Polls Fuel Dole’s Hopes for Quick, Winning Drive

For the first time in many weeks of this improbable Republican presidential nomination battle, Sen. Bob Dole on Friday began to think he might be seeing some breaks in the clouds of gloom that have gathered over his campaign.

Fresh polls in some major states showed the onetime and longtime front-runner ahead again. Of course, polls have misled Dole before--they falsely led him to believe that he would win in New Hampshire and Delaware. But this time he displayed enough confidence in his position to break away early from today’s crucial South Carolina primary contest to spend the day campaigning in New England.

“We’re getting out of states where [Steve] Forbes spent very early,” Dole said in an interview with The Times. “ . . . We have strong organization in all these states. I think the electorate is beginning to make a judgment. Maybe experience isn’t all that bad.”

Dole reflected on the ups-and-downs of his quest for the nomination and his hopes for the next two weeks. He said so much hinges on South Carolina--the lead-in to nine contests next Tuesday and the big New York sweepstakes on Thursday.

“If we have a good tomorrow, it will be good weekend news. If we have a bad tomorrow, it will be Tuesday blues,” he said.

At least by the traditional rules of politics, the winner in South Carolina enjoys a “bounce”--perhaps all the more important in 1996 because of the ever-accelerating pace of this year’s primary schedule.

“I think we’re going to have a good week,” said Dole, whose confidence was as apparent Friday just as his frustration was a few days ago.

“I was disappointed in New Hampshire. For about an hour, I was really frustrated, but then I thought, ‘Let’s move on to North and South Dakota. I knew we were in good shape there. Arizona was a long shot,” he said. Last Tuesday, Dole captured the Dakotas against token resistance but finished second to Forbes in fiercely contested Arizona.

“It’s almost like basketball,” the senator shrugged. “You win one, then you lose one. Then you maybe win two or three. You cannot lose too many if you’re going to win the whole thing.”

Although he has reshuffled his campaign team and even admitted his new determination to smile more on the stump, Dole said his basic strategy is intact after his setbacks.

‘No New Strategy’

“No new strategy. But I just sort of said to myself, ‘If I don’t know the issues and I can’t connect with people without someone putting it all down on a postcard or 28-page speech, then I shouldn’t be out here in the first place. I may not be the best articulator in the world, but I have a feel for what sells. So I’ve been relaxed about it, excited about it, seeing the big crowds.

“I think you have to take one day at a time--sort of like AA, I guess,” he said in a joking reference to the Alcoholics Anonymous slogan.

Today, Dole has hopes for a convincing victory against Patrick J. Buchanan in South Carolina, thereby demonstrating to supporters that he has the strength to win in the rest of the Southern primaries later this month. He then would hope to win most of the delegates at stake in nine states voting next Tuesday. Five of those states, all in New England, have winner-take-all systems that award all their delegates to the first-place finisher, a rule that would allow Dole to make maximum advantage of whatever edge he can hold over his rivals. Finally, in the third contest next week, he faces off against Forbes in New York on Thursday.

If Dole could pull off a streak of wins--and new polls suggest such a possibility--he would be, at least for the time being, able to reclaim his former title as the race’s front-runner. But even as Dole’s opponents seemed to acknowledge his momentary edge, they could take heart in one thing: The GOP race so far seems perversely determined to throw surprise at all signs of conventional thinking.

The showdown in New York could be the most telling. A survey of television stations in New York showed that late in the day, Forbes began making what station executives called “substantial” purchases of advertising time in the state.

Forbes has vowed an “all-out” effort in the state, but up until now, he had not actually begun purchasing air time. Forbes and his aides declined to say exactly how much they were prepared to spend. In Arizona, the candidate swamped the airwaves at a cost of about $4 million. An aide characterized that as a “major, significant” effort. By comparison, he added, spending in New York would be “significant.”

Buchanan stayed in South Carolina to pound away one more day on “Beltway Bob,” his nickname for Dole. He talked up his chances, not so much for today’s vote but next Tuesday’s primary in Georgia.

Georgia Challenge

Once giddy and high-flying, Buchanan has come down to earth in recent days and campaigned with a view toward keeping himself in contention if he should lose in South Carolina. Increasingly, the question to his campaign has been: If he cannot win in such a rock-rib Southern state, where can he?

The former commentator and presidential speech writer said that if he did not win South Carolina, the next challenge would be Georgia. Asked whether he could win in Georgia, Buchanan said he did not know but “clearly you’ve got to get a win.” He noted he was behind in New York, called Massachusetts difficult but said Maine “looks good.”

At the back of the pack, Lamar Alexander, who has been counting on Dole to falter and open up room in the race, found himself repeatedly badgered by reporters about when he might start winning or, alternatively, pull out of the race. At a press conference in South Carolina, Alexander snapped: “Instead of acting like a bunch of handicappers here, why don’t we talk about what kind of country we’re going to have?!”

Two new statewide polls released Friday in South Carolina showed Dole leading there by margins of 11 and 15 percentage points over Buchanan. Alexander and Forbes were lagging. Tracking polls by some of the candidates arrived at similar conclusions, campaign officials said.

In New York, a poll by the independent Marist Institute showed Dole with a 54%-21% lead over Buchanan, with 18% favoring Forbes. Buchanan, however, will compete for delegates in only 23 of New York’s 31 congressional districts. And of course, the poll was taken far in advance of the impending Forbes blitz on the airwaves.

Other surveys gave Dole the narrowest of margins in Georgia and Connecticut, although all of these polls are increasingly regarded with caution as decisive blocs of a volatile electorate seem to be waiting until just before election day to make a call.

Brighter Mood

The surveys could be seen in Dole’s mood. “I’m going to do well in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, all the way,” he said enthusiastically in Hartford. In Boston, he held up a copy of the Boston Herald, with a headline screaming “Bay State Voters Back Dole.”

Other states voting Tuesday are Georgia, Vermont, Colorado, Maine and Maryland. Additionally, Washington state will hold a caucus.

However, Dole continued to express concern about the unrestricted deep pockets of publishing scion Forbes.

“If Steve Forbes decides to open up another vault and says he wants to spend $35 million more, I don’t know how we can compete with him--except I think I have enough confidence in the American people that if they focus on how much someone spends, he won’t make it,” the senator told The Times.

Because he agreed to accept federal matching funds, Dole is limited to spending $37 million, a ceiling that he is fast approaching with most of the convention delegates still up for grabs. Dole advisors have discussed privately whether to risk both financial penalties and political fallout by surpassing that ceiling, although no such plan has been announced.

Dole’s impending collision with the federal spending ceiling is much a topic among his rivals.

“Dole has spent about $30 million, so the question is where will he spend the rest?” said a top Forbes strategist. “Pick your choice, Bob, because we ain’t leaving.”

N.Y. Strategy

In New York, the Forbes campaign said its advertising assault will target the state’s largest counties--Nassau, Suffolk, Erie, Westchester--and half of Queens, according to a campaign official. The campaign aims to saturate radio and television in those counties with political ads and call-in programs around 5 p.m, when ratings have shown that 60% of the state’s Republican voters tune in for their news.

“Win those five counties and you’ve won it all,” an aide said.

Forbes predicted only, “I think we’ll do well in New York where there’s a huge block of delegates. That’s what our eyes are on now.”

Alexander likewise seemed to take delight in Dole’s campaign spending predicament.

“Sen. Dole is the one with the money problem,” the former Tennessee governor said, noting that he had a comfortable margin of $20 million he could still spend, provided he could raise that much.

“One of these days, I’m going to pop out on top,” he said. He left South Carolina later Friday for Florida.

Lacey reported from Connecticut; Sahagan from Colorado. Also contributing to this story were Times staff writers Eleanor Randolph and Edwin Chen in South Carolina, and John Balzar in Los Angeles.

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