HAS THE WELL RUN DRY? : Dolan Might Strike Gold, but U.S. Swimming Might Not

Tom Dolan is riding around in a cab near Central Park and sees a pond, turns to his greatest rival and shrugs, saying: “Let’s do it.” They jump in the water and start racing as throngs of New Yorkers watch, cheering and taking sides.

Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi, redux?

Not quite. It’s a commercial that will never get made because Dolan’s greatest rival and polar opposite is not American. He is Jani Sievinen from Finland.

Dolan, on the eve of the Olympics, virtually stands alone on the U.S. men’s swimming team, figuratively and commercially. As the world-record holder in the 400-meter individual medley, he is considered the only heavy favorite for an individual gold medal among the men. (Jeff Rouse, the world-record holder in the 100 backstroke, is a slight favorite but finished second in the U.S. trials).

Nike has alertly signed the telegenic Dolan, hoping he would follow in the flip-flops of Mark Spitz, Matt Biondi, Tom Jager and Janet Evans.

A breakthrough performance by Dolan could prevent what is usually a red, white and blue celebration on the pool deck from simply being blue. American dominance is a thing of the past, and if you haven’t realized that, officials from U.S. Swimming have reiterated the point by issuing dire predictions after the trials in March: no gold medals for the women, four for the men.

This burst of swimming glasnost cuts both ways. Should a weak performance occur in Atlanta, well, it was predicted months ago. And if the low threshold of expectations is surpassed even slightly, the meet can easily be considered a success.

The need to downsize aspirations didn’t happen overnight. On the men’s side, the fall has been much harder because of the sheer dominance of the past. In 1976, the U.S. women won one gold medal--in a relay. But the men won 12 of 13 events, and took the silver and the bronze in the 200 breaststroke, which was won by David Wilkie of Great Britain, the single non-American victor.

Eight years later, the U.S. men won nine gold medals and American swimmers combined for 21 golds, buoyed by the East Bloc boycott. But by 1992, there were subtle signs of slippage when the men took six gold medals: four individual and two relays.

The real splash of cold water in the face came at Indianapolis in mid-March at the U.S. trials. For the first time since 1920, no world record or American records were set at the meet. Four years ago, three world and eight U.S. records were broken in the same pool.

Not only did a handful of vaunted names from the past--Summer Sanders, Anita Nall, Melvin Stewart and Jager--fail to make the squad, 20 of the 26 individual winners at the trials had slower times than the winning trials times in 1992.

Nall had placed second at the 1992 Games in the 100 breaststroke (1 minute 8.17 seconds, an American record) and third in the 200 breaststroke (2:26.88). At the trials in Indianapolis, she finished fourth in the 100 breaststroke in 1:10.66 and fourth in the 200 breaststroke in 2:30.77.

Sanders didn’t come as close in the 200 butterfly. Her winning time in Barcelona was 2:08.67, and at Indianapolis, she finished eighth in 2:15.32.

Jager finished seventh in the 50 freestyle, and Stewart took fifth in the 100 butterfly and narrowly missed making the squad in the 200 butterfly, finishing third.

Their individual problems were reflective of the collective malaise at the trials. Since then, the results of the U.S. trials have been analyzed thoroughly. What exactly ails U.S. swimming has become a popular topic, along with the attendant societal and international implications.

But the expected route to mediocrity has been thrown off because the American coaches started spotting the times at trials in other countries, downloading information from China, Australia and Germany into their computers.

“Looking at the results from trials around the world, there really haven’t been that many outstanding performances,” said USC Coach Mark Schubert, an assistant with the U.S. women’s team.

“It seems like everyone is gearing for Atlanta. It’ll be interesting to see how the momentum goes. The main thing for the American team is if we can be real good the first few days. Then I think we’ll be real good the whole meet. The first day has a lot to do with the tone.

“In Barcelona, we were kind of surprised. There were some upsets the first day. Though we swam well, we didn’t have the results we expected. The coaching staff had their work cut out for them to get the team back up again. There’s nothing like getting the snowball going in your direction, particularly when you are swimming at home.”

Having the Olympics at home can be a bonus, as was evidenced in Barcelona. Spain did much better than expected in many events, and King Juan Carlos seemed to be on hand for every gold medal ceremony.

Men’s assistant swimming coach Eddie Reese also believes good old American stubbornness will help shave times in the face of adversity.

“Most of our success occurs because we overcome things,” Reese said. “All you have to do is throw up a barrier and we’ll find a way.”

How did this barrier get so high, anyway?

Theories abound: the emphatic emergence of the Chinese, the re-emergence of the Australians, the disappearance of larger-than-life stars.

Some blame the influx of foreign swimmers heading to the United States for college. There is the dizzying array of sporting choices for American youngsters--after all, it seems like there are more boys training for the street luge at the X Games than the 1,500-meter freestyle at the Olympic Games.

One collegiate coach, Frank Busch of Arizona, believes that a fundamental shift in this country explains the change in swimming’s world order.

“In society, things have changed--both parents work now,” Busch said. “Not too many moms and dads want to get up two, three hours before they [have to] get up and take their kids to morning practice. Nor do they want to sit for three days at a meet.

“I think U.S. Swimming sometimes takes the idea that they’re going to change society. The work ethic is not there, so they have to instill it in kids. U.S. Swimming is not a parent. We need to sell our sport to anything, any kind of water activities. We need to have people in short pools, long pools, water polo. We need to get people in it, and we don’t do a very good job.

“Once you get them in the pool maybe the kids will find out, ‘Maybe I’m not as fast as Johnny, but maybe I can last longer, therefore I can gravitate toward the distances.’ Bringing the sprints in is a good thing because it’s kept people in the sport. Otherwise we’d be in serious trouble.”

Very few American swimmers have been able to do well financially. Evans is really the only female swimmer from the United States to capitalize commercially.

The inability to make a living from swimming alone has driven some from the sport, according to Michigan Coach Jon Urbanchek.

“The reason a lot of the swimmers quit is because there is no money in swimming,” said Urbanchek, an assistant with the U.S. men’s team. “You can’t afford to keep swimming. You don’t feel like always leetching off your parents. It’s kind of embarrassing to live at home and use your dad’s credit card your whole life.”

Dolan, 20, is hoping to avoid that after skipping his final year of college eligibility at Michigan.

“It was the perfect time for me to move on,” he said. “If I can get the recognition of the sport out more myself, then that is going to better everyone in the sport. Matt [Biondi] and Tom [Jager] have done a great job of publicizing themselves and the sport. Hopefully I can do the same within my own generation.”

The man considered the best hope for American swimming does not worry about the immense Olympic pressure sweeping him off his feet. Not only is Dolan projected to win the 400 IM in Atlanta, he could bring home gold medals in the 200 IM and 400 freestyle.

“He can deal with pressure,” Urbanchek said. “He’s a pressure swimmer. The bigger the pressure, the bigger the swim. If the pressure was applied to someone else who was not that strong, they might crack. If anyone can deal with it, Tom can.”

Swimming pressure seems minor for someone who has constantly fought exercise-induced asthma, which has caused him to pass out in the pool. What are heavy expectations for a swimmer who has had chronic fatigue, a strained lower back and an abscess in his tonsils in the first five months of 1996?

The second half of the year has been more promising.

“Tom discovered something new this summer,” Urbanchek said. “He said, ‘Look Jon, I have hair on my chest.’ He’s never had the hair on his chest. He’s been hairless all his life. I said, ‘Maybe testosterone is kicking in, finally.’ He’s becoming a man.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

GOING DOWN

The once-dominant American swimmers may be simply treading water in the Atlanta Games, with U.S. Swimming officials making this dire prediction: four gold medals for the men and none for the women. Here’s the breakdown of medals won by U.S. swimmers the last three Olympics:

MEN

1992

*--*

Event G S B T 50 freestyle 0 1 1 2 100 freestyle 0 0 0 0 200 freestyle 0 0 0 0 400 freestyle 0 0 0 0 1,500 freestyle 0 0 0 0 100 backstroke 0 1 1 2 200 backstroke 0 0 0 0 100 breaststroke 1 0 0 1 200 breaststroke 1 0 0 1 100 butterfly 1 0 0 1 200 butterfly 1 0 0 1 200 individual medley 0 1 0 1 400 individual medley 0 1 0 1 100 freestyle relay 1 0 0 1 200 freestyle relay 0 0 1 1 100 medley relay 1 0 0 1 TOTAL 6 4 3 13

*--*

1988

*--*

Event G S B T 50 freestyle 1 1 0 2 100 freestyle 1 1 0 2 200 freestyle 0 0 1 1 400 freestyle 0 0 0 0 1,500 freestyle 0 0 0 0 100 backstroke 0 0 0 0 200 backstroke 0 0 0 0 100 breaststroke 0 0 0 0 200 breaststroke 0 0 0 0 100 butterfly 0 1 0 1 200 butterfly 0 0 0 0 200 individual medley 0 0 0 0 400 individual medley 0 1 0 1 100 freestyle relay 1 0 0 1 200 freestyle relay 1 0 0 1 100 medley relay 1 0 0 1 TOTAL 5 4 1 10

*--*

1984

*--*

Event G S B T 50 freestyle Not Held 100 freestyle 1 0 0 1 200 freestyle 0 1 0 1 400 freestyle 1 1 0 2 1,500 freestyle 1 1 0 2 100 backstroke 1 1 0 2 200 backstroke 1 0 0 1 100 breaststroke 1 0 0 1 200 breaststroke 0 0 0 0 100 butterfly 0 1 0 1 200 butterfly 0 0 0 0 200 individual medley 0 1 0 1 400 individual medley 0 1 0 1 100 freestyle relay 1 0 0 1 200 freestyle relay 1 0 0 1 100 medley relay 1 0 0 1 TOTAL 9 7 0 16

*--*

WOMEN

1992

*--*

Event G S B T 50 freestyle 0 0 1 1 100 freestyle 0 1 0 1 200 freestyle 1 0 0 1 400 freestyle 0 1 0 1 800 freestyle 1 0 0 1 100 backstroke 0 0 1 1 200 backstroke 0 0 0 0 100 breaststroke 0 1 0 1 200 breaststroke 0 0 1 1 100 butterfly 0 1 0 1 200 butterfly 1 0 0 1 200 individual medley 0 1 0 1 400 individual medley 0 0 1 1 100 freestyle relay 1 0 0 1 200 freestyle relay Not Held 100 medley relay 1 0 0 1 TOTAL 5 5 4 14

*--*

1988

*--*

Event G S B T 50 freestyle 0 0 1 1 100 freestyle 0 0 0 0 200 freestyle 0 0 0 0 400 freestyle 1 0 0 1 800 freestyle 1 0 0 1 100 backstroke 0 0 0 0 200 backstroke 0 0 0 0 100 breaststroke 0 0 0 0 200 breaststroke 0 0 0 0 100 butterfly 0 0 0 0 200 butterfly 0 0 1 1 200 individual medley 0 0 0 0 400 individual medley 1 0 0 1 100 freestyle relay 0 0 1 1 200 freestyle relay Not Held 100 medley relay 0 1 0 1 TOTAL 3 1 3 7

*--*

1984

*--*

Event G S B T 50 freestyle Not Held 100 freestyle 1 1 0 2 200 freestyle 1 1 0 2 400 freestyle 1 0 0 1 800 freestyle 1 1 0 2 100 backstroke 1 1 0 2 200 backstroke 0 1 0 1 100 breaststroke 0 0 0 0 200 breaststroke 0 1 0 1 100 butterfly 1 1 0 2 200 butterfly 1 0 0 1 200 individual medley 1 1 0 2 400 individual medley 1 0 0 1 100 freestyle relay 1 0 0 1 200 freestyle relay Not Held 100 medley relay 1 0 0 1 TOTAL 11 8 0 19

*--*