Support for Measure Declines, Poll Finds

Support has slipped for Proposition 209, but backers still outnumber foes of the initiative that would ban race and gender preferences in state and local government hiring, contracting and education, according to a Field Poll released this week.

Supporters outnumber opponents 47% to 32%, with 21% undecided. In September 1995, 58% supported it, 33% opposed it and 9% were undecided.

The initiative is leading among voters living in every geographical region in the state except for the San Francisco Bay Area.

The poll, conducted Oct. 1 through Oct. 8, found that 81% of likely voters knew about the proposition, an unusually high percentage. Last month, the figure was 52%.

The big increase surprised pollsters.

“What is unique about Proposition 209 is that the relatively large amount of voter awareness about it has come about almost entirely as a result of free media coverage and not from paid pro and con advertising [that] is typical in most salient ballot initiative campaigns,” said poll spokesman Mark DiCamillo.

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Foes of the measure expect to flood the state with television ads a week before next month’s election, said Read Scott-Martin of the Campaign to Defeat 209.

“You can’t win a campaign in California without electronic communication,” he said.

The telephone survey of 1,122 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Republicans, suburbanites, whites and men continue to back the measure. Among women voters, 40% support it while 35% do not.

The poll found the opposition to consist mainly of Democrats, liberals, city dwellers, blacks and nonwhite women. Others, including Asian Americans, Latinos and nonwhite men, appear to be split.