Lebed Has Lost His Job but Not His Political Clout

Alexander Lebed has never hidden his intense desire to be Russia’s next president. The former general’s problem is that he seems almost to delight in giving the impression that he doesn’t intend to wait until Boris Yeltsin dies, resigns or completes his second term before trying to take over.

Lebed finished a solid third in the presidential primary last spring. His considerable popularity, based on his role in the Afghanistan war and his strong stand on law and order, prompted Yeltsin to bring him into the inner circle as his national security adviser. But Lebed’s naked ambition and impolitic disregard for the sensitivities of other high officials produced instant tensions and conflicts. This week one of those whose toes Lebed trod on most heavily, Interior Minister Anatoly Kulikov, accused Lebed of plotting a mutiny. A seriously ill Yeltsin, resting in a sanitorium preparatory to heart surgery, was shown the alleged evidence. Soon afterward, Yeltsin summoned the TV cameras and publicly fired Lebed.

But to banish Lebed from government is not to expel him from the affections of his countrymen. From all signs, Lebed remains highly popular, not least among a miserably paid and poorly cared for soldiery whose cause he champions. Russia’s leaders are traditionally nervous about generals who become too popular both in the ranks and among the public. There was no accidental choice of words when Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, after the firing, condemned Lebed as having a “home-grown Napoleon complex.”

If Yeltsin dies in office a new election must be held within 90 days. It would be astonishing if Lebed were not the front-runner in any presidential campaign held soon. Washington clearly can’t afford to write him off, as it once foolishly wrote off Yeltsin as little more than a boorish clown without hope of making it to the top.

Meanwhile, the maneuvering for advantage among aides who know better than anyone else how sick Yeltsin is seems certain to go on. An early casualty could be the truce in Chechnya that Lebed negotiated and that remains much resented by his rivals. Also possible is a tougher line on policy toward the United States. In an uncertain political climate left even more unsettled by Lebed’s firing, no potential successor to Yeltsin will risk being accused of supporting anything--like ratifying strategic arms agreements--that some might see as compromising Russia’s national interests.