Maybe Next Summer . . .

Stock up on sunscreen.

If you’re a rock fan, you may be spending a lot of time outdoors next summer.

Not only are Lollapalooza and the other major subsequent festival tours planning a return--with Sarah McLachlan looking to add her all-women Lilith Fair to the mix--but there’s also talk of a star-studded lineup of stadium and arena treks.

U2 leads the way with a massive stadium tour being booked. But some of the other names being floated are high-profile too:

* The Rolling Stones--Plans had been drawn up for the Stones to follow the 1994 “Voodoo Lounge” stadium tour with a brief ’95 or ’96 series of more intimate, half-acoustic, half-electric arena shows modeled more or less after Barbra Streisand’s--complete with the premium ticket price. That idea was scuttled, reportedly in part because Mick Jagger objected to charging fans as much as $250. Now the band is exploring the possibility of 1997 shows, probably in stadiums again.

* Paul McCartney--With the wave of Beatles nostalgia stirred by the “Anthology” video and CD series, and with his wife, Linda, apparently healthy after a breast cancer scare, McCartney is said to be eyeing a return to concert stages, most likely in arenas. The one hitch is that he apparently doesn’t want to tour without releasing an album of new material, which could delay the plans for a year.

* Pink Floyd--The English prog-rock kings’ 1994 tour was one of the biggest of that record-setting year, and talk of one with new special effects has started.

* Van Halen--Promoters were drooling at the prospect of a tour reuniting singer David Lee Roth with the band he left a decade ago. But with that scenario now dead in the wake of a new rift between the parties, they’re nowhere near as excited about the band going out with another singer replacing the fired Sammy Hagar. Knock it down from stadiums to arenas.

* Journey--With the Roth/Van Halen package off the board, the reunion of this quintessential ‘70s arena-rock band could be the biggest revival next year. A new album is due Oct. 22, and with the band being overseen by Irving Azoff, who masterminded the Eagles reunion, a tour seems likely.

* Pearl Jam--They’ve heard this before, but promoters report that the Seattle band’s camp is laying tentative plans for a nationwide trek next year, the band’s first full-scale tour since before the band’s feud with Ticketmaster began in 1994.

Of course, a lot of these tours could just be wishful thinking on the part of the nation’s concert promoters, who are reeling from what has been a very disappointing 1996. Only three acts--the KISS reunion, Garth Brooks and Alanis Morissette--were consistent smash hits at the box office.

But it wasn’t just that there were fewer big attractions on the road than in most years. Even some seemingly reliable names--including Neil Young and the Metallica-led Lollapalooza ‘96--fell short of expected numbers, leaving empty seats, unsold tickets and depressed promoters in many markets.

“There were a lot of tours out there that didn’t live up to what promoters’ expectations were,” says Gary Bongiovanni, editor in chief of the concert business trade publication Pollstar.

“In the old days, with lower ticket prices, you could survive your mistakes,” says Alex Hodges, senior vice president of MCA Concerts. “Today you can’t.”

At the midpoint of the year, Pollstar figures showed grosses among the top U.S. concert tours down more than 25% from last year at the same time. If that drop-off holds for the second half, total 1996 box-office grosses project to just $712 million--the lowest since 1989’s $670 million, and just half of 1994’s all-time record high of $1.4 billion.

A lot of hopes had been pinned on the prominent festivals--the established Lollapalooza, H.O.R.D.E. and Warped, and rookies Furthur and Smokin’ Grooves--to bring excitement and cash flow to the concert market. But they proved hit-and-miss, leaving many questions for next year.

“After this summer, there’s lots of room for [festival organizers] to go back to the drawing board and come up with some new plans,” Hodges says.

And that, to varying degrees, is what the tours’ organizers have in mind.

* Lollapalooza--After getting so-so results for the shows held in such unconventional locations as county fairgrounds and airfields, most promoters are lobbying for a return to more familiar amphitheaters. Attendance was up--an average of 23,000 tickets, compared to 1995’s 18,000. But that was much less than organizers’ pre-tour projections, and production costs were up in many locales where facilities had to be built from the ground up.

“Although I understand the reasons behind Lollapalooza or any other festival wanting to be in fields, it’s more difficult for the audience and more expensive to produce,” says John Scher, president and CEO of the New York-based Metropolitan Entertainment Group, which promoted a New England Lollapalooza date and produced the Furthur Festival tour.

* H.O.R.D.E.--In its sixth year next summer, the jam-band showcase will roll for the first time without its founder, the band Blues Traveler, on the bill. With that in mind, Dave Frey, who is both that band’s manager and the tour producer, says he will do what it takes to keep the H.O.R.D.E. aesthetic intact, focusing on bands that can build good live followings regardless of record sales--even if that means cutting back the size of the tour, which this year averaged 18,000 tickets per show.

He’d love to score a name headliner who could anchor a solid-drawing lineup (Van Morrison ishis ideal). “But if we can’t do something like that and the lineup can only support 7,500 people at $20 a ticket, we have to scale it down,” he says. “I really didn’t have any expectations that next year will be as big as this year. But if it works at the smaller level, that’s the main thing. That will help ensure that we’ll still be around in 20 years.”

* Warped--After two years, the skate-oriented tour’s creator, Kevin Lyman, is also thinking relatively small and inexpensive--a key to shows that attract a predominantly teen audience.

“I’m trying to develop a niche market,” he says. “I’m thinking next year of including a movie premiere--bands from dawn to dusk and then screen a movie, maybe a skate or surf film. We’re talking to bands already and to film companies that do that kind of thing, and hopefully we could tie a soundtrack album to the film using bands on the tour.”

* Furthur Festival--”This was designed for two purposes,” Scher says. “It was to be an outlet for former Grateful Dead members and an event for the Deadhead nation to go to. It served the former totally, the latter only partially. It generally brought out the youngish ones, but we didn’t see a lot of Deadheads older than 35.”

Furthur, headlined by bands fronted by former Dead members Bob Weir and Mickey Hart, averaged about 13,000 people per show--not even close to the business perennial touring champs the Dead did.

Scher is developing strategies for next year, though he’s not sure which former Dead members will be along. The biggest challenge, he says, will be finding ways to keep the tour--and the Deadhead vibe--going in future Furthurs, even if no Dead members are on board.

* Smokin’ Grooves--The inaugural hip-hop caravan, starring Cypress Hill and the Fugees, proved that rap can tour without problems. So now tour packager and William Morris Vice President Cara Lewis is looking to expand the concept. With the shows this year averaging about 10,000 per night, next year she hopes to add more festival elements such as merchant booths and perhaps a second stage.

“Let’s hope there’s more hip-hop on the road all year next year,” she says. “It’s been very quiet in recent years and these acts had been forced to play clubs. There was method to our madness with Smokin’ Grooves: Everyone was out for the same cause--to have fun.”