The Rashomon of Speeches May Doom GOP

Everyone knows that when Patrick J. Buchanan spoke at the Republican National Convention in 1992, he declared a cultural war in his prime time speech and in so doing, ruined George Bush’s chances of victory. A review of press reports of the Houston convention does not bear out either of these claims, however. Still, they have become deeply embedded in the conventional wisdom. The potential repercussions for the GOP are serious.

The Times’ Robert Shogan reported from Houston that “if Bush does lose in November, some members of the GOP leadership, remembering the outspoken conservative’s attacks on Bush during the contest for the nomination, will put part of the blame for defeat on Buchanan.” This prediction proved accurate, although the finger-pointing was directed at Buchanan’s speech, not at his primary challenge to Bush. After Bill Clinton won, Bush aides told anyone who would listen that Buchanan’s speech was responsible.

The press picked up the story and ran with it until it took on a life and “truth” of its own. Since then, the course of events at Houston has been distorted completely. And there is no evidence, in the reporting of the Houston convention or its aftermath, that Buchanan’s speech hurt Bush.

In their post-convention wrap-ups, the Los Angeles Times, the New York Times and the Washington Post overwhelmingly concentrated on Bush’s 14-point surge in the polls: “Bush Rebounds,” “Bush Pulls Close in Polls,” “Convention Softens Doubts About Bush,” “Bush Roars Back into Fight.” Jack Nelson of the Los Angeles Times wrote that Gov. William Weld of Massachusetts “struck the first conspicuously discordant note of the convention by breaking with Bush’s position” on abortion. Buchanan had spoken 24 hours before Weld.

In fact, surprisingly little attention was paid to Buchanan’s speech. He did not “declare” a cultural war but said we were in one--a big difference. His actual words were: “There is a religious war going on in our country for the soul of America. It is a cultural war, as critical to the kind of nation we will one day be as was the Cold War itself. And in that struggle for the soul of America, Clinton & Clinton are on the other side, and George Bush is on our side.”

In searching through the microfilm, I have not found this directly quoted anywhere. Richard L. Berke wrote the New York Times article on Buchanan’s speech without any reference to it. This past June, however, Berke referred to Buchanan’s speech as “declaring a ‘religious war’ and a ‘cultural war.’ ” In a lengthy New York Times article on the convention entitled “Taking No Prisoners in a Cultural War,” by Maureen Dowd and Frank Rich, the only reference to Buchanan was to a vendor who had sold 2,000 Buchanan buttons.

GOP National Chairman Haley Barbour said last month that the party would not again “make it easy for our opponents to misportray us, because to some degree the Houston convention did make it easy for them to misportray us.” Yes, but the “them” who led everyone down the path of misrepresentation were Republicans. All the media accounts of the Buchanan speech originated with self-serving comments by Bush aides and GOP “moderates.”

One consequence of this episode is that the GOP has gone a long way toward emasculating itself. On reading the 1992 coverage, it is shocking to realize that so many observations about American culture have gone from being unnewsworthy to unmentionable.

Republican moderates now seem to have Bob Dole under their control. They may also have landed the party in a perilous position. Buchanan will not be allowed to speak, and a pro-choice running mate probably will lead to his defection. If so, the pro-life movement will go with him, and that could spell the end of the GOP. It’s clear that a party run by budget-balancing businessmen has minimal appeal. One might as well support Ross Perot.

The whole strange episode of the speech that brought the Houston delegates and Barbara Bush to their feet for a standing ovation and later embarrassed the party has not yet received the full analysis it deserves. But it illustrates the great and continuing asymmetry in American political life: Democrats have no enemies to their left, and Republicans (at least of the Bush-Dole variety) have no friends to their right.