THE WORLD : Haiti Elected a New President, But Can He Replace Aristide?

In 1991, before the bloody coup d’etat, the painful embargo and the U.S. military occupation, President Jean-Bertrand Aristide stood outside the regal Palais Nationale waiting--like the showman he is--for the right moment to speak to a delirious throng of supporters. Behind Aristide, standing like a wallflower among the presidential security detail, was the second-most powerful politician in the country, Prime Minister Rene Preval. As usual, no one seemed to care that Preval was present.

All eyes were on “Titid,” Aristide’s adoring Creole nickname, which means “Little Aristide.”

About 2,000 women and children had swarmed onto the palace lawn to celebrate International Women’s Day. During Aristide’s lyrical 20-minute speech, at least 10 people fainted from heat exposure--or perhaps from spiritual possession, the climax of Haitian vodou when worshipers are overtaken by powerful convulsions. The spellbinding Aristide ended his address with metaphors, proverbs and call-and-response litanies most Haitians know by heart.

“Are some people still under the table?” Aristide asked.

“Yes,” the crowd cheered.

“Are some people sitting at the table?”

“Yes!”

“Would you like all of us to sit at the table like brothers and sisters? Would you like to sit at the table? As days go by, we will succeed in sitting around the table together.”

After going back inside the palace, Aristide appeared at a third-story window and repeatedly pumped his fist in the air, creating an electrifying frenzy through the crowd. Then Aristide stepped away from the window; a few seconds later, Preval appeared. The poor man. Few people recognized him and no one cheered. They wanted to see Titid again.

Last Sunday, the Haitian no one cheered nearly five years ago is widely believed to have won the Caribbean country’s second democratic presidential election in almost 200 years of independence. If Preval is declared the winner, he will succeed--but certainly not replace--Aristide on Feb. 7. Fewer than three weeks later, the U.N. peacekeeping force of 5,722 troops, including some 2,200 U.S. soldiers, is scheduled to withdraw from the desperately poor nation.

Some call Preval, 52, Aristide’s protege; others say acolyte. Aristide, a former priest and the first democratically elected Haitian president, affectionately refers to Preval as his twin. It is common knowledge in Haiti that Preval would not be preparing to become president at this pivotal moment in Haitian history if Aristide had not chosen him. In Haiti, Aristide, only 42, is not just the kingmaker--he is also king.

Aristide is not only the leader of Haiti’s poor, the nearly 90% of the country’s 7.5 million citizens who live at or below the poverty line. He is one of them. He is their magical hero, a Haitian combination of the inspirational success of Colin L. Powell and the bold independence of Ross Perot. He began to establish a reputation as a fearless, truth-telling prophet after being assigned a parish in the stinking slum, La Saline, where he had lived as a boy. In the pulpit at St. Jean Bosco Church, Aristide’s sermons included passages about dignity and national pride. Fluent in at least six languages, Aristide would speak flamboyantly in foreign tongues and illiterate parishioners would smile with pride as their Titid showed how smart a poor Haitian could be.

It was Aristide’s overt political message, however, that led Haitians to tape his sermons and bootleg the cassettes around the country. Aristide was fearless. In a climate of extreme political repression, he attacked Jean-Claude (Baby Doc) Duvalier. He mocked the notorious Ton-Ton Macoutes. Aristide continued with his revolutionary calls for militant social justice against the series of military regimes that held power from 1986-90.

While virtually every politician would wait until he was safely abroad before criticizing the dictatorships, Aristide issued his denunciations from the heart of the Haitian capital. Aristide’s courage endeared him to many Haitians--including a quiet intellectual named Preval, who regularly attended Aristide’s Sunday masses after spending 12 years of the Duvalier dictatorship in forced exile.

Despite threats from Duvalierists, Aristide decided to hold a mass on Sept. 11, 1988. Thugs stormed the church, killing at least 11 parishioners and wounding more than 70. Then the attackers, operating on orders from the U.S.-trained Haitian military, set the church on fire. Aristide was rescued by loyal parishioners--and Preval stood with Aristide during the attack. This experience bound Aristide and Preval, and it also began a series of events that transformed Aristide into a talisman for Haiti’s religious peasantry. Since the St. Jean Bosco slaughter, Aristide has survived at least two other assassination attempts and a coup d’etat. Many of his closest friends have been killed in politically inspired attacks, including the assassination last month of Congressman Jean-Hubert Feuille, a former Aristide bodyguard. To many of his supporters, Aristide’s miraculous survival means he has a divine destiny.

His return has only increased this passion. The image of the world’s only superpower flying Titid back to Haiti captured the country’s imagination. In a sermon delivered before Aristide returned on Oct. 15, 1994, the Rev. Gerard Jean-Juste, an Aristide advisor, pointed to the rafters and repeatedly shouted: “He’s above us. He’s flying. He’s coming down. He’s here.” The congregation shook with shrieks of joy. Haitians across the country painted messages they hoped Aristide would see during his flight home. Along the road to the northern port of Cap Haitian, supporters painted huge white hearts in the middle of the black paved highway, and wrote messages such as, “Welcome home, President Titid. We love you.”

Back in power, Aristide has demonstrated he hasn’t changed that much, despite living in exile for more than three years. He did, however change the name of his political party to the Creole name Tab La, the table. Haitians did not have to wait long to hear Aristide’s favorite metaphor for social equality.

There is little doubt the adulation Aristide receives in Haiti has stroked his rarely discussed ambition. Aristide enjoys being the center of attention, and his decision to appoint Preval as his successor reveals he may be falling into a trap that has felled many previous Haitian leaders: despotism.

For all Preval’s intelligence and dedication, he is not the most qualified leader from Aristide’s coalition to build on Aristide’s democratic legacy or to defend the young democracy against inevitable coup attempts from Duvalierists after the U.N. force departs. Rather, Preval was selected at least partly because he doesn’t threaten Aristide’s popularity. When Aristide visits President Preval later this year, the crowd will cheer for Titid--and that’s the way Aristide wants it.

Too many of Haiti’s leaders have craved extended power over raising the country from its economic condition. For everyone to sit at the same table in Haiti, there must be no one standing above it. That includes Aristide.