NEWS ANALYSIS : In Japan, Flap Adds to Anxiety About U.S. Ties

China’s intimidation campaign against Taiwan, aimed at shaking the island’s confidence before its first direct presidential election, is rattling the nations on the sidelines of the conflict--and none more so than Japan.

Leaders across the region, normally concerned with maintaining good relations with Beijing, are condemning the mainland’s missile launches and urging peace in the area.

But of all the neighboring Asian nations, Japan has the most to lose if tensions between Taiwan and China erupt.

Military analysts agree that any U.S. support of Taiwan would probably be staged from bases in Japan, making Tokyo a target of China’s enmity and testing the U.S.-Japan security alliance. For Japan--caught between its American ally and Asia’s giant, which wields increasing economic and military clout--the defense agreement has suddenly become a source of insecurity.

“It raises a big question for us,” said Masashi Nishihara, a regional security expert at Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies. “Does Japan want to maintain an alliance with the U.S. or friendly relations with China? We may have to make a choice between the two.”

But Japanese policymakers are reluctant to discuss the concrete details of how to respond to any escalation in the conflict. “We don’t like to even talk about the possibility of military conflict,” a Japanese government official said with a shudder. “Japan is very afraid of China. This is a taboo topic.”

Over the weekend, China raised tensions by announcing that it will use live ammunition in its next round of military exercises, scheduled to begin Tuesday, thus increasing the margin for an explosive miscalculation. It has already fired three unarmed missiles near the Taiwanese ports of Kaohsiung and Keelung, and Beijing has said it will continue its war games up to or even beyond Taiwan’s March 23 election.

The Beijing-Taipei conflict points up a paradox for Japan, which may find itself an unwitting player in the regional power drama: Even as Okinawans demanded a scaling back of the American military presence on their island after the rape of a 12-year-old schoolgirl by U.S. servicemen, the tensions in the Taiwan Strait have underscored the importance of the U.S. presence in the Pacific. Okinawa would be a crucial base for air and logistic support if the conflict in the nearby strait escalated, analysts say.

But if Japan is forced to pick sides--despite intermittent moves to scrap the U.S.-Japan security treaty--Beijing’s belligerence makes the short-term choice clearer.

Even one of Japan’s most vocal opponents of U.S. troops, Okinawa Gov. Masahide Ota, has urged Tokyo to take “appropriate measures” toward China, noting that one of the missiles landed near Japan’s Yonaguni Island.

Already, Japanese coast guard cutters are hovering at the edges of territorial waters near Taiwan. U.S. warships, including the aircraft carriers Independence from the U.S. naval base in Yokosuka, Japan, and the Nimitz from the Persian Gulf, reportedly were moving closer to monitor the Chinese maneuvers.

Nevertheless, the U.S.-Japan security alliance will be a key subject for discussion next month when President Clinton meets with Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto in Japan. Meanwhile, U.S. and Japanese defense officials are busy considering “every possible scenario,” Japanese policymakers say, and negotiating what kind of help Japan would be allowed to offer under the constraints of the country’s “peace constitution.”

The post-World War II constitution, written under the guidance of occupying U.S. forces, prohibits Japan’s Self-Defense Forces from entering into conflict, although the 1960 U.S.-Japan Security Treaty allows Japan to support U.S. military operations in the region with “prior consultation” between Washington and Tokyo.

“Japan would prefer not to get involved at all, but our agreement with the U.S. demands it,” defense expert Nishihara said. “If worse comes to worst, Japan may have to sacrifice its relationship with China.”

Despite close ties with former colony Taiwan and its president--Lee Teng-hui attended the Imperial University in Kyoto and speaks Japanese perfectly--Japan is also one of the top investors in China and is eager to maintain good relations with the growing power.

Even taking part in economic sanctions against Beijing--a probable preliminary step to any military intervention--could have severe consequences, because Chinese Trade Minister Wu Yi has vowed trade retaliation. Like Taiwan, Japan has wealth but few natural resources and is vulnerable to disruption of shipping lanes and other economic interference.

Japan’s delicate position explains Hashimoto’s intense interest in the escalating conflict. Sources close to the prime minister say he has demanded daily briefings on the situation. He has said he is “disappointed” that China continued on its provocative course after he personally urged Chinese Premier Li Peng during last month’s Asia-Europe summit in Thailand to show restraint.

He may have reason to worry: Defense Agency officials said that Japan’s radar equipment failed to detect the test missiles Beijing fired last week.