Presidential Scandal May Result in Political Dividends for Colombia

Colombians are embarrassed and are preparing to feel even more so as investigations continue into whether President Ernesto Samper knew his 1994 campaign was financed largely with drug money. But experts here are convinced that the scandal may be just what the country needs.

“This is going to be Watergate; it is going to be a terrible travail,” political analyst Eduardo Pizarro predicted. “But Watergate led to reforms.”

The investigation that sparked the accusations against the president has also uncovered evidence of drug-related corruption in Congress, even among members responsible for deciding whether Samper should be impeached.

The gangland-style murder last week of a key witness, Elizabeth Sarria, suspected of being a link between the Samper campaign and drug lords, has raised questions of who might be willing to kill to impede the investigation.

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The scandal has shoved aside other urgent issues--government peace negotiations with armed militias and guerrilla groups, economic reforms and the fight against drugs--while damaging relations with the United States. But Colombians are beginning to look beyond the crisis, debating who can lead the country and what the lasting effects of the scandal might be.

“Unless the truth is told, problems cannot be corrected,” political analyst Alejandro Reyes said. “This has made the relationship between the mafia and corrupt politicians obvious. It has brought us international shame, but the next elections will be cleaner than the last ones.”

Diplomats say this is a striking change of attitude in Colombia.

“Colombians tend to think you, as a foreigner, are being rude if you point out unpleasant truths,” one senior foreign diplomat said.

Colombians are weary of the side effects of drug violence. One is having to arrive at the airport three hours early to have luggage inspected multiple times and compared against passenger lists. Another is the treatment they get in other countries when they present a Colombian passport.

A priest from an area near Medellin recounted having the contents of his luggage examined garment by garment by customs officials in Rome.

Then there is the highest murder rate in the world: 80 homicides for every 100,000 people, almost four times as high as in second-place Brazil.

“It is not in the interest of a single country to be the center of drug distribution for so long,” Reyes said. “We’ve had enough illegal enrichment by mafias in Colombia. It’s time people got rich with honest work.”

But even though Colombians say they are fed up with the drug trade, U.S. Ambassador Myles Frechette said that “international pressure, particularly pressure from the United States, is what produced results here.”

Those results are still not entirely clear, as Samper clings to power and feuds with his vice president, Humberto de la Calle.

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Their relationship is so strained that shortly after De la Calle took office he was also made ambassador to Spain and dispatched there. Pundits here believe that if Samper does agree to resign, one of his conditions will be that De la Calle not succeed him.

Further, despite the hopes of Colombian analysts, what repercussions Samper’s removal might have are still not clear.

Diplomats warned against expecting a well-established, highly profitable drug trade to vanish because of a single event--even an event as dramatic as the fall of a president.

One senior diplomat recalled the expectations when Medellin drug cartel leader Pablo Escobar was killed in a shootout with police in 1993. As it turned out, his illegal empire was taken over by the Cali cartel.

“Just like the death of Pablo Escobar was not the end of this, the resignation of Samper will not be the end,” the diplomat warned.

Frechette predicted a long struggle for Colombia, even after the scandal subsides.

“It took Colombia 20 years to get where it is,” he said, “and it’s going to take 15 to 20 years to get out.”