How Will Baton Be Passed? Indonesia Asks

At 8 p.m. on Oct. 1, 1965, a speech by a relatively obscure army officer aired on Indonesian state radio: The night before, Maj. Gen. Suharto announced, there had been an attempted Communist coup.

Then-President Sukarno made no real effort to crack down on the Communists, who were a key prop to his power. But mobs did: An orgy of violence broke out across the nation, targeting suspected Communists and sympathizers and also ethnic Chinese. An estimated 300,000 people died.

Soon the Communists were crushed, and the next year Sukarno, a broken man, handed the presidency to Suharto.

Now 75, Suharto is widely expected to seek yet another five-year term in 1998 if his health remains satisfactory.

But suddenly a wild card has emerged: In the past two months, Megawati Sukarnoputri, 49, Sukarno’s eldest daughter, has spearheaded an opposition movement that threatens to unravel Suharto’s carefully constructed political system of authoritarian control hidden behind a veneer of democracy.

The levers of power remain firmly in the hands of Suharto and the military men around him, so few observers expect any kind of quick “people’s power” victory in this nation of 204 million, the fourth most populous in the world.

But with the events of recent weeks--including a ham-handed crackdown on Megawati supporters that led to major rioting in late July--the already sensitive transition to a post-Suharto era has assumed new importance.

Unless events slip totally out of control--a prospect viewed by all sides as unlikely--no one questions that Suharto has the power to install a successor of his own choosing.

Whether Indonesia is now headed toward a cycle of political instability, popular protest and military crackdown, or whether it can make a relatively smooth transition toward genuine democracy, may depend on the wisdom of his choice.

In any case, the forces now gathered around Megawati are likely to push hard for faster change, challenging the government if its decisions seem too far out of line with popular aspirations.

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The profound impact made in other countries by the daughters of former national leaders, such as democracy advocate Aung San Suu Kyi of Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, and Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, adds to the credibility of Megawati’s challenge.

“I think the people can see that we are struggling for what they want: education, dignity, social justice, their rights to have freedom,” Megawati said in an interview.

In his 30 years as president, Suharto has proven himself a master tactician, balancing supporters against each other, defusing opposition through a mix of suppression and consultation, and never grooming any successors who might challenge him for power.

The succession issue has erupted now partly because of the unexpected death in April of his wife, Siti Hartinah Suharto, who also was the president’s closest political confidant.

Suharto seemed shaken. People were reminded of his own mortality and for some weeks questioned his will to carry on as president.

Then in early July, he suddenly flew to Germany for a health checkup.

Doctors reportedly gave him a clean bill of health. But Suharto suffers from heart and kidney problems, and his health remains a question.

Constitutional procedures for the succession are clear.

The president and vice president are elected every five years by the People’s Consultative Assembly, with the next election set for 1998. If the president dies or steps down, the vice president takes office.

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Highly restricted parliamentary elections, to be held next spring, partly determine the makeup of the 1,000-seat consultative assembly, which includes all 500 members of the People’s Representation Council. The remaining seats are filled in equally controlled ways.

Although the constitution provides that the People’s Consultative Assembly can vote for competing candidates for president, the process is so controlled that Suharto has been elected unopposed six times since 1968.

Megawati, as chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party, one of three parties included in these electoral processes, had shown signs over the past two years of turning her party into a genuine opposition force.

This prompted the government to engineer her ouster by a rival faction at a special June congress.

That in turn escalated into the confrontation that erupted in anti-government rioting in late July.

Her stature with the public now appears to have risen dramatically as the result of her firm stand against the government’s attacks.

But hardly anyone sees Megawati as an immediate threat to Suharto.

The president still has two basic choices: He can pick a successor to run in 1998 with a virtual guarantee that person will win, or he can have himself reelected and choose an heir apparent as vice president. Until now, he has switched vice presidents every five years, with none seen as an anointed successor.

Suharto hasn’t tipped his hand.

“The most important thing for me is to complete my term until 1998,” he said recently. “But you should know that I’ll be 77 then, and that is old.”

One attractive option for Suharto, many analysts believe, is to start yet another term as president, then step down after a year or two to hand power to his successor.

Suharto’s achievements have been great enough that most observers believe he wants to protect them through a smooth transfer of power to someone he trusts.

He has presided over growth that has boosted per-capita economic output to nearly $1,000 per person, from about $50. He has strengthened the nation’s unity, maintained social stability and seen at least some benefits of economic growth reach almost everyone.

In a nation that is 85% Muslim and has 300 ethnic groups scattered on 6,000 islands (with an additional 11,000 uninhabited islands), people of different religions and backgrounds have largely lived together in peace.

But huge gaps have opened between rich and poor, his own six grown children have become wealthy partly through government favoritism toward their business ventures, and the middle class he helped create now wants its political voice to be heard.

Regardless of whether Suharto installs a successor in 1998 or runs again himself and names an heir apparent, analysts see three categories for his choice:

* A powerful army general. Contenders could be Vice President Try Sutrisno, army Chief of Staff Hartono, Defense Minister Edi Sudradjat or armed forces commander Feisal Tanjung.

* One of his children or a son-in-law. Possible contenders are Suharto’s daughter, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, 47, known as Tutut, vice chairwoman of the ruling Golkar Party; son Bambang Trihatmodjo, 42, a wealthy businessman; and Suharto son-in-law special forces commander Prabowo Soemitro Subianto, who is in his early 40s.

* A top government official. Two possibilities would be Minister of State for Research and Technology B.J. Habibie and Development Planning Board Chairman Ginandjar Kartasasmita.

Most observers believe that Suharto will pick one of the generals. One interesting scenario is that he picks a general as vice president, then steps down around the year 2000 with the condition that Tutut, Bambang or Prabowo becomes the new vice president.

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“Besides someone who is competent and can hold the country together, Suharto needs to find someone who will protect his family’s interests, and that’s a big problem for him,” said a Western analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity. “There’s a lot of resentment at all levels against his family’s activities. I’d say every major project in Indonesia has a family member somewhere in the background. . . . For the most part, they’ve reinvested their money in Indonesia.”

Some fear that Suharto might hand his office directly to one of his children or his son-in-law, which could be a formula for instability.

“You just can’t rule it out,” the analyst said. “I think it’s fair to say his children are his only blind spot.”

Tutut, the leading contender among the children, “hasn’t demonstrated she has the qualities to hold the country together,” the analyst said.

Prabowo “is super-bright [and] hasn’t made any missteps,” she said. “But it’s probably too early for him to be a serious contender for either the presidency or the vice presidency. And he’s engendered a lot of jealousy because he’s risen so quickly.”

Habibie, the research and technology minister, “is very bright, very articulate, a visionary, but doesn’t have the kind of pragmatism necessary to lead a country,” the analyst added.

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Megawati, for her part, refuses to discuss any possible bid for the presidency, and says she wants Suharto to choose a highly qualified successor “because we need a very good transition.”

The pro-democracy movement centered on Megawati does not talk of 1998 as a target date for taking power.

Activists seem to believe that it is only in the following election, in the year 2003--when Suharto may be out of the picture and the political system may be more open--that there is any real hope of pushing the army out of the driver’s seat.

While that may seem a long way off, the struggle has now begun.

Megawati “enjoys the support of the people, yes, but not to the extent that they want her to become president,” said Abdul Rahman Wahid, head of Nahdlatul Ulama, the country’s largest Muslim organization, which claims 40 million supporters. “She realizes there should be another general, and she is patient enough to wait for 2003. That will be the time for a civilian president. I think in that year, we will be able to provide the support needed. But not in 1998.”