Clinton’s Lead Over Dole Widens in State to 27 Points

In spite of Whitewater developments and the furor over FBI files, President Clinton has widened his lead over Republican challenger Bob Dole to landslide proportions in California since the March primary election, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Dole has vowed to battle Clinton to the end for California’s critical 54 electoral votes, but nothing Dole has done appears to have helped him in the Golden State--not his dramatic resignation from the U.S. Senate so he could campaign full time, his four recent trips to California or his contention that Clinton has “waged war on California.”

Three weeks before the opening of the Republican National Convention in San Diego, Clinton leads Dole by 27 points, 61% to 34%, among registered voters. That is a six-point increase over the 58%-37% lead Clinton enjoyed just before the March 26 primary, in which Dole clinched enough delegate votes to win the GOP presidential nomination.

Democrats also seemed to be leading in the races for Congress in California. Asked whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district, voters favored the Democrats by an 11-point margin--51% to 40%. That margin, unchanged from March, indicates that Democrats may pick up some seats now held by Republicans.

Dole’s support in California has steadily declined since an earlier poll taken in March 1995, when he was slightly ahead, even though Californians consider Dole more honest than Clinton and more likely to stick to his convictions, said Susan Pinkus, acting director of the Los Angeles Times Poll.

Only about one-third of the respondents thought Clinton was more honest than Dole. But that sentiment does not seem to translate into potential votes for Dole or detract from Clinton’s support.

Among all California voters polled, Clinton’s job approval rating held steady at 55% favorable and 40% unfavorable.

“So far, Dole has not made a case for himself,” Pinkus said.

Although Dole is holding onto support from conservative Republicans, he is suffering major defections from other segments of his GOP base. More than one-fourth of the registered Republicans contacted in the survey said they are now inclined to vote for Clinton.

“And what is more startling is the fact that 34% of Republican women [22% in March] would vote for Clinton, and Clinton edges Dole for the moderate-liberal GOP vote 46%-44%,” Pinkus said.

Clinton also made major gains among independent voters in the last several months. In the new survey, independents split in Clinton’s favor by more than 2 to 1.

The prospect of another run for the presidency by Texas billionaire Ross Perot appears to pose more of a potential liability for Clinton than for Dole. In a three-way race with Perot running as the Reform Party candidate, Clinton leads with 50%, compared with 30% for Dole and 17% for Perot. Perot costs Clinton 11% of his support and Dole 4%.

At this point, Perot would not be a factor in the outcome because Clinton’s lead is so strong. That could change in a tightening contest, however. The other Reform Party contender, former Colorado Gov. Richard D. Lamm, pulled 7% in a hypothetical matchup with Clinton (56%) and Dole (31%).

The Times poll surveyed 1,570 California adults, including 1,267 registered voters, by telephone during the period July 13-16. For both samples, the survey had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The poll comes about midway between the March primary and the November general election. The battle between Clinton and Dole was joined earlier than usual in presidential contests because of the advanced date of the primary. For most of this century, the California primary was held in June.

“However,” said Pinkus, “let’s remember that this is July and, in political time, that is a long way from the Nov. 5 election.”

Dole’s image has suffered something of a turnabout since the last Times poll. In March, a strong majority of respondents had a favorable impression of Dole. Now, Dole is viewed in an unfavorable light by a narrow majority.

Nor does Clinton’s standing with voters appear to have been hurt by the Whitewater trials in Arkansas, the Whitewater hearings in Congress or the controversy involving the acquisition of more than 400 FBI files by White House aides. Asked whether Clinton’s conduct on the issues would affect their vote, 30% said it would make them less likely to vote for Clinton (32% among independents). Sixty-three percent said the controversies would make no difference in how they vote.

“These character issues really are not affecting Clinton at this point,” Pinkus said.

The flap over Dole’s comments about whether tobacco is addictive has hurt him more than Whitewater and other issues have harmed Clinton, especially with independent voters.

Asked whether Dole’s tobacco stands would affect their vote, 42% said it would make them less likely to vote for him; among independents, the number goes up to 50%. Fifty-five percent said it would make no difference.

And 93% said they believe that tobacco is addictive. Only 4% said they did not think so, and 3% were not sure. Also, a majority agreed with Clinton that the federal Food and Drug Administration should regulate tobacco advertising aimed at young people.

But the major force driving the election campaign in California at this point is the economy, the poll found, and California voters seem generally pleased with Clinton’s record on jobs and the economy--especially female voters, who tend to be more jittery about the future of the economy.

Among all voters, 57% believe that Clinton’s policies have benefited the American economy, and 31% said the economy is worse off because of him. More than half of the Republicans who described themselves as moderate to liberal support the Clinton policies.

When asked to list the most decisive issues of the forthcoming campaign, jobs came in first, mentioned by 29% of the registered voters. Next came abortion at 14%, and welfare and immigration at 11% each.

Issues such as the budget deficit, taxes, crime and Medicare all came in under 10%. National security and defense were barely mentioned.

So far, Dole’s attempt to shed his Senate insider image and sound more attuned to everyday concerns does not seem to be registering. By more than 2 to 1, the Californians surveyed said Clinton better understands the problems of the average American than Dole does.

Californians appear to reject Dole’s contention that the Clinton presidency has been bad for the state. A majority of those polled say Clinton would better serve California interests than Dole.

And Dole is suffering from a major gender gap in California: Clinton’s margin among women is 66% to 26%, compared to men at 54% to 43%.

The fact that Republicans continue to quarrel among themselves on the abortion issue during the pre-convention period may be helping Clinton.

By 61% to 28%, Californians said they support Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision allowing women the right to choose to have an abortion in most cases. And Republican women are more in line with Gov. Pete Wilson than with Dole on the issue. Wilson favors abortion rights, while Dole favors a constitutional amendment to ban most abortions.

More than half the Republican women polled favor Roe vs. Wade, and within that group, 44% said they would vote for Clinton and 51% for Dole. Republican men who favor abortion back Dole by 70% to 24%.

Republicans believe they will be helped by the fact that Dole’s formal nomination will take place in the state, at the GOP National Convention in San Diego on Aug. 12-15. And typically, a candidate enjoys a spurt in poll numbers in the wake of the convention.

“Dole will get a bounce from the convention,” Pinkus said. “But he needs a high bounce.”

Likewise, Clinton is expected to get a boost out of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago two weeks later.

“Dole will have to come out fast and hard in order to catch up, and he will have to make a very strong case as to why he should become president of the United States,” Pinkus said.

Presidential contests generally narrow in the polls as the election approaches and increasing numbers of voters pay attention to the campaign. And oftentimes, voters are drawn back to the party fold by candidate appeals to their loyalties.

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Poll Findings

Although California voters give Bob Dole high marks for personal integrity, they think President Clinton better understands and responds to their problems.

If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Clinton: 61%

Dole: 34%

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Who do you think stands up for his convictions more?

Clinton: 38%

Dole: 45%

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Who do you think has more honesty and integrity?

Clinton: 32%

Dole: 45%

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Who do you think better understands the problems of average Americans?

Clinton: 58%

Dole: 26%

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Who would serve California better?

Clinton: 52%

Dole: 34%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,570 California adults, including 1,267 registered voters, by telephone July 13 through July 16. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and party identification. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for all adults and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.