After 20 Years, Dodgers at Crossroads

The tests showing the ulcer and heart damage were definitive.

The prognosis is hazy.

Tom Lasorda will probably return to the Dodgers’ helm in 1996.

But ‘97?

“I recognize that there’s going to be a certain amount of speculation, but anyone looking to next season is way beyond where we are right now,” said Fred Claire, the club’s executive vice president.

“The No. 1 issue is Tommy’s health. Nothing is a close second.”

Perhaps, but that speculation is certain to follow the Dodgers through the rest of a difficult summer.

A potential distraction amid the pursuit of a National League West title.

An inevitable issue--just as it has been in each of the last few years, when Lasorda’s rehiring didn’t hinge on questions of health, as it now will.

Lasorda may be headed for a full recovery, but the countdown on his two-decade tenure as Dodger manager would seem to have begun.

Twenty and out? No, never out. He has meant too much to the Dodgers and baseball.

The likely scenario is an advisory and ambassadorial position.

Claire refused to feed the speculation, to talk about hypotheticals.

But certainly this is an opportunity to deal with the annual Lasorda evaluation gracefully, with honor--the decision to make a managerial change based on physical considerations rather than managerial performance.

Lasorda might fight it--he said in the spring that retirement isn’t in his plans and his family restated it in the aftermath of his heart attack--but how do the Dodgers take a chance?

He will be 69 in September, burdened with a damaged heart, an ulcer and two arthritic knees for which he takes anti-inflammatory medicine and on which corrective surgery is scheduled after the season.

“I’m very optimistic that he’s going to have a full recovery,” cardiologist Anthony Reid said. “What he did before the angioplasty, he can do again.”

That’s encouraging, but the intense stress of managing a major league baseball team, a team often characterized as underachieving, the demands of travel, the dietary problems, are reflected in the current hospitalization.

Lasorda will be that much older in 1997, maybe that much more vulnerable.

A cautious Peter O’Malley, the Dodger owner, is unlikely to run the risk for his manager or the team, even with medical clearance.

The Dodgers can be expected to stage a civic salute for Lasorda, then direct him to the elevators for the move upstairs.

Who would replace him? Who will replace him?

It’s a puzzle. If O’Malley and Claire had been sold on a successor, a change might have been made already.

The list of candidates is believed to be headed by longtime coach and now interim Manager Bill Russell, Albuquerque Manager Phil Regan, former catcher and now roving instructor Mike Scioscia and batting instructor Reggie Smith.

There could be others--Bobby Valentine and Davey Lopes, among them--but it would be a surprise if the next Dodger manager isn’t one of the big four.

Russell, 47, was once the odds-on favorite--a Dodger lifer who had given up major league coaching comforts to gain two years of managerial experience at Albuquerque. He was perceived as a quiet, respected leader of the Walter Alston type and who made or influenced many strategic decisions as Lasorda’s top bench lieutenant.

All of that may still work in Russell’s favor. Certainly his assignment as interim manager is a built-in advantage if the team responds and he ultimately draws the vocal support of players such as Eric Karros and Mike Piazza.

However, Lasorda has stayed so long, and Russell is so closely allied to him, that some in the organization consider him to be “Tommy’s guy” and question the strength of his rapport with Claire, who is perceived to be more closely allied with Regan. If Claire makes the call on a successor and chooses to bring in his own manager, Regan might be considered “Fred’s guy.”

It is also not clear if Russell’s recent divorce troubled a conservative organization and if, perhaps, he has turned off some in the front office by coming on a bit too fast and too strong about what this interim position might mean to his future while Lasorda is still hospitalized.

Claire has said he recognizes what the opportunity means to Russell and that he will be judged as everyone in the organization--himself included--is judged on an ongoing basis. As to whose guy is whose guy, Claire said:

“There isn’t any foundation for that. I’ve known Billy for 30 years and we have a strong relationship.

“I can’t change perceptions, but I know what my relationships are with the people in the organization, and I’m not quite sure where [the perception that his relationship with Russell isn’t as strong as it is with Regan] stems from and I don’t worry about it.

“I have a good relationship with Billy, Phil and all of the coaches.”

Regan, 59, was the Dodgers’ special assignment and advance scout for seven seasons, starting in 1987, hired by Claire.

He helped develop some of the club’s farm products during 10 seasons as a winter league manager in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.

When his major league managerial debut ended after one season with the Baltimore Orioles last winter, Regan was quickly rehired by Claire to pilot Albuquerque, prompting the dismissal of Rick Dempsey.

Regan said in the spring that “if I’m in the position and being in the organization, I just hope I’m considered” whenever Lasorda retires but “I [took the Albuquerque job] because I still love managing. I couldn’t dedicate 10 years of my life to give it up after one year.”

But if Regan is thought to be Claire’s man, the hot ticket in the organization is Scioscia, everyone’s man.

Scioscia, 37, turned down the Albuquerque job last winter because he didn’t think he was ready, but he is tentatively expected to manage the Dodgers’ instructional league team in Arizona next winter and, perhaps, accept a Dominican assignment after that. Could he step in to manage the Dodgers in ‘97? Would Regan, a good company man, agree to manage the club for a couple years while Scioscia is serving a minor league apprenticeship, then move into a front-office position?

The answers aren’t clear, but this much is: Scioscia’s star continues to rise.

Smith, 51, has been a dedicated batting instructor and strong presence in the clubhouse but has never made managing a goal and has no managerial experience.

“It’s something I feel I can do if called upon to do it, but I have not prepared myself to be a manager, per se,” he said. “My focus is to be a teacher and batting coach, but never say never.”

Terry Collins and Kevin Kennedy did. Now managing Houston and Boston, respectively, they were considered to be potential heirs to Lasorda while managing Albuquerque but opted for other opportunities when it appeared that Lasorda’s tenure would go on indefinitely.

It still might, of course. Angioplasty might have given Lasorda a new life in more ways than one, but the suspicion is that the Dodgers will use this opportunity to make a change next season or even earlier depending on the medical reports of the next week or two. That would provide someone with the unenviable task of succeeding a manager who has had his critics but whose personality has served as a passport for the Dodgers and baseball around the world.

“We’re taking this in short stages,” Claire said of Lasorda’s recovery. “Our concerns are twofold. What’s best for Tommy and what’s best for the team. We’ve made no commitment to anyone and won’t. We have a season to play, more than enough to think about, without getting into next year.”

True enough, but the Dodgers will now find it hard to escape 1997 through the remainder of 1996.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Line Forms Here A look at the candidates to replace Dodger Manager Tommy Lasorda when he retires, with current position and managerial experience: *--*

Candidate Age Current Status Experience Bill Russell 47 Dodger bench coach 2 years at Albuquerque Reggie Smith 51 Dodger batting coach None Mike Scioscia 37 Roving minor league instructor None Phil Regan 59 Manager at Albuquerque 1 year at Baltimore* Bobby Valentine 46 Manager at triple-A Norfolk (Mets) 8 years at Texas Davey Lopes 50 Padres first base coach None

*--*

* Also 10 years in winter leagues