THE CUTTING EDGE: COMPUTING / TECHNOLOGY / INNOVATION : A Change of Direction? : High-Tech Industry Pundits Ponder Future’s Computer
The computer industry, gathered here this week for the the giant Comdex trade show, has had little time for introspection in its short history. But the hot topic of the show this year is a profound one, and it has many of the 200,000 attendees curious but on edge: Just what will the PC of the next millennium look like?
This momentous question has come to the fore largely because of the the incredible growth of the Internet, that global confederation of information-laden computers. The Internet, and the possibilities it holds, is shaking every assumption in the PC business--though just how dramatically the PC will eventually change remains a matter of heated debate.
On one side of the argument are those who say that the PC of the future will look an awful lot like the PC of the present but will employ more pictures, sound and video so that it will become easier for the average person to use. The two-thirds of the American households that have yet to buy a PC, in this scenario, will eventually come around.
On the other side are those who believe the ever-more-powerful PC is now due for a dumbing down, that it will become little more than an access device for vast amounts of information on the Internet. This future “network computer,” or “information appliance,” as it is being called, will cost only $500 or so, because the most expensive components will be on computers in cyberspace and not on the one on the desk at home.
As always in these sorts of discussions, where you stand depends mostly on where you sit--and the mainstream PC companies are thus on side A.
“The computer does three things: It displays information, it processes it and it stores it,” said Michael Dell, chief executive of Dell Computer. “The debate is about where that happens--whether it’s on your desktop or somewhere out there. There’s a fundamental flaw in the logic that everything--your databases and even your word processor--will be stored on the Internet: When you have data somewhere else, someone’s going to charge you for it.”
Dell points out that the communications lines that connect people to the Internet are not large enough to pipe in the software code needed for a computer user to work easily on something stored on a remote computer rather than on the desktop PC.
Mal Ransom, marketing vice president for Packard Bell, the leading U.S. supplier of PCs, concurs: “People are clamoring for more technology, not less. Today, people have their finances, their lives on their PC. Are they really going to want that stored outside of their homes?”
The concept of the network computer is a favorite of Lawrence Ellison, co-founder and chief executive of Oracle Corp., and of Scott McNealy, the equally outspoken co-founder and chief executive of Sun Microsystems Inc. Oracle makes database software, and Sun manufactures servers, the computers where those databases reside. And they now have a supporter in IBM Chairman Louis V. Gerstner Jr.
In his Comdex speech Monday, Gerstner strongly endorsed the idea of a network computer: “Frankly, I think few end users, particularly consumers, care where the processing, storage and data movement and all that stuff takes place--whether it happens inside their tin box or somewhere on the network--just as long as what happens in front of the screen is compelling, simple to use and is the least expensive solution available”.
If it all sounds like “Back to the Future,” it is. These stripped-down PCs bear a strong resemblance to the dumb terminals used by many office workers to access information that sits on the company’s mainframe, a machine probably made by IBM. In fact, Gerstner said IBM will make a network computer for selected corporate customers next year. The new machine will have Intel Corp.’s Pentium processor so that unlike the terminals of old, it will be capable of manipulating the data that has been downloaded from the corporate database.
Many are clearly hoping that the Internet and the new computing concepts it brings will break the stranglehold of Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. on the PC industry.
“People are excited because the Internet breaks the mold of business as usual--which, frankly, had gotten rather dreary,” said Apple Computer Inc. Senior Vice President David Nagel.
“People get a kick out of the fact that the Internet is an opportunity for everyone and we might not be there,” conceded Microsoft Senior Vice President Steve Ballmer. “I like the fact that we aren’t the incumbent in this area. It keeps us on our toes.”
For Internet software, Microsoft is playing catch-up to upstart Netscape Communications, which makes “browsing” software that searches for specific information on the Internet. But in his Comdex speech, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates laid to rest any notions that his company has become complacent. Microsoft is adding Internet access abilities to its applications so that PC users working in a Microsoft word processor or spreadsheet can download data to the document open on the screen.
“The Internet is kind of like a gold rush,” Gates told the crowd. “The amount of excitement, the number of new companies--it’s really unbelievable. Now, fortunately, this is a gold rush where there really is gold.”
Hardware manufacturers such as Dell, Packard Bell and Apple have not become complacent either. They talk about storage devices that will be able to play music, movies and books on CD-ROMs. And PCs will eventually boast of oversized high-resolution screens light enough to hang on a wall for family viewing.
But if the past is any guide, the companies that do well with any radically new kind of computer product will not be the same ones that did well with the old. So even though the computer sales to corporate America have peaked and the most attractive segment of the home market is quickly becoming saturated--Odyssey Research of San Francisco estimates that 60% of U.S. households making more than $50,000 a year have purchased computers for the home--the network PC could be a mixed blessing. Tune in next year, when the first of these devices might even be on hand.
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The Information Appliance
Many in the computer business believe simple, cheap computers optimized for accessing the Internet will soon become popular. Software programs would be retrieved from the network, used and then discarded, rather than stored on disk drives. These devices might cost as little as $500.
* A powerful but inexpensive microprocessor
* A modem and communications software
* A control device resembling a television remote
* Plenty of RAM
* A simple, compact design
Unlike traditional PCs, these new machines would not contain:
* Hard and floppy disk drives
* A large power supply and cooling system
* Expansion slots
Optional features might include:
* A CD-ROM drive
* A keyboard
* A monitor (otherwise it could connect to a television set)
* High-end sound circuitry
