Forbes to Air First TV Ads in State Primary

Millionaire publisher Steve Forbes plans to launch a television advertising campaign in California this week, firing the first public shots in a March 26 primary election that might finally settle the crazy-quilt battle for the 1996 Republican presidential nomination.

Forbes aides, while confirming that the ads would begin at some point this week, did not disclose how extensive the campaign would be.

“We have every intention of having a budget that’s going to allow us to put on a winning campaign,” said Bill Saracino of Sacramento, Forbes’ western regional coordinator.

One Los Angeles station executive, who requested anonymity, said the campaigns of both Forbes and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole had inquired about scheduling ads.

This weekend, aides to Forbes, Dole and conservative commentator Patrick J. Buchanan all said their candidates planned full-scale campaigns through the California primary, regardless of the outcome of more than two dozen intervening contests for delegates to the Republican National Convention in San Diego in August.

Whether former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander would campaign here appeared to depend heavily on how well he does in Georgia’s primary Tuesday; another poor showing on the heels of his fourth-place finish in South Carolina on Saturday could effectively end his candidacy, experts said.

At the moment, state political experts see the winner-take-all contest for California’s 165 delegates shaping up this way:

* Forbes relying on his money and saturation television ads to press his case.

* Dole benefiting from the support of a united Republican establishment, led by Gov. Pete Wilson.

* Buchanan drawing on a coalition of conservative activists to wage guerrilla war in the grass roots.

The prospect of a lively California campaign stems partly from its huge cache of delegates, which represent more than 16% of the 996 needed to win the GOP nomination.

The fractious nature of the GOP race has increased the focus on the state. Even if one candidate begins dominating the campaign, it remains highly unlikely anyone will have surpassed the required number of delegates before the California contest.

The conventional view of California politics is that it takes a massive paid television campaign to win the Golden State, the ultimate political media market. Rather than a state in which frequent personal contact with voters is crucial, “it’s a money state,” said veteran campaign strategist Stu Spencer, a longtime advisor to former President Ronald Reagan.

This could work to Forbes’ advantage, especially as the fight for air time heats up. Because he is financing his own campaign, Forbes is not limited in the amount he can spend. His GOP rivals are accepting federal matching money, which imposes a cap on their spending. The limit for the entire primary season is about $37 million, and there have been reports Dole is nearing that figure.

But Dole’s western coordinator, Brian Lungren, disputed the importance of any money problems that could handicap Dole’s ad buys. Lungren, the brother of state Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, said, “I think if [the presidential contest] comes into California, Dole’s train will be moving so well, even with Forbes’ money, I think the Republican Party will go with someone they are comfortable with.”

Also expressing skepticism about the impact advertising will play in the primary campaign is GOP consultant Ken Khachigian, who said: “You can’t buy off this state as much as one might think.”

A veteran of numerous state and national campaigns, Khachigian most recently directed Republican Michael Huffington’s near-miss 1994 U.S. Senate campaign, a bid that would seem to offer a potential parallel to Forbes’.

Huffington, who was virtually unknown in most of California, came within a whisker of upsetting heavily favored Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein after spending $29 million of his personal fortune, mostly on hard-hitting television ads.

Khachigian, however, discounts comparisons between the Huffington campaign and Forbes’ primary prospects. That’s largely because the GOP focus on California will be so compressed--a single week following four March 19 primaries in the Midwest.

“In California,” Khachigian said, “I would put my money on one, whomever is the best stump campaigner, and two, whomever divides up the state in the most strategically sensible way.”

Khachigian also predicted there would be constant and intensive news coverage of the campaign on television stations all over California, in contrast to recent state election campaigns. This would help blunt a Forbes advantage in paid advertising.

The first evidence of grass-roots campaigning in California occurred a few days before the Feb. 26 close of voter registration. Buchanan volunteers sought to get members of Ross Perot’s Reform Party and some Democrats to re-register as Republicans so they could participate in the closed primary and, presumably, vote for the conservative commentator.

Buchanan’s state chairman, State Sen. Richard Mountjoy of Arcadia, said about 150,000 Reform Party members and Democrats were contacted through registration lists obtained from election officials. Final registration figures have not been compiled, so Mountjoy does not know if the effort paid off.

Some Buchanan workers said they had gotten voter lists from their Reform Party counterparts. But Platt Thompson, a Reform Party leader, said his organization had “no connection with Buchanan campaigning.”

“Hell, the guy’s a Republican,” he said.

Two California campaign debates have been proposed: one in San Francisco on March 22 and one sponsored by the CNN television network at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley on March 24.

Meanwhile, balloting already has begun. County vote registrars have been receiving applications for absentee ballots since last week. Voting by mail has become increasingly important in California--more than 20% of the votes cast in the 1994 primary election were through the mail.

Dole and Buchanan already have visited the state during this primary season; each also might benefit from previous politicking in the state. Dole has come to California frequently in the past to speak at fund-raisers for candidates within the state. Buchanan collected 26% of the vote in the 1992 California GOP primary against then-President George Bush. Angela “Bay” Buchanan, his sister and campaign manager, is a former Irvine political consultant who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP nomination for state treasurer in 1990.

Forbes, who has never run for a previous office, is less well known in the state. In a statewide Field Poll conducted at the end of February, he won support of only 12% of 435 registered Republican sampled, compared with 30% for Dole, 18% for Buchanan and 16% for Alexander.

If California does become decisive, it would be the first time in a GOP contest since 1964, when then-Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona defeated New York Gov. Nelson A. Rockefeller; the victory clinched Goldwater’s nomination.

Among those looking forward to a meaningful campaign is Buck Johns, a Newport Beach developer and conservative activist. “In my 26 years in California, we’ve never been able to participate,” he said.

Johns is enthused even though his own candidate--Texas Sen. Phil Gramm--is no longer in the contest. Gramm left the race after scoring poorly in New Hampshire.

“I didn’t have a backup horse,” Johns said. “I didn’t figure Gramm would fold so quick.”

So far, Johns and many of his fellow Gramm backers have declined to follow Gramm into the Dole tent, or to any other candidate.

“There just is not somebody who clearly fits with us. Every time we start to make a move, the numbers change. And we say, ‘Why make a move now?’ ”

But Mountjoy, Buchanan’s chairman, said many Gramm supporters--if not the leadership--are among those who have swamped the state campaign’s telephones with offers to work for the candidate. “It’s like herding cats through a fish market,” Mountjoy said.