“GoldenEye”

Nov. 17

Bond is back, but can the debonair Pierce Brosnan (with Izabella Scorupco) make the public forget Sean Connery?

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“Casino”

Nov. 22

This Martin Scorsese gangster film features top-notch performances by Robert De Niro and Sharon Stone, but runs nearly three hours and is ultra-violent.

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“Toy Story”

Nov. 22

Disney has flexed its considerable marketing muscle in promoting this computer-animated fantasy featuring the voices of Tim Allen and Tom Hanks.

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“Jumanji”

Dec. 15

TriStar’s betting on the appeal of top-of-the-line special effects and Robin Williams (with Bonnie Hunt) as a man who is trapped in a magical board game.

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“Sabrina”

Dec. 15

Sydney Pollack’s remake of the 1954 favorite may be the breakout role for Julia Ormond, who is co-starring with the ever-bankable Harrison Ford.

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“Waiting to Exhale”

Dec. 22

Whitney Houston’s first feature-film outing since the 1992 blockbuster “The Bodyguard” should get a push from a strong, driving soundtrack.

Other November releases

“Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls”

Friday

With built-in wanna-see and the red-hot Jim Carrey, this sequel to the 1994 sleeper hit starts big and could get huge.

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“The American President”

Nov. 17

Director Rob Reiner serves up a White House-based romantic comedy with the season’s best word of mouth.

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“Money Train”

Nov. 22

Wesley Snipes and Woody Harrelson, unbeatable in “White Men Can’t Jump,” are reunited in this Joe Ruben action film.

Other December releases

“Father of the Bride Part II”

Dec. 8

Early word has it that this sequel is better than its 1991 predecessor, which grossed $89 million domestically.

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“Heat”

Dec. 8

Al Pacino and Robert De Niro add heavy-duty star power to Michael Mann’s gritty tale of an L.A. cop fixated on a deadly thief.

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“Nixon”

Dec. 20

Oliver Stone’s portrait of the 37th President, starring Anthony Hopkins, could break out in early 1996 and has stirred Oscar talk.