Dole Docks in Florida--to Plot Course for Debates

Conventional wisdom dictates that a presidential contender running consistently behind in the polls just weeks before an election should intensify the pace of his campaign--pressing the flesh in as many states as possible and appearing on local television each chance he gets.

Bob Dole has other plans.

For the next five days and four nights the GOP presidential candidate is scheduled to be hunkered down in South Florida, sleeping in his own bed at his Bal Harbor condominium--the place where he’s more at home than anywhere else, except perhaps the U.S. Capitol.

Aides insist that Dole’s decision to get off the campaign trail for a few days is neither a sign of fatigue nor any indication that Dole has lost heart about his chances.

Instead, they say, the move reflects Dole’s seriousness about meeting President Clinton face-to-face in front of tens of millions of Americans in debates scheduled to begin 10 days from now.

“Every student in America who has ever crammed for an exam will understand why Sen. Dole would want to spend a little time preparing for the debates,” said Nelson Warfield, Dole’s press secretary. Bal Harbor, he added, is “a comfortable place for him to soak up the information.”

The move may, in fact, be a smart one, some political analysts argue--particularly since Dole’s current strategy has not yet served to put him ahead of Clinton in the polls.

“The debates are the only real chance he has to pull ahead,” said Burdett Loomis, a political scientist at the University of Kansas who has watched Dole closely for the last 17 years. “He needs that time to prepare. He’s not the greatest debater.”

With the campaign possibly hinging on his debate performance, Dole must be in his best form, Loomis added.

“You’ve got a 73-year-old candidate,” he said. “At some point he’s got to have some rest. The last thing you want is to have him look tired in the debates.”

Dole will certainly get some rest. Aides currently expect him to spend most of the time between now and the debate preparing, with relatively minimal campaigning.

Even before now, however, Dole has followed a tempo that has at times been noticeably more relaxed than that followed by challengers in past presidential races.

Instead of stopping in five or six states a day--as Clinton did this time four years ago--Dole’s campaign days often consist of two public events--at least one of which is often deep in friendly territory.

The day before heading to Florida, he didn’t leave his hotel in St. Louis until after 9 a.m. and was scheduled to be at home at his Watergate condominium in Washington before 8 p.m.

And unlike other candidates, Dole has often not been eager to use his campaign time to do local television interviews.

At one recent campaign stop, Dole was sitting in his Boeing 727, waiting for his press entourage to file stories before he could take off for his next destination. When he expressed annoyance about the delay to a senior aide, who has past experience with national campaigns, the aide suggested putting his time to good use by doing interviews with local television stations, which had camera crews at the scene.

That would surely garner Dole enhanced coverage, the aide suggested.

Dole turned down the suggestion, the aide later confided, saying he was worried he might make a mistake.

The Republican presidential candidate exudes confidence at campaign rallies. But in private, Dole has become uncharacteristically shy, especially after remarks this past summer--most notably his off-the-cuff statements about tobacco--gained him undesired attention in the national media.

This same uncertainty about speaking extemporaneously was reflected in Dole’s decision to start his debate preparations more than a week before the scheduled first round.

The pressure is particularly strong, campaign aides said, because speaking off the cuff is one of Clinton’s greatest talents.

During dinner earlier this month, Dole told his longtime confidant Tom Korologos that he had learned that while 19 million people saw his acceptance speech, an estimated 95 million people had watched the final presidential debate four years ago.

“He said, ‘Gee whiz, this is serious,’ ” Korologos, a Washington lobbyist, recalled.

Korologos added that Dole will clearly benefit from the time in the sun--much more than he would have from more days on the road.

“It will give him a chance to rest and regroup,” Korologos said. “He does his therapy on the beach; he has a lot of personal think time when he’s there.”

Out on the campaign trail Wednesday, Dole tried to put a positive face on his chances, but the crowd’s comments to him and his responses hinted that the candidate and his supporters are beginning to face the prospect that victory is now a long shot.

When he was shaking hands and chatting with supporters after an event in St. Louis, a man shouted out: “Missouri hasn’t given up with you!”

“Yeah,” Dole said, and, in a halfhearted manner he added, “We’re gonna win.”

The mood of those attending his rallies increasingly indicates that even some supporters are starting to believe that his defeat is inevitable.

“Maybe he doesn’t have a chance, but I’ll hang with him till the end,” Kelly Hines, 22, a recruiter for a bank, said at a Dole rally at St. Louis University.

“There’s no way, man,” said Kelvin Mar, a medical student at St. Louis University who is undecided but leaning toward Clinton, when asked if Dole could win the presidency.

But the people closest to Dole argue that defeat could not be further from his mind. “Anyone who suggests that Dole is not in this to win is not very familiar with Bob Dole,” said Sheila Burke, a top Dole campaign advisor who was his longtime chief of staff in Congress.

Korologos agreed. “I think his long weekend shows confidence,” he said. “If he thought it was over, he’d be frenetically running around. He’s not hitting the panic button. Sitting on the beach is not hitting the panic button.”

Times staff writer Edwin Chen in Washington contributed to this story.