GOP Gathering Lifted Lungren, Golding Stature

With Gov. Pete Wilson a lame duck with a diminished political star, a new generation of Republican leaders has emerged in California, led by state Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren and San Diego Mayor Susan Golding.

Lungren, 49, came out of this month’s Republican National Convention with an enhanced image as a national political comer and the GOP heir apparent to Wilson, who cannot seek reelection because of term limits and who now says he will not run for the U.S. Senate in 1998.

But the big winner out of the convention, California political experts agreed, was Golding, 51, a moderate supporter of abortion rights who also has a reputation as a skilled administrator and someone who is tough on crime.

“This is better than winning the Super Bowl,” said Sam Popkin, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “This made her look like a helluva lot more serious mayor. . . . The absolute bottom line is she’s worth a look anywhere Republicans gather.”

Although she was little-known to Californians outside of San Diego, Golding had been touted in recent months as a possible candidate for either governor or the Senate in 1998. But much depended on her ability to survive a risky gamble: that San Diego could host a national political convention without some embarrassing glitch--or an utter disaster, such as a breakdown in transportation or communications systems, or a terrorist attack.

Golding won the gamble and now has been thrust into the spotlight as the Republican Party’s brightest new star in California.

“The whole Republican Party met Susan Golding and they saw a get-the-job-done executive,” said Dan Schnur, a former Wilson aide who now is a broadcast commentator and a visiting political science lecturer at UC Berkeley.

“By all indications, she’s ready for a statewide race,” said Donna Lucas, a Sacramento-based GOP consultant and communications executive. “She’s good. She’s got the polish. She’s ready to go.”

Although Golding, a Wilson protege, says she will not make any decisions about the future until after the November election, she is being mentioned most frequently as a likely GOP candidate in 1998 for the U.S. Senate seat of Democrat Barbara Boxer.

For Lungren, a conservative who opposes abortion, the convention marked an important turning point. Last winter and spring--after Wilson gave up his own abortive presidential campaign--Lungren and Wilson sparred over the leadership of the Dole campaign in California. Wilson, by virtue of his seniority as governor, muscled Lungren aside. Publicly, at least, Lungren had to be content to be second man.

But Wilson took some serious lumps at the convention, and within the Dole camp, for pursuing platform language in support of abortion rights in defiance of Dole’s convention managers. As the host governor, he was embarrassed by being denied a prime time speaking slot of his own. At the last minute, Wilson was given a crumb: to deliver a brief talk introducing Elizabeth Dole to the convention.

Dole operatives were quoted as saying Wilson was “dead meat” from then on, although he would continue to serve as titular head of the Dole campaign in California.

Many GOP experts believed Wilson was positioning himself for another possible run for the presidency in 2000, but that prospect appears to be diminished by his grim-faced fight over the abortion rights plank and the sudden resurrection of Kemp as a likely candidate if Dole fails to win this year, or if he wins and decides to serve only one term.

Meanwhile, it was Lungren who was invited to Dole’s hotel suite to watch convention proceedings with the Doles. It was Lungren who gave a four-minute convention speech to talk about the economic plank in the party platform.

And it was Lungren who was best buddy to former Rep. Jack Kemp, Dole’s surprise choice for running mate. The Kemp-Lungren friendship goes back to Lungren’s first, unsuccessful race for the House from Long Beach in 1976. They became close friends after Lungren was elected to the House in 1978. In 1988, Lungren was the first member of Congress to endorse Kemp’s bid for the presidency.

“He’s like a brother,” an emotional Lungren said while appearing before the California delegation with Kemp.

For Lungren, the Kemp pick “was kind of a bonus,” said Brian Lungren, the attorney general’s brother and political advisor. “It was a good convention for Dan Lungren. I think Lungren’s profile rose and I think it rose positively.”

So far, Lungren has no apparent opposition for the Republican nomination for governor in the June 1998 primary and his aides have done their best to make the Lungren candidacy appear to be an irresistible force.

Before the convention, Brian Lungren distributed a “Lungren campaign update” that declared: “The early bird gets the worm? Then we have the fishing bait market locked up.”

He cited Lungren’s $1 million in cash on hand and endorsements from his Long Beach mentor, former Gov. George Deukmejian, five former state Republican chairmen and others.

But there have been a few signs of discord.

Some prominent Republicans have grumbled privately that Lungren may be taking his success for granted. They were not impressed with his $1-million campaign treasury at the end of June. At the same time, Lt. Gov. Gray Davis, the only declared Democrat for governor, had banked nearly $2 million.

And the week before the convention, word circulated that Wilson was prepared to support Golding over Lungren if she decided to run for governor. One source close to Wilson discounted such talk, saying the story may have been prompted by Wilson aides trying to pique Lungren.

But a Golding confidant said Golding “really would like to be governor.” This Golding associate urged her to seek the office she wanted and not necessarily settle for the one--the Senate--that might appear to be easier to win.

“They’ll both be tough,” the Golding advisor said.

The consensus among most knowledgeable Republicans, however, is that it would be difficult for any other Republican to mount a credible primary challenge to Lungren.

Golding could be part of a crowded field if she runs for the Senate. Republicans long have considered the liberal Boxer vulnerable as she seeks a second six-year term.

Among those mentioned as possible candidates are Reps. David Dreier of San Dimas and Christopher Cox of Newport Beach and state Treasurer Matt Fong.

Normally, a conservative such as Dreier or Cox has an advantage over a moderate in a California Republican primary.

That could change in 1998, under California’s new “open” primary system in which any voter can cast a ballot in any party’s primary.

Schnur said, “That gives her [Golding] a shot at a lot of swing Democrats who aren’t big fans of Barbara Boxer.”