China’s Big Bang Theory

Every 300,000 years or so, give or take a few score millennia, an asteroid collides with Earth. The next time such a threat looms, China wants to be ready. That’s its latest excuse for refusing to join the other nuclear powers in agreeing to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which would permanently ban all nuclear weapons tests. “The door to peaceful nuclear explosions should not be closed,” a Foreign Ministry statement said. Besides saving the Earth from an asteroid peril that its political leaders alone seem capable of perceiving, China also sees other beneficial uses of nuclear explosions. As examples, it lists digging deep craters for storing water or oil and even warding off climatic changes.

If all this seems way out, it’s because, like the asteroids, it is. Astronomers know of no asteroid that could strike Earth any time soon, say in the next 100,000 or so years, which puts any danger well down the list of Things to Worry About Today. Granted, an asteroid, even a small one, could produce a terrestrial mess that, frankly, would not be a pretty sight to behold. But in terms of risk assessment, it’s clear that Earth’s inhabitants ought to be more concerned about nuclear weapons testing than about getting hit by a rock from the far reaches of our solar system.

Reasoned persuasion may yet bring Beijing around to signing the test ban treaty. On the other hand, the inventiveness of its excuses for not doing so leaves open the question of whether reason really stands a chance.