GOP, Dole Face Danger Signs; Clinton Leading

Like twin anchors, disappointment with the Republican Congress and a lack of enthusiasm for Sen. Bob Dole are dragging the GOP into dangerous waters as the 1996 election comes into view, a nationwide Times Poll has found.

The survey shows President Clinton holding a commanding 55%-to-37% advantage over Dole and a plurality of voters agreeing that the GOP does not “deserve to maintain control of Congress.”

Though most observers still expect the presidential race to narrow in the months ahead, the survey finds the GOP moving into the election season in a deteriorating position. Clinton’s job approval has spiked to 55%--among the highest ratings in his presidency. By contrast, support for the agenda of the GOP congressional leadership has dipped to 37%.

Moreover, the survey shows Clinton attracting a broad base of support--winning in virtually every demographic group--as Dole hemorrhages among groups Republicans have long considered cornerstones of their presidential coalition, from men to college-educated and upper-income voters.

Even the introduction of new challengers doesn’t disrupt the basic calculus: In a potential four-way race, with Ross Perot and Ralph Nader added to the mix, Clinton’s lead over Dole only narrows to 13 percentage points.

At the same time, voters by a 7-percentage-point margin now say they prefer Democrats, rather than Republicans, in next fall’s congressional races. To put that in perspective, in 1994, just before Republicans won 52 seats and control of Congress, they enjoyed only a 5-point advantage on that question.

No matter whom they support, Americans have limited expectations for the next president. Just 39% say the result of the election will have a “major impact” on their lives; a 54% majority say the outcome of the campaign will not significantly affect their lives.

The Times Poll, supervised by acting polling director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,374 adults and 1,149 registered voters from April 13 through 16; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The intensifying heat of the campaign in the months ahead and unpredictable turns of events at home and abroad could reshape all of these attitudes. But, from every angle, the poll suggests that Dole and the GOP Congress begin the general election drive with much more ground to make up than most Republicans assume.

Historically, the trend in presidential approval ratings has been among the strongest indicators of the vote for an incumbent president. By this time in their fourth year in office, both George Bush and Jimmy Carter had seen their approval ratings drop to around 40%, foreshadowing their eventual losses. By contrast, Clinton’s marks have now been rising since last fall.

Lift From Economy

Overall, 55% of those polled said they approved of Clinton’s performance as president, 40% disapproved. Last fall, Clinton had a 50% approval rating, and in the fall of 1994, fewer than 45% approved.

To some extent, Clinton is benefiting from a continued lifting of gloom about the economy. Just over half of those polled say the economy is not in recession--an assessment substantially more optimistic than either the 1992 or 1994 election seasons.

But even more important for Clinton is that he continues to draw substantial support from voters unhappy with the country’s direction. In the survey, just 29% of those polled say the country is moving in the right direction, while 61% say it is on the wrong track--only modestly more optimistic than in 1992 and 1994.

That level of dissatisfaction could still become a dark cloud for Clinton--traditionally, voters who consider the country on the wrong track vote against the incumbent. But, strikingly, Dole so far trails Clinton among dissatisfied voters-- 48% to 42% in a two-way race. Voters satisfied with the country’s direction are behaving in the traditional manner: They prefer the incumbent, 66% to 29%.

The poll pinpoints some other thin spots in Clinton’s support. Voters continue to have doubts about his character. Opinions about his handling of the economy remain equivocal, with 46% disapproving and 45% approving. Asked how the country has changed since Clinton took office, only 26% say it is in better shape, while 23% say it is worse and 49% say things are the same. Just 43% of those surveyed said Clinton is “working hard to bring fundamental change,” while 48% say he is governing “in a business as usual manner.”

But Dole scores no better on that last measure, with 44% saying he supports fundamental change and 47% insisting he represents business as usual. And the poll suggests one reason Clinton is not paying more of a price for dissatisfaction with the country’s direction: By 2 to 1, Americans believe that the Republican Congress, not Clinton, is setting the agenda in Washington.

Attracting voters unhappy with the country’s direction--the traditional base for any challenger-- must be a top priority for the Dole campaign. But the potential presence of Perot and Nader on the ballot complicates his task.

Perot and Nader do draw somewhat more votes from Clinton than from Dole. But among those who say they would support Nader or Perot, 56% disapprove of Clinton’s job performance and 68% say the country is on the wrong track. If Dole is to beat Clinton, he needs those voters. To the extent they move toward the independents, it reduces the pool of discontented voters on which Dole can draw.

Clinton’s current advantage over Dole is sweeping, almost disorienting, in its breadth. In the survey, Clinton leads Dole in virtually every demographic group: all education levels, all age levels and among whites as well as blacks. Women prefer Clinton over Dole by a surprising 27-percentage-point margin; but Clinton also leads among men by 8 percentage points. Clinton leads with all income groups except those earning between $40,000 and $60,000 annually; even voters earning above $60,000 give Clinton a 16-percentage-point margin over Dole.

Young, Old

Voters younger than 29 and older than 65 alike give Clinton nearly 30-point advantages over Dole. (With voters in between, Clinton’s lead is narrower.) While Democrats are virtually united behind Clinton, (he leads 86% to 8%), 1-in-5 Republicans now say they prefer Clinton over Dole.

Clinton leads Dole narrowly among independents and by 26 percentage points among voters who describe themselves as moderates. Dole carries just 54% of self-identified conservatives, and he only runs even with Clinton among white males and white Southerners--groups that in recent years have given Republicans commanding margins. Catholics, typically a key swing group, hardly deserve that label at this point: They now prefer Clinton over Dole by 58% to 33%. Only white evangelical Christians remain a loyal cornerstone of the GOP coalition, preferring Dole by 27 percentage points.

Though Republicans hope that Clinton’s recent veto of a bill outlawing late-term abortions might cost him in November, the poll finds little evidence of that so far. Asked how Clinton’s veto might affect their vote, 32% said it would make them more likely to support the president, while 29% said it would push them toward Dole and 35% said it would make no difference. (Despite the loud protests from leaders of the Catholic Church, Catholic voters are no more likely to leave Clinton over the issue than are non-Catholics, the poll indicates.)

Likewise, Clinton’s defense of affirmative action registered little impact: 35% said they would be more likely to vote for Dole because of his opposition to affirmative action, 32% said they would be more likely to vote for Clinton and 27% said the dispute would have no impact on their decision.

By contrast, 54% of voters said Clinton’s support for the assault-weapons ban would make them more likely to vote for him. Only 22% said Dole’s call to repeal the ban would make them more sympathetic to him. And, although the poll didn’t measure the relationship between support for raising the minimum wage and presidential vote, fully three-fourths of voters support an increase--which Clinton supports and Dole opposes.

More telling than these issues in shaping the vote are assessments of Dole and Clinton on a range of personal attributes. The poll measured two sets of such characteristics: One focused on measures of private character, such as honesty and conviction; the other on what might be called public character--judgments about the two men’s ability to diagnose and deal with the nation’s problems.

Character Counts

Dole exhibited much more strength on the questions related to private character. By 48% to 32%, those polled said Dole had more honesty and integrity than Clinton; by 49% to 38%, respondents felt Dole stood up for his convictions more than Clinton. Asked who had stronger leadership qualities, voters split almost evenly--47% named Dole and 46% Clinton.

But Clinton leads Dole on most of the second set of questions. Asked who better understands the problems of average Americans, voters picked Clinton over Dole by 48% to 33%; by 45% to 33%, they said Clinton rather than Dole had “a clear vision for the future”; by 42% to 38%, they thought Clinton had better ideas than Dole for solving the country’s problems. On two final questions, the contenders battle to a standstill: Voters split almost evenly when asked who has better ideas to strengthen the economy and would improve America’s standing in the world.

A separate statistical technique known as a regression analysis was used to isolate which of these assessments most strongly influenced voters’ choices in the race itself. That analysis showed that the measures of public character exerted roughly twice as much influence as the judgments about the two men’s private character. Likewise, attitudes toward the Republican congressional agenda also exerted much more influence over voters’ choices than their assessments of Clinton’s and Dole’s private character.

That’s not good news for Dole because attitudes toward the GOP agenda remain only equivocal. In the survey, 37% said they approved “of the program the Republican congressional leadership is trying to pass,” while 39% said they disapproved; that’s down from last fall, when Americans, by a 6-percentage-point plurality, said they backed the GOP agenda.

Almost daily, Dole lashes Clinton for vetoing much of the Republican congressional agenda. But by 51% to 35%, voters say that Clinton was right to reject the GOP legislation. Likewise, Democrats now slightly lead Republicans when voters are asked which party could best handle the most important problem facing the country.

Asked if Republicans “based on their record over the last year and a half deserve to maintain control in Congress,” a plurality of 46% say no; 41% say yes.

Similarly, by 50% to 43%, those polled said they plan to vote for Democrats, rather than Republicans in next fall’s election. The gender gap looms as a huge problem for Republicans in the congressional ballot: Men give Republicans an 11-percentage-point advantage, women prefer Democrats by 24 points.

The survey found considerable support for unifying control of Congress and the White House. Just 20% of those polled said they preferred having the two parties divide control (with 12% saying they wanted Clinton and a GOP Congress and 8% preferring Dole and Democrats). Thirty-six percent of those surveyed said they would like to see Clinton and a Democratic Congress elected; 32% said they wanted Dole to govern with a Republican Congress.

Times Poll research analyst Monika McDermott contributed to this story.

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Clinton Has the Edge

Bob Dole has a long road ahead of him if he is to capture the presidency in November. Americans are giving Bill Clinton high marks for the way he is handling his job and believe that he better understands problems of the average American. In addition, Americans don’t think the GOP should maintain control of Congress, and they disapprove of the agenda the Republicans are trying to pass.

* If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? (among registered voters)

TWO-WAY RACE

Bill Clinton: 55%

Bob Dole: 37%

FOUR-WAY RACE

Clinton: 45%

Dole: 32%

Ross Perot: 13%

Ralph Nader: 6%

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* Which candidate better displays these following qualities? (among registered voters)

*--*

Neither/ Clinton Dole Both Understands average Americans’ problems 48% 33% 14% Vision for the future 45% 33% 13% Better ideas for solving nation’s problems 42% 38% 13% Better ideas for the economy 41% 40% 10% Strong leadership 46% 47% 4% Will make U.S. respected in the world 41% 43% 9% Stands up for his convictions 38% 49% 8% Honesty and integrity 32% 48% 13%

*--*

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* Do the candidates’ views on the following make you more likely to vote for Clinton or for dole? (among registered voters)

*--*

Makes no Clinton Dole difference Semiautomatic weapons 54% 22% 22% Late-term abortions 32% 29% 35% Affirmative action 32% 35% 27%

*--*

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* Clinton job approval (among all adults)

April ’96

Approve: 55%

Disapprove: 40%

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% where all answer categories are not shown.

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How poll was conducted: The Times Poll contacted 1,374 adults nationwide, including 1,149 registered voters, by telephone April 13-16. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and party identification. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups the ror margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.