All They Want For Christmas Are Some Hot Toy Sales

Christmas 1995 was a tough time for parents and the toy industry. Everyone was tussling with the same problem: no really big hits.

Sure, there was Holiday Barbie and the “Toy Story” toys, all in short supply. But there was little else to trigger any stampedes into the stores.

Just wait: Toy sales are expected to revive for Christmas, thanks to a resurgence in video games and several big movies, including a live-action version of “101 Dalmatians” and “Spacejam,” which stars Michael Jordan and the Looney Tunes characters.

Industry watchers have even greater expectations for 1997, with the release of a slew of big films--including the next “Batman,” with Arnold Schwarzenegger as the villain--and the re-release of the “Star Wars” trilogy to theaters.

“Next year is going to be spectacular. If I’m wrong on this, I give up,” said Michael Goldstein, chief executive officer of Toys “R” Us Inc.

A sales surge would be welcomed by toy manufacturers and retailers who have endured relatively lackluster sales the past year and a half.

“The toy industry is struggling to find product leadership,” said John Taylor, an analyst with Arcadia Investment Co. in Portland, Ore. “It’s similar to last year. There isn’t anything [on the market right now] that looks like it’s beginning to take on a life of its own.”

In other words, there are no Power Rangers (although they’re finding some renewed popularity, thanks to their new Zeo line) that every child wants and that heightens demand for other toys.

At Toys “R” Us, which suffered a disappointing Christmas season in 1995, “the most significant issue we’ve faced is the lack of new toys,” Goldstein said.

Some of this year’s toys haven’t met expectations. Disney’s “The Hunchback of Notre Dame” has waned at toy stores as well as at the box office. The film did not excite children as much as hits such as “The Lion King” and “The Little Mermaid.”

When they strike the right note with children, movies and TV shows are the biggest generator of toy hits--consider how many kids had to have “Jurassic Park” and “Lion King” toys.

So the movies coming out over the next 18 months are expected to invigorate the toy business.

To begin with, “Independence Day,” the big hit of the summer, and the scheduled November release of the “Toy Story” video will likely boost demand for action figures (and Slinky Dogs and Mr. Potato Heads) tied to the films.

Then there are “101 Dalmatians” and “Spacejam.” Mattel is a big manufacturer of Disney characters, and other companies that have licenses to make puppy-emblazoned toys should profit.

It’s hard to imagine that a movie with Michael Jordan, Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck could fail. Goldstein predicted that Playmates Toys Inc., the company that has sold billions of dollars in Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles figures, is expected to have another big hit with packages that combine figures of Michael with Looney Tunes characters.

Video games are reviving after two down years, helped by sales of next-generation machines like Sony Playstation. Sega’s Saturn machine is also doing well, and Taylor said software titles, including Madden Football, Crash Bandicoot and Knights, will be big sellers.

Moreover, Nintendo 64 goes on sale this fall, and is expected to be hot at Christmas and into 1997.

“We know based on [sales in] Japan that this is hot,” Goldstein said. “We expect every piece of Nintendo 64 will be sold”--he paused and snapped his fingers--”just like that.”

Toy makers have mixed feelings about video games. Consumer dollars spent on Sega, Sony and Nintendo products mean less money for Mattel, Hasbro, Playmates, Tyco and other manufacturers. But video games get shoppers into the stores, making them more likely to buy other toys as well.

Among dolls, Barbie is the only one making much noise. Gymnast Barbie, timed to coincide for the Olympics, has been a good seller. For Christmas, Holiday Barbie--in short supply last year, angering many parents--is expected to be hot again.

“This year’s is out already, and customers are gobbling them right up,” Goldstein said.

Mattel, Barbie’s manufacturer, and retailers were caught by surprise last year when the doll sold out, said Frank Reysen, editor of Playthings, a trade magazine.

“It’s so hard to predict demand, even for the best brains in the industry,” he said, rebutting contentions by some consumers that Mattel deliberately created a shortage.

“When we looked at the dolls and Mattel looked at them, we didn’t see much difference in them” that would turn them into such a hot commodity, Goldstein said.

Another big trend this year is educational toys and those that provide what Reysen called quality play. Toys manufactured by companies such as Learning Curve, Brio and Playmobil, as well as the Disney, Playskool and Sesame Street lines, are getting more attention. So are specialty toy stores like Noodle Kidoodle.

But if the analysts are right, this Christmas will just be a warmup for 1997.

In February, the “Star Wars” movies come out and new lines of toys will arrive in stores. What’s particularly intriguing about the re-release is that many children have never seen the movies in theaters, yet “Star Wars” action figures have been very popular for years. It’s easy to imagine that seeing the trilogy on the big screen will excite many kids.

Then, around Memorial Day, “Jurassic Park 2” is scheduled for release. The original film helped sell millions of dollars of toys, and both Taylor and Goldstein expect an encore from the sequel.

Next summer should bring the fourth “Batman” movie. Even if Batman himself weren’t such a big draw, there is Arnold Schwarzenegger. The combo is likely to be unbeatable in the action figure category.

“Anastasia,” the first animated film from Fox, is also expected to have successful toy tie-ins, as are several other big movies scheduled for 1997: “Hercules,” “Quest for Camelot” and a live-action version of “The Little Mermaid.”

But Goldstein noted that movies don’t automatically generate good products, even if the pictures do well. He noted that “The Flintstones” movie in 1994 and “Casper” last year didn’t lend themselves to the kind of toy that children--and retailers--gotta have.