Doubts Bubble Beneath Broad Dole Victory

Significant doubts about GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole bubbled beneath his sweeping victory in the California Republican primary Tuesday, according to a Times exit poll.

Though Dole amassed commanding margins over Patrick J. Buchanan with virtually all segments of the party, a substantial minority of Republican voters said they would not now support the Kansas senator in the November general election, the survey of voters leaving the polls found.

Looking forward to November, the poll suggests that Dole faces his greatest risk of defection in California from Republican moderates and liberals, not from the conservative voters who constitute Buchanan’s core support. Large numbers of moderate and liberal GOP primary voters now say they intend to defect to President Clinton.

Overall, about one-quarter of GOP primary voters said they would prefer Clinton over Dole in a two-way race. In a three-way race with Ross Perot on the ballot, roughly three in 10 GOP primary voters said they would vote for Clinton or Perot over Dole, the survey found. By contrast, nearly nine in 10 of the hard-core party activists who voted in the low-turnout Democratic primary said they would support Clinton over Dole; even with Perot added to the mix, 84% of Democratic primary voters said they would stick with the president.

Those potential defections could foreshadow trouble ahead in California for Dole. Roughly the same percentage of Democratic primary voters said in 1984 that they would defect from Walter F. Mondale, who was ultimately crushed in the state by Ronald Reagan. On the other hand, Clinton recovered from an even weaker position with voters in the June 1992 California Democratic primary--when a significant share said they might defect to Perot--and won the state handily.

Hardly any GOP primary voters said they wanted Dole to name as his vice president either of the California politicians sometimes mentioned for the post. Just 6% of primary voters said they wanted Dole to pick Gov. Pete Wilson as his running mate; only 2% said they support state Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren for the post.

Colin L. Powell, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was the overwhelming favorite of Republican primary voters for the position: Over one in three of those voting said Dole should pick Powell. That was nearly four times greater than the number who preferred Jack Kemp, the former Cabinet secretary who was the second most frequent choice. Buchanan finished just behind Kemp.

The Times Poll, supervised by acting poll director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 4,369 primary voters, including 1,816 GOP primary voters, as they exited their polling places Tuesday; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Dole’s victory over Buchanan was impressive not only in its magnitude but its breadth. Dole carried all segments of the party, humbling Buchanan even among voters the conservative columnist considers his ideological and demographic base.

Dole ran up large margins over Buchanan among voters who described themselves as very conservative, white, born-again Christians, gun owners and those without college educations--all groups that Buchanan has targeted throughout the primary season. At the same time, Dole maintained his dominance with the moderate, more affluent and college-educated voters who have bolstered Dole and disdained Buchanan throughout the primary season.

Yet the poll shows that in California Dole faces a substantial risk of defection from those moderate Republicans--a finding that inverts much of the prevailing political wisdom.

Over the past several weeks, political strategists and commentators alike have focused much attention on whether Dole can reconcile with the most conservative elements of his party--those who have provided the shock troops for Buchanan’s insurgency. But the survey shows he faces relatively little risk of defection from California conservatives against Clinton or Perot.

More than four in five conservative GOP primary voters say they would support Dole in a two-way race with Clinton; in a three-way race with Perot, Dole still attracts nearly eight in 10 conservative primary voters. Even conservatives who voted for Buchanan give Dole nearly 80% of their votes against Clinton, and two-thirds in a three-way race with Clinton and Perot.

But with moderates, Dole doesn’t fare nearly as well. Nearly four in 10 GOP primary voters described themselves as liberal or moderate: With these voters, Dole ran no better than even against Clinton. In a three-way race with Perot, Clinton would actually run narrowly ahead of Dole among moderate and liberal GOP primary voters, with each man attracting just under 40% of the vote and Perot attracting about one in seven.

Similarly, Dole would beat Clinton soundly among those GOP primary voters who believe most abortions should be banned. Only about one-tenth of those voters said they would defect to Clinton. But among those who believe abortion should remain legal, one-third now say they would vote for Clinton over Dole.

All of this raises questions about whether Dole’s success at unifying the party depends on his making peace with Buchanan.

About one in five Buchanan voters did say they would vote for Clinton over Dole, and nearly one-third of Buchanan supporters said they would prefer Perot or Clinton in a three-way race. But the Buchanan voters who were most likely to say they would defect were the moderates who voted for him. And those moderates were more likely than conservatives to say they supported Buchanan Tuesday only as a protest or because they considered him the best of a bad lot.

Given that motivation for their support, those voters may be less susceptible to influence from Buchanan than the commentator’s most conservative supporters. Those conservatives, the poll shows, are clearly inclined to stick with Dole.

Buchanan might create much more difficulty for Dole if he bolted the party to launch an independent presidential campaign in November. About one in six of all GOP primary voters--including half of Buchanan’s supporters--said they would likely support Buchanan if he ran as an independent candidate.

Overall, only six in 10 Republican primary voters said they believe the eventual GOP nominee would carry the state against Clinton. Even one-quarter of Dole’s voters said they thought Clinton would win the state.

All these signs of potential hesitation about Dole notwithstanding, his actual support in the primary demonstrated impressive reach across the breadth of his party.

Dole carried at least 60% of voters who described themselves as liberal, moderate or somewhat conservative; even voters who considered themselves very conservative gave Dole more than half of their votes.

Similarly, Dole carried at least 59% of every income group but one. Only the thin sliver of primary voters who earned less than $20,000 a year departed from the pattern, giving Dole a narrow plurality over Buchanan.

Dole demonstrated similar consistency across the educational spectrum.

Dole attracted roughly three of five votes from voters 30 and older. But he continued to have a harder time winning younger voters, a potentially worrisome general election portent for the 72-year-old GOP nominee. Asked directly, just under one in four primary voters said they believed Dole is too old to be president.

The flip side of age--experience--was the largest selling point for Dole’s supporters. Asked why they voted for Dole, over half of his voters cited his experience--more than double the percentage who cited leadership, the next most common consideration.

Economic, rather than social issues, were the top priorities for California Republican voters, the poll made clear. Buchanan ran virtually even with Dole among voters who cited immigration as a prime concern, but they constituted just one in nine primary voters. Buchanan won voters who said abortion was their principal concern (with about 40% of their votes, compared to 25% for Dole and for Alan Keyes), but they were just 8% of primary voters.

Republican primary voters closely divided on the question of abortion itself. Just over half said abortion should remain legal, the position held by Clinton.

Special consultant Dwight Morris and research analyst Monika McDermott contributed to this story.