GOP Candidates Distancing Their Campaigns From Dole

On the front page of a recent campaign brochure, Republican congressional candidate Rich Sybert is pictured with Gen. Colin Powell. Inside, there’s a photo of Sybert with President Ronald Reagan.

Where’s GOP nominee Bob Dole?

His name is relegated to a list of “other Republican leaders” supporting Sybert, who is competing with Democrat Brad Sherman in a district that straddles the San Fernando Valley and Ventura County.

Sybert is not the only Republican candidate distancing himself from Dole.

In a recent mailer from Assemblywoman Paula L. Boland (R-Granada Hills), the featured photo is of County Supervisor Mike Antonovich. Boland, who is running for state Senate against Democrat Adam Schiff, is pictured with vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp. Dole is nowhere to be seen.

Neither Dole nor Kemp will be featured in the mail campaign of Republican state Senate candidates Joe Dolphin in San Diego, who is running against Assemblywoman Dede Alpert, or Republican Assemblyman Phil Hawkins, who is running against Betty Karnette in Long Beach, their managers say.

“We are endorsed by Dole and we are proud of Dole, but we are running on the merits of Phil Hawkins’ record,” said Hawkins’ manager, Chris St. Hilaire.

Similar Dole-distancing is evident in other state and federal legislative races throughout California, political consultants say. Despite pleas from GOP leaders not to give up on Dole, many in the party have, or are at least hedging their bets.

“Dole who?” asked one GOP consultant.

That quip confirms the impressions of Democratic consultant Larry Levine.

“I’m not seeing any Republican in the state paying attention to the Dole campaign,” he said.

Consultant Darry Sragow, whose mission is to win back the Assembly for the Democrats, is not expecting Assembly candidates to be swept in on Clinton’s coattails. Yet, there’s something to be said for being on the right side of the flow.

“My analogy is currents,” Sragow said. “Are you swimming with the current or against the current?”

Complicating matters for Republican legislative candidates this year is the oft-reported tug of war within the Dole camp over how much money to spend on campaign ads in California given the candidate’s poor showing in the polls.

A lack of all-out effort for Dole could be damaging to the rest of the Republican ticket. As undecided voters focus on the election, consultants deem a GOP presidential presence critical, whether or not it results in electoral votes for Dole.

Dole’s chief California strategist, Ken Khachigian, continues to insist that Dole will not fold his tent here.

A spokesman for Khachigian also denied that GOP candidates are distancing themselves from their presidential standard-bearer.

But GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum, who studies all legislative races in the state, conceded Republicans are “becoming resigned” to losing the top of the ticket “and planning for it accordingly.”

Unless a landslide is forecast, Hoffenblum said it is generally unwise to link the bottom of the ticket with the top. Yet, when it looks like a good deal, candidates do.

“If you are running away with a race, everyone wants to be on stage with you,” UCLA political science professor John Petrocik said. “If you’re losing, everyone down ballot has a previous commitment.

“What you’re seeing is evidence of a previous commitment” on the part of Republican candidates, he said.

Sybert campaign director John Theiss explains Dole’s treatment in the mailer as “hedging your bets” by showing the candidate with Republicans popular with district voters.

“Clearly, Powell, Kemp and Reagan play very well in this district,” Theiss said.

In a different Sybert brochure handed out by precinct walkers, Dole is pictured, albeit on the back but in a supporting role to Powell, who is on the front of the literature.

Sybert downplays his association with any GOP leader. “I’m running as me,” he said.

Many of those running GOP legislative campaigns are pondering a question that presumes a Dole defeat here: What will happen immediately after voters cast their ballots for Clinton? Will they cross over and support GOP candidates farther down the ballot?

“We hope they will,” Hoffenblum said. “This is new territory.”

That pattern was a hallmark of the 1980s, a period when many California voters split their ticket by voting for Reagan, then crossing over to send Democrats to Congress and the state Legislature.

There are many factors influencing legislative races, among them partisanship, demographics, incumbency and the quality of the campaign.

At this point, however, the outcome of competitive legislative races locally lies disproportionately with those voters who are undecided on which presidential candidate to back.

The worry for Republicans is that even those candidates who have distanced themselves from Dole could still go under if undecided voters go heavily for Clinton and their enthusiasm spills down the ballot.

Petrocik said undecided voters, a large number of whom are swing voters, are usually more influenced by short-term forces than by political philosophy or party loyalty.

One influencing factor is the bandwagon effect of joining the camp of a candidate who is expected to win.

“People like to vote for a winner,” Dragow said.

Barring unforeseen events, Petrocik said he expects Clinton to win more of the undecided vote than Dole.

“It’s not a good year for Republicans,” Petrocik said.

After studying past presidential races and this year’s polls, Petrocik said Republicans also have to worry about defectors in their own party. He said 60% of those GOP defectors could vote for Democrats for Congress and state legislatures.

While no one is yet predicting a Clinton landslide, local Republican candidates--even as they continue to turn away from the Dole ticket--are concerned about a Democratic rout.

“A big loss might give Clinton the coattails that will provide the winning difference for down-ballot Democratic candidates,” Petrocik said.