Cost Estimate Thwarts GOP Antimissile Bill

A Republican plan to make a national missile defense system an election-year issue ran into flak Wednesday when analysts said the project would cost three times its budgeted amount, forcing House leaders to withdraw their bill from the floor.

GOP leaders had intended to make deployment of a national missile defense a centerpiece of their platform on military policy, but they retreated after the Congressional Budget Office said the plan could cost about $10 billion over the next five years, about $7 billion more than had been budgeted.

At the same time, in a commencement address at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy in New London, Conn., President Clinton charged that the GOP plan “would waste money, weaken our defenses and violate arms control agreements that make us more secure. That is the wrong way to defend America.”

In addition to putting a $10-billion price tag on the costs of developing the system proposed by Republican leaders, the nonpartisan CBO also estimated it could take $31 billion to $60 billion to purchase the actual antimissile system, with even more money needed to operate it each year.

Rep. Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), one of the leading proponents of the missile defense legislation, called the CBO estimate unrealistically high and said Republicans would be back with a less-expensive substitute bill within three weeks.

“I don’t think it’s a show-stopper,” he said of the CBO estimate.

Nevertheless, the double-barreled attack marked a setback for Republicans, including presumptive GOP presidential nominee Sen. Bob Dole, who has argued that the system is necessary to protect the United States from possible ballistic missile attacks by North Korea or Iran.

The differences between the two parties mainly involve the timing of a decision on whether to deploy a defense system. The Republicans would commit the nation to deploying a system by 2003. Clinton wants to develop a system first and then decide whether to build it. If the president were to decide to go ahead with it once development is finished, his system might still be in place by 2003.

Republicans contend that rapid deployment is urgent because rogue states such as Iran and North Korea will soon be capable of firing such missiles at the United States, while Clinton says they still are a decade away and the country can afford the time to examine alternative systems before making a decision on deployment.

Clinton told his audience on Wednesday that the speeded-up schedule sought by the Republicans would commit the United States to a missile defense system “that could be obsolete tomorrow. . . . I think we should not leap before we look.”

Republicans have been contending that the administration has cut too much from defense spending, making the military unable to modernize its arsenal rapidly enough and, in the case of missile defense, leaving the nation unable to ward off attacks.

In separate defense money bills in both the Senate and the House, GOP lawmakers are seeking to add $13 billion to the Pentagon budget to boost spending for modernizing weapons and equipment in all four of the armed services. They are also pushing the antimissile system.

The CBO estimates Wednesday appeared to raise questions about how effectively the Republicans would be able to push through their missile defense proposal, which has been dubbed the Defend America Act of 1996, for maximum appeal to voters. The proposal is similar to one dubbed “Star Wars” that was developed during the Reagan administration.

Under administration plans, the Pentagon is slated to spend $13.5 billion between now and 2001 on various forms of missile defense--including funds to develop, but not deploy, initial elements of a ballistic-missile defense system. The Republican plan would significantly increase that spending.

Republicans complained Wednesday, however, that the CBO estimates were pegged to the most expensive of several possible options for devising a missile defense system.

Weldon said in an interview that estimates provided by the individual armed services showed that by adapting and upgrading existing technology, the Pentagon could have a system ready to deploy for between $2.5 billion and $5 billion more than currently is being spent.

“We’re going to be trying to get harder numbers from CBO,” he said.

The CBO’s estimates were an embarrassment to the Republicans. Weldon, who made it clear that he had not been in on the drafting of the GOP plan, groused that “we should not have had this bump in the road.”

In his Coast Guard Academy address, Clinton also commented indirectly on next week’s election in Israel. The administration has made little secret of its preference for the reelection of Labor Prime Minister Shimon Peres over Likud challenger Benjamin Netanyahu.

Speaking to the Israeli public, Clinton said that the United States has supported them in their search for peace with the Palestinians and their Arab neighbors.

“As Israel takes further risks for peace in the future, it can count on further manifestations of American support,” Clinton said. “Now is not the time to turn back, and the United States must do its part.”

Broder reported from New London and Pine from Washington.