Clinton Holds 17-Point Lead Over Dole in State

President Clinton, capitalizing on his intense cultivation of California voters, maintains a solid 17-percentage point lead over GOP challenger Bob Dole among likely voters in California, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

It comes at a time when Californians say they are feeling better about the state than at any other time since 1991.

The election news is bleak virtually across the board for Dole, the former Kansas senator who has vowed to wage a competitive battle for California’s crucial block of 54 electoral votes. Clinton has a huge lead among women, is getting strong support from independent voters and has edged significantly into Dole’s conservative base.

Clinton leads Dole 53% to 36% among likely voters, with Ross Perot at 6%, Ralph Nader at 3% and 2% saying they don’t know.

Among all registered voters, Clinton leads 52% to 34%. That’s almost unchanged for Clinton from a statewide Times poll in July, when Clinton led Dole 50% to 30% with Perot at 17%. Nader was not included in the July poll.

Meanwhile, a senior Dole campaign official confirmed Thursday that Dole’s California manager, Ken Khachigian, was to fly to Washington today to review the Dole plan for California.

The official insisted the move did not mean that Dole is going to cut short the California campaign effort in order to devote resources to states where Dole has a greater chance of winning--a rumor that has plagued the campaign for more than a week.

But he said campaign officials have developed scenarios of how they could win without carrying California.

So far, nothing Dole has done in his campaign seems to have boosted his appeal with California voters since he won the March GOP primary and was formally nominated for president at the Republican National Convention in San Diego in August.

Californians generally are not buying Dole’s 15% tax cut plan, which served as the keystone of his campaign during August and much of September. Sixty-one percent of registered voters say it is unrealistic.

Nor do they seem to be moved by two other major Dole campaign themes in recent weeks: the rise in teenage drug use and moral decline in America as exemplified by violence, sex and drug use in motion pictures.

When asked what they consider to be the most pressing problem facing California, only 10% mentioned drugs and 2% listed moral issues.

Voters who said they look most for honesty in a presidential candidate said they prefer Dole over Clinton. But Clinton beats Dole among voters who say they prize leadership, caring for people and bringing about change.

They also chose Clinton over Dole for having the best ideas for handling foreign affairs, the environment and, narrowly, balancing the budget. Californians give the two candidates about equal marks on dealing with the issue of illegal immigration.

And more than three out of five respondents say Clinton should not be blamed for the rise in teenage drug use, an issue that has been hit hard by Dole and Republicans the past two weeks.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,333 Californians by telephone, including 1,059 registered voters, from Saturday through Tuesday. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

“Clinton’s 27 visits to the Golden State have paid off for the president. He is clearly very popular in California,” said Susan Pinkus, acting director of the Los Angeles Times Poll.

Among all women, Clinton is leading by 33 points, 60% to 27%. And Clinton’s support among independents has risen from 39% in July to 52%. Clinton also gets a fourth of voters who identify themselves as conservatives and a third of white Protestant fundamentalists.

“This does not bode well for Dole,” Pinkus said. Apparently his effort to reach out to conservatives at the GOP national convention and since then has failed to solidify this traditional base of Republican support.

One ray of light for the Republicans: The poll indicates that Californians now are slightly more inclined to vote for Republicans for Congress than they were in July. Even so, a plurality of respondents, 48% to 42%, said they favored Democrats in California House races. The Democratic edge in July was 51% to 40%.

This could be crucial in the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives, captured by the GOP in 1994. At present, California’s House delegation is evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, 26 to 26.

The outcome of seven closely contested House races in California could have a major impact on the Democrats’ prospects of winning back control of the House. Californians indicated in the poll that they are about evenly divided over the question of whether they wanted Democrats or Republicans to control the House if Clinton is reelected president.

This appears to reflect a California tendency over the years to favor divided government as a matter of checks and balances.

During the big Democratic victory of 1992, Democrats scored a net gain of three House seats in California. Going into that election, a Times poll found Californians preferred Democrats over the Republicans for Congress by 53% to 37%.

Also at issue in November is control of the state Assembly, where all 80 seats are at stake in this election. Republicans currently hold a 41-36 edge, with one seat held by the Reform Party and two vacancies.

Voters in the poll were asked how they would vote in their own Assembly district. Forty-six percent said they would support a Democrat; 41% a Republican. There was no comparative figure from July.

This has not been a good year for Reform Party candidate Perot, who won 21% of the California vote as an independent candidate in 1992. The latest Times poll found that Perot was the choice of just 6% of likely voters.

And Nader, the longtime consumer advocate often active in California issues, is barely a blip in the poll with a 3% showing. Nader is the candidate of the Green Party, but is not waging an active campaign.

Although Nader is something of a lonely warrior and hero to millions of Americans for his battles against faulty products and for the environment, the poll shows that he is largely unknown to a whole new generation of California voters. Of those poll respondents between the ages of 18 and 29, more than half said they had not heard of Nader. Of those who did have an impression of him, only 14% were favorable and 18% unfavorable.

In other key findings: Both Republican Gov. Pete Wilson and the California Legislature picked up slightly in public support following the generally productive and high-profile conclusion of the legislative session in September.

But both the governor and lawmakers still are viewed negatively overall. Wilson had a 42% approval rating, his highest in a year, to a disapproval of 50%. The Legislature’s approval rating was somewhat lower at 38%-43%.

Two key factors help Clinton: how Californians feel about the state at this point and how they rate the job Clinton has been doing as president. Both numbers are up since July. In fact, Californians are more bullish about how things are going right now than they have been since 1991, when the recession hit.

This optimism is relative since a majority of 53% still think the state is on the wrong track, but the level of those who are more positive about the state has risen to 39% compared with 34% in July and a low of 12% in the September of 1992.

But even among those who still think California is on the wrong track, 48% support Clinton and 35% Dole.

By a margin of 43% to 25%, Californians said they are better off today than they were four years ago.

These figures indicate that Dole’s California campaign has made little impact with its attempt to portray Clinton as a president who has “waged war against California” in terms of defense base closings and other issues.

One negative for Clinton is his signing of the Republican-backed welfare reform law. Californians, as a whole, disapprove of part of the law that would deny legal immigrants federal benefits by 55% to 39%. On the other hand, by 62% to 34%, they approve of Gov. Wilson’s action to deny benefits to illegal immigrants, an outgrowth of the federal reform legislation.

Clinton’s job approval rating has risen to 58% among all Californians, his best since the 58% of March 1994 and well above the low point of 44% in September before the November 1994 election, in which Republicans scored a surprising triumph.

Clinton’s strength throughout California illustrates the Dole camp’s difficulty in forging a winning strategy in the state at this point, just about six weeks before the Nov. 5 election.

The Dole plan is to reap a huge GOP vote margin in Orange County and make strong showings in San Diego and the rest of Southern California outside of the city of Los Angeles, including the Inland Empire of Riverside and San Bernardino counties, and the Central Valley.

But the poll shows Clinton holding his own in Orange County. Clinton holds an edge in the state’s suburban areas, which have been a major battleground and leaning more to Republicans in recent years. Voters in rural counties, which should be fertile Dole ground, were about evenly divided between Clinton and Dole.

Clinton is running majorities in Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area and even in the agriculture-rich Central Valley, a major Dole target area.

There does not appear to be much leeway for change, Pinkus said. About 80% of the supporters of both Clinton and Dole said they are highly certain of actually voting that way on Nov. 5.

* CLINTON’S BROAD AGENDA: Some voters see lack of big issues as weak point. A21

* RELATED STORIES: A20

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Clinton’s Lead

President Clinton maintains a solid lead over Republican challenger Bob Dole among California voters, with particularly broad support among women and independents. Dole maintains majorities among Republicans and white fundamentalists. Reform Party candidate Ross Perot and the Green Party’s Ralph Nader are drawing little support.

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Category Clinton Dole Perot Nader *Likely voters 53% 36% 6% 3% *Democrats 76% 12% 6% 4% *Independents 52% 18% 24% 3% *Republicans 23% 66% 7% 1% *Women 60% 27% 8% 3% *Men 44% 41% 8% 4% *White fundamentalists 36% 56% 4% 2%

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Here is how the candidates were rated when registered voters were asked who had the best ideas for handling these four issues:

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Balancing Illegal Foreign Budget Immigration Environment Affairs *Clinton 33% 32% 40% 44% *Dole 28% 33% 18% 39% *Perot 17% 6% 3% 3% *Nader 3% 3% 19% 1%

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Among all Californians, Clinton’s job rating is more positive than ratings for Gov. Pete Wilson and the California Legislature.

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Approve Disapprove *Clinton 58% 37% *Wilson 42% 50% *Legislature 38% 43%

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Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% where not all answer categories are shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,333 California adults, including 1,059 registered voters, by telephone Saturday through Tuesday. It also included a screen of 843 likely voters for the presidential campaign. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as the wording of questions and the order in which questions are presented.