Indiana GOP Congressman May Add to Vulnerability

If Democrats are to recapture the House in November, it is first-term Republicans like John Hostettler, a political neophyte before he won Indiana’s 8th Congressional District in 1994, whom they must unseat.

Of the 73 House GOP freshmen, all of whom are presumed to be seeking reelection as of now, Hostettler is viewed as among the most vulnerable--an opinion held by not only vengeful Democrats but some fretful Republicans.

Hostettler is one of 27 Republican freshmen who share the two major indications of GOP vulnerability in this fall’s vote:

* They won in 1994 with less than 55% of the vote (Hostettler edged a six-term Democrat).

* They represent districts Bill Clinton carried on his way to winning the presidency in 1992.

Since taking office, Hostettler may have added to these inherent political difficulties. The 34-year-old former mechanical engineer has all but made a virtue of ignoring the concerns of some constituents while backing Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) on many issues.

“That’s an unusual reelection strategy,” said Gary C. Jacobson, a UC San Diego political scientist who specializes in House elections.

Added University of Oklahoma political scientist Gary W. Copeland: “This will be an interesting election in that we’ve seen so many of the freshmen play consciously by different rules.”

Hostettler probably would face a tough reelection contest under any circumstances. The district he represents has been so hotly contested over the years that some call it “the bloody 8th.”

“It’s been a flip-flop district for a long time. It has a history of turning out incumbents,” said Brian Vargus, a political scientist at Indiana University.

The district, which sprawls across the hills of southwestern Indiana, has a mixture of industrial workers, coal miners and the intelligentsia. Evansville, an Ohio River port city, is home to two small colleges as well as plants owned by Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., Whirlpool Corp., Alcoa Aluminum and General Electric Co. Indiana University--with more than 40,000 students and employees--also is within the district. And in seven of the district’s 12 counties, coal is still strip-mined.

Craig Veith, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, insists that the challenge facing Hostettler has been greatly exaggerated.

“He’s doing exactly what he needs to do to get reelected,” Veith said. “Indiana is a Republican stronghold, and it will only get stronger in the ’96 elections.”

But Democrats contend that even among conservative voters, Hostettler could be in trouble. That’s because while fervently embracing much of the GOP’s legislative agenda, he has voted against two key initiatives that propelled Republicans to victory in the first place: the proposed balanced-budget amendment and congressional term limits.

Hostettler says he agrees with the goals but opposes amending the Constitution to achieve either result.

Hostettler gained fresh notoriety earlier this month when he joined 15 GOP colleagues in defying Gingrich by voting against reopening the federal government.

The vote so infuriated Gingrich that he canceled an appearance at a Hostettler campaign fund-raiser. But Hostettler fired right back in a letter to the speaker: “I am today declining your unsolicited offer to attend a fund-raiser in southwestern Indiana to benefit my reelection. . . . I cannot allow my fund-raising to be tied in any way to specific votes.”

The flap highlights a calculation that candidates are making: To what extent should they link themselves or their opponents to Gingrich?

In more than 800 non-procedural votes last year, Hostettler backed Gingrich nearly 94% of the time--higher even than the freshman class average. “And that’s not representative of his district,” said Jim Whitney, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Hostettler is also still dogged by gaffes in his last campaign. While defending the right to bear arms, he seemingly suggested that citizens should have equal access as the government to weapons--even of the nuclear variety. Hostettler also had to backtrack after advocating abolition of the minimum wage and to extricate himself from comments some considered anti-Semitic.

“Hostettler has not tried to ingratiate himself with voters,” said Leroy N. Rieselbach, another Indiana University political scientist. “He’s a true believer in his own particular brand of right-wing issues. The test will be whether voters will buy his integrity.”

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Looking for Trends

Can freshman Republicans who stormed into the House in the 1994 elections remain in office, particularly in districts with a Democratic tilt? Will moderate Republicans who have thrived in Democratic-leaning districts overcome discontent with the GOP’s agenda? And can Republicans capitalize on their growing Southern strength to win seats that Democrats are giving up? Here is a look at three districts where these questions come into play.

Indiana’s 8th: Conservative a Target

Republican John Hostettler, a staunch conservative, upset a six-term Democratic incumbent in 1994, but now is considered among the most vulnerable of GOP freshmen. Democrats plan a full-scale campaign.

THE DISTRICT:

Largely rural with a mixture of colleges and industrial plants.

White: 96%

Black: 3%

Asian: 1%

Latino: 1%

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‘92 PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Clinton: 42%

Bush: 40%

Perot: 18%

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‘92 CONGRESSIONAL RACE

Frank McCloskey (D): 53%

Richard Mourdock (R): 45%

Others: 2%

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‘94 CONGRESSIONAL VOTE

Hostettler (R): 52%

Frank McCloskey (D): 48%