Dole Campaign Ready to Roll, Aides Proclaim

After stumbling battered and penniless through the spring and early summer, Bob Dole enters August ready to make a serious run at the presidency.

Or so says his campaign brain trust.

Acknowledging that the campaign up to now has lacked focus and at times has verged on the incoherent, top Dole aides now say that they have in place a blueprint to carry the former senator within striking distance of President Clinton, who now holds a double-digit lead in all national surveys.

As part of that plan, Dole aides say that after Labor Day they may have to reassess their commitment to seriously contest the election in California, although for now they insist the commitment holds.

The Dole plan, like all political and military plans, is based on a number of hopeful assumptions and may not survive contact with the enemy.

The first assumption is that the real campaign only begins Monday, with the unveiling by Dole of an economic program centered on a large tax cut, which is aimed at addressing the concerns of millions of workers whose boats have not risen with the economic tide.

Clinton aides, by contrast, believe voters began making up their minds months ago.

Once the economic plan is announced, the next big move will come Aug. 10, when Dole is scheduled to announce his vice presidential choice at a flag-draped rally in his hometown of Russell, Kan.

And then comes the GOP convention in San Diego, which aides hope will introduce the “real” Bob Dole to America and present a picture of party unity and confidence.

The choice of a running mate presents potential problems. If Dole seeks to widen the appeal of the ticket to women and social moderates by selecting a vice presidential nominee who supports abortion rights, he risks mutiny at San Diego from the large and ardent antiabortion wing of his party.

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One leading conservative social activist said this week that antiabortion forces have made clear to the Dole campaign that if a supporter of abortion rights is picked as Dole’s running mate, they would seek to nominate an antiabortion alternative from the convention floor.

Although social conservatives are unlikely to prevail, the spectacle of a raucous abortion fight could seriously mar the convention and throw Dole off stride just when he needs momentum.

Paul Manafort, Dole’s convention manager, confirmed that he has received the threat but said he has no doubt Dole can carry the vote for his running mate.

Manafort said, however, “it’s not exactly the way we would want to spend Thursday afternoon” before Dole mounts the podium to accept his party’s presidential nomination.

Several top Dole strategists indicated that he has not yet narrowed the fairly long list of potential running mates and may look for a new name to make a splash.

One possible choice not yet on the list who could become a last-minute contender is the combative and articulate former secretary of education, William J. Bennett.

Bennett, who has spent many hours with Dole in the past several weeks and who helped craft his anti-Hollywood speeches, has two strong advantages over other possible choices: He is a forceful spokesman on the collapse of values in modern America and a media-savvy Washingtonian with extensive experience on the speaking and talk-show circuits.

In addition to the running mate and the convention, Dole aides are counting on a big boost from the instant infusion of $74 million in public campaign funds that he will receive after the convention, allowing him to carry his message to the battleground states this fall.

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“The biggest difference between the spring and the fall is that we’ll have money again. We’ve been running on empty for some time,” said chief campaign spokesman Nelson Warfield. “Now we’ll finally be able to confront Clinton with the question of how he squares his liberal record with his moderate rhetoric.”

Of course, the latest launch of the Dole campaign marks at least the third time the Kansan has sought to begin anew. Dole declared the general election campaign begun after he clinched the Republican nomination at the end of March and again when he left the Senate in June to seek the presidency as “just a man.”

Numerous pitfalls lie ahead, not the least of which is the formidable campaign skill of his opponent, the president of the United States.

White House aides and Clinton campaign operatives are already stockpiling ammunition to attack the Dole economic proposal as a boon to the rich and a threat to popular middle-class programs such as Medicare.

Along with a pro-growth message on the economy, the nation’s frayed moral fiber will be a foundation of Dole’s campaign message.

Dole advisors hope to tap doubts about the state of America’s values through speeches like the recent address in which he exhorted the entertainment industry to dispense more wholesome movies.

But mostly, said one senior campaign official, Dole intends to focus this side of the campaign on four issues: rising drug use among teenagers, spreading juvenile crime, illegal immigration and abuses of affirmative action.

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The senior advisor said that the intention is to link the “moral breakdown in this country” with “the culture in the Clinton administration”: ethics investigations of the Clintons and several appointees, the reports of past drug use by White House employees and the controversy surrounding the improper acquisitions of hundreds of FBI background files on former Republican officials.

The hope here is to exploit gnawing public doubts about the Clintons’ personal probity and convert the large percentage of Americans who express belief that the country is headed down the wrong track.

Unfortunately for Dole, Clinton’s own job approval rating remains above 50% in most polls. Presidents with comparably high approval ratings--Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984--all cruised to easy reelection victories.

Conscious of the need to dent Clinton’s standing, Dole aides said they hope to focus voters’ attention back on the tumultuous first half of Clinton’s presidency.

“Our argument will be, ‘Remember the first two years of the Clinton administration,’ ” said Dole campaign manager Scott Reed. “What would a second term look like if he is not constrained by needing to win reelection?”

To win, aides say, Dole hopes to consolidate the Southern and mountain West states that provided the backbone of the GOP presidential coalition from 1968 through 1988; toward that end, one senior official said that whoever is chosen as vice president is scheduled to spend much of August in the South.

Aides hope to focus much of the campaign’s time and money on the five Northeastern and Midwestern states that often decide presidential elections: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio. From Dole’s perspective, those states need plenty of attention: In all but Ohio, recent polls show him trailing Clinton by about 15 percentage points or more.

At the same time, polls have shown Clinton running surprisingly well in Republican “base” states like Florida--so well that some GOP strategists are grumbling that Dole may be dangerously slighting them in his efforts to establish a beachhead in the Midwest and California.

Such are the difficult choices facing a candidate who has much ground to cover--and precious few weeks before November.

Times staff writer Robert Shogan contributed to this story.