Plan Addresses Expected College Enrollment Surge

Nearly half a million more students than are now enrolled will flood California’s public colleges and universities in 10 years, and many could be shut out unless civic leaders begin preparing now, warns a report released Thursday.

Offering what it describes as the first comprehensive plan to address the expected surge in undergraduate enrollment dubbed “Tidal Wave II,” the new report by the California Higher Education Policy Center proposes what are sure to be controversial steps to maintain both access and quality at the University of California, California State University and 106-campus community college systems.

Among its recommendations: Build no new campuses until at least 2006; expand the use of existing classrooms, which now are utilized 35 to 45 hours a week; encourage students to earn some college credits before they enroll; raise tuition annually but moderately, no more than 6% a year; focus additional funds on undergraduates, not graduate programs; and eliminate some regulations that hinder flexibility.

Authors of the report, which is addressed to “the governor, the Legislature, the higher education community and the citizens of California,” hope it will jump-start the debate over a problem whose sheer magnitude has stymied some educators and lawmakers.

“It isn’t that this state has a bad plan for accommodating the increase in student enrollment--it has no plan at all,” said Patrick M. Callan, executive director of the policy center, a San Jose-based think tank. “The good news is that the problem can be solved. The bad news is there’s no silver bullet.”

In the 16-page report, Callan and his colleagues warn that while an improved state economy might suggest that the budget crisis of the early ‘90s is over, “this is the illusory calm before the next storm.”

In 10 years, the report asserts, 488,000 more Californians than are now enrolled will be seeking a college education in the three state systems--a huge boom that could require an additional $5.2 billion to support. No matter how much the economy improves, the report concludes, the state won’t have that kind of money.

But that $5.2 billion in additional funding can be reduced to just $1.9 billion, the report says, if the state, the colleges and universities and the students all do their share of reorganizing and adapting.

The report says students, for example, must work harder to prepare for college so they can “move through the undergraduate curriculum more purposefully than in the past.” Now, many students fail to complete their college requirements in four years.

The governor and legislators must preserve the state’s investment in higher education by increasing financial aid and providing additional funding only to schools that can show they are enrolling more eligible students and are becoming more cost-effective, the report said.

And the state’s public colleges should reallocate many resources--focusing money for a particular graduate discipline, for example, at a single campus instead of having several such programs around the state. The report also says many institutions could accommodate more students by offering a full undergraduate program during the summer.

“California faces a stark choice: We must either decide to reduce the level of opportunity for the next generation, or we must find a way to reduce the cost per student,” Callan said. Though the report has not yet been widely distributed, Callan said he briefed the governor, key legislators and the heads of the three public college systems on its highlights earlier this week.

On Thursday, administrators at UC and Cal State--though reluctant to endorse the report before thoroughly evaluating it--said many of its recommendations seem valid, and some are already being attempted.

UC spokesman Terry Colvin said the report “does a fairly good job” of summing up the problems ahead. The proposed ban on new campuses, however, is at odds with a planned 10th UC campus in Merced that now has a start date of 2005.

“We believe that the reality of Tidal Wave II warrants opening that campus, which will also seek to increase participation levels at UC of Central Valley students,” Colvin said.

Molly Broad, Cal State’s executive vice chancellor, praised the report as “sensible.”

“I’m sure we’ll find differences of viewpoints on the specifics, but . . . to accomplish the goal, we’re going to have to change the way we do business, dramatically and comprehensively.”