NEWS ANALYSIS : Clinton Coming Out on Top in Budget Tussle

Two days into the great budget standoff of 1995, President Clinton has emerged a clear political winner over Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) and House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.)--in the short run, at least.

“Look at how worried they look!” a Clinton aide crowed Wednesday morning as the furrowed visages of Gingrich and Dole appeared on the television set in his office.

A CNN/USA Today poll found that the public blames the Republicans for the deadlock more than Clinton by a wide margin of 49% to 26%, with 19% blaming both sides.

Republicans acknowledged that the President has bested them in the tactical battle for public opinion this week. But they said they are confident they can turn the tide--if they can change the focus of the debate from the government shutdown to their plan to balance the federal budget.

“We can’t win a fight over 24-hour [spending] resolutions,” lamented GOP strategist Eddie Mahe. “Clinton just goes into the White House press room and beats us every time. . . . But once we pass a balanced budget, the burden will be on him.”

White House aides, on the other hand, were gleeful. “We’re trying not to gloat,” said one senior Clinton adviser, “but he has hit everything just right this week.”

In the view of the President’s political handlers, the budget battle is not just about whether Clinton will accept Republican spending cuts: It’s a chance to show their sometimes-irresolute President drawing a line in the sand and fighting for something he believes in.

Clinton aides said that he accomplished that by relentlessly warning that the GOP spending plan would damage Medicare and other popular programs. The CNN/USA Today poll gives some support to that theory: Asked whom they trusted to cut the budget while maintaining necessary programs, 49% named the Democrats and 36% the Republicans--a reversal from the beginning of the year.

Gingrich agreed that Clinton’s Medicare campaign has been effective--unfairly so, he said.

“The President, frankly, was deliberately misinforming the American people. . . . So he got an early advantage,” the Speaker said in a television interview. “But it’s a year to the election. And in a free society, I think the truth beats the big lie.”

Clinton Administration officials have charged that the Republicans would destroy Medicare, push the Treasury into defaulting on government debts and endanger Social Security benefits.

Republicans have charged that Clinton is seeking an “unlimited credit card” to increase government spending without regard for the consequences. None of those charges is strictly accurate.

Moreover, the polarization appears likely to continue. White House aides, pleased with the President’s newly sharp image, said that they are planning a series of events to allow Clinton to dramatize his defense of popular federal programs, including possible meetings with Roman Catholic bishops and college presidents.

Republican leaders, meanwhile, hope to change the question--by demanding that Clinton accept or veto their proposal to balance the budget in seven years. Clinton already has said that he would veto the bill because of the size of its cuts in the growth of Medicare and education spending.

“The important question isn’t who gets blamed for shutting down the government for a few days,” said Glen Bolger, a GOP pollster whose firm has been advising Dole. “The important question is: What is the right thing to do in terms of balancing the budget?”

“Clearly we’re deep in a hole because we’re playing with volatile issues like Medicare,” agreed Mahe. “But six months from now we will be able to point out that we promised and we delivered.”

Amid the partisan rhetoric, only a few lonely souls were arguing for moderation.

“In negotiations, people naturally start out expressing a strong position and expect to compromise later,” said Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.). “The danger is that, as you state your position as strongly as you can, it makes it harder to compromise on it.”

“The Administration doesn’t want Republicans to feel that the President can be rolled,” he said. “But I worry a little bit that both sides might have gone too far.”