Buchanan Pauses for Political Inventory

After a month of running on empty, Patrick J. Buchanan’s endless highway of campaign rallies gave way Thursday to a round of internal meetings with aides and supporters to determine what he should seek at the Republican National Convention in San Diego and whether to break away from the party entirely.

That latter option appears increasingly unlikely, despite the desires of some of Buchanan’s more vocal supporters. Although Buchanan and three dozen other participants who gathered for the discussions at a northern Virginia hotel said no immediate decisions would be forthcoming, the drift of the Republican political landscape in recent days--and subtle shifts in Buchanan’s own public comments about his future--appear to narrow the likelihood he would run as an independent.

As he plans upcoming primary battles against Sen. Bob Dole in Pennsylvania, Indiana and Alabama at his McLean, Va., home and begins work on a “McLean Manifesto”--a call to arms for the GOP’s conservative wing--Buchanan is keeping one eye open to the presidential election of 2000.

Others may believe he has no chance of ever becoming the GOP nominee, but Buchanan believes he would be a formidable contender four years from now if Dole loses to Clinton in November--strong impetus, he acknowledges, not to burn his bridges this year.

“There’s a very powerful persuasive argument to stay in” the party, Buchanan said in a recent interview. “If Sen. Dole is nominated and loses, by the year 2000, [he] will have departed from the scene politically, Bill Clinton will have departed from the scene politically and my guess is Ross Perot will have departed politically. Who will then have the strongest base?”

A key part of Buchanan’s own personal base is secure. Despite speculation that his campaign might make him too controversial, Cable News Network President Tom Johnson said in an interview that the network would “absolutely” welcome Buchanan back to its broadcasts.

“We hope he will return after his campaign,” said Johnson, who added that he has yet to discuss the prospect with Buchanan. Though the network brought in conservative commentator Robert Novak to substitute for Buchanan on its “Crossfire” program, “I would like very much to have him back,” Johnson said. “He is very provocative, knowledgeable and always interesting.”

Buchanan earned roughly $300,000 a year working for CNN before the campaign. Perhaps just as important, the job gave him a priceless forum for remaining in the public eye.

For the time being, however, the biggest question confronting Buchanan is how to handle his political prospects between now and the Republican convention this August. Participants at Thursday’s meetings, who ranged from Buchanan and his top aides to antiabortion activist Phyllis Schlafly and Michigan campaign organizer Burl Adkins, indicated before the meeting that they would discuss strategy for the convention, what issues to fight for in the Republican platform and the option of a third-party candidacy.

Buchanan’s failure to reach even 20% of the vote this week in the California and Nevada primaries continued a steady marginalization that set in once the Republican primary season accelerated.

“With all the talk of demanding a place at the table, he hasn’t been getting the numbers to back it up,” said one Republican strategist. “If he doesn’t have enough support to throw his weight around at the convention, how is he going to mount a credible third party?”

His decision, Buchanan has said in recent days, will be determined in part by the degree to which Dole and the Republican establishment incorporate his ideas--particularly on abortion, the economic insecurity of the middle class and immigration.

Despite the public frostiness between the two campaigns, Buchanan repeatedly noted last week in California that Dole is echoing many of his pet issues and argued that many of Dole’s delegates may be even more supportive. All that hints at a more peaceful platform debate at the San Diego convention than the hypothetical floor battles Buchanan has at times threatened.

“You think all these delegates are Dole-ites?” Buchanan said. “Dole doesn’t fight us on ideas and issues. Why would his people?”

Buchanan and his aides are aware that they would not be negotiating from strength when the GOP platform is debated.

“At the end of the day, what has been true and what continues to be true is that he who owns the delegates has the capacity to exert his will,” said Bill Greener, the GOP’s ranking convention official.

On Thursday, Dole, Republican National Chairman Haley Barbour and other congressional leaders held out olive branches to Buchanan during a unity gathering in Washington.

“I hope Pat Buchanan joins us,” Dole said. “His future and our future are the same. They are in the party.” Barbour added that the Republican leadership would “give him every opportunity to rejoin” Dole’s election effort.

While still vowing to hold off an endorsement until the San Diego gathering and brooding publicly about Dole’s attacks on him as an “extremist,” Buchanan has begun admitting openly that his tough public stance is part of his effort to win pre-convention “leverage.”

Buchanan’s sense of realpolitik--honed during his days as an advisor to Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan--has convinced some supporters that he would never walk away from the GOP. Schlafly, for example, opposes the third-party route and said she doubts Buchanan would spurn the GOP.

“Pat is a Republican, after all,” she said, adding that she did not foresee any “terrible ruckus. We would abide by the rules.”

A few of Buchanan’s top aides are reportedly intrigued by the idea of his running as an independent. Buchanan’s sister and closest aide, Angela “Bay” Buchanan, has had aides contact election officials in several states to learn about filing deadlines and the possible mechanics of a third-party run.

But she insisted earlier this week that the calls were “just to satisfy our curiosity. We can’t consider it if we don’t know how it can be done.”

The strongest pressure for a third-party run has come from rank-and-file Buchanan supporters. Buchanan said his mail is “running 15 to one” in favor of such a move.

At several recent rallies in Northern California, Buchanan supporters’ alienation from Dole ignited into outright hostility. In San Jose, talk show host Jeff Metcalf, one of the speakers introducing Buchanan, savaged Dole for watering down the congressional “contract with America.”

“Sen. Dole supported all that garbage,” Metcalf thundered. “So how can we reward him with our votes for all that treachery?”

As a crowd of 1,500 roared with approval, one man yelled: “Flush Dole!” Another screamed: “Put Dole in a hole!”

“It will be difficult for Dole to do anything to satisfy some of us,” said Daniel Perry, Buchanan’s coordinator for the Northern California coast. “We’re not sheep in the Buchanan campaign.”

But Buchanan, his sister and his closest aides have consistently made decisions about the path of their campaign this year on their own--without consulting the masses who voted for him.

“My hope is we can pull this all together” sometime soon after the Pennsylvania primary next month, Buchanan said recently.

Times staff writer Eleanor Randolph contributed to this story.