Japan’s Vote Leads to No Power Shift

Japan stayed with the status quo in parliamentary elections under a new electoral system Sunday, declining both to restore a majority to the dominant Liberal Democratic Party and to deliver a mandate for bold change to opposition forces.

Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, the formidable former trade minister who has managed to contain potentially explosive issues ranging from a housing-loan crisis to the U.S. military presence on Okinawa, is likely to remain the nation’s premier, as his Liberal Democrats strengthened their position by capturing 239 of 500 seats.

As postelection jockeying began, LDP Secretary-General Koichi Kato said his party will first turn to its current coalition partners, the Social Democratic Party and the New Party Harbinger, to form a new government.

“I expect the three parties will work together as they have until now,” Kato said at a news conference early today.

But since the three parties’ numbers are not enough to form a stable majority, the “new government will probably be weaker than the previous one,” political analyst Minoru Morita predicted. He said the LDP may seek to smash the archrival New Frontier Party by wooing defectors, or it may ally with members of the fledgling Democratic Party by pledging to make good on LDP campaign promises to carry out administrative reform.

Already, 10 New Frontier members were preparing to quit their party to ally with the LDP, the Japanese press reported today.

An LDP-led coalition may be good news for the Pentagon--Hashimoto is a strong supporter of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty and is likely to push Japan to play a more clearly defined supporting role during military crises in the Asia region, analysts say.

But what the LDP’s revival means for U.S. business is unclear.

Some analysts argue that Hashimoto will push for needed deregulation to revive Japan’s faltering economy and use the party’s greater clout over bureaucrats to speed resolution of such outstanding U.S.-Japan trade issues as U.S. companies’ desire for greater access to Japan’s insurance market.

Morita predicted that the new government will be more pro-business, since the election badly weakened the Social Democrats and the New Party Harbinger, both longtime supporters of labor.

Others observers, however, forecast even greater trade frictions with a strengthened party known for its collusive ties with business.

“For the U.S., the results suggest stability,” said Robert Orr, a Temple University political science professor in Tokyo. “Despite all the complaints about the LDP--and I think they are part of the problem--the political and military circles in Washington view them as a stabilizing factor for the security relationship and a party that historically has been able to cut deals with bureaucrats on trade when pushed.

“I’m not convinced that those deals have been effective, but I think the people in Washington will be pleased,” Orr said.

But Japanese analysts were at pains to fathom a clear overall message from the electoral results. After electoral changes aimed at creating a two-party system based on clearly defined policy differences, Japan’s voters neither gave free rein to the Liberal Democrats to bring back the rock-solid stability of the past nor empowered the opposition New Frontier and Democratic parties to shake up the nation’s entrenched power structure with bold new reforms.

The prevailing sentiment appeared to be boredom, as the voting rate dropped to a historic low of 59.6% of 98 million people.

“This is just a power struggle among old men. I’m not interested,” said college student Koji Kato, 21, who did not vote.

The uncertainty over the elections’ ultimate meaning was reflected in dueling editorials by Japan’s two leading newspapers. The conservative Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan’s largest newspaper, called the results a vote for “stability and responsibility,” while the Asahi Shimbun said they reflected “bewilderment and a sense of fumbling for something.”

In fact, voters displayed confusion over both the new system--which introduced 300 single-seat districts and 200 seats based on proportional representation--and the splintered political landscape in general.

Since the LDP stunned the world by losing its majority in 1993 after nearly four decades of unrivaled rule, Japan has witnessed four prime ministers, two coalition governments and the formation of new parties and disbanding of old ones.

Despite a national campaign focusing on the government’s intention to increase the consumption tax to 5% from 3% and on reform of the sprawling bureaucracy, voters at one Tokyo voting station evidenced mainly bewilderment as they stood scanning the bank of candidate posters, or discussed with friends how to cast the new, confusing ballots.

“I don’t know what to do or who to vote for,” lamented Kayoko Ogata, a 66-year-old homemaker. “So many candidates have quit their old parties and joined new ones--I’m thinking of writing in my own name.” Ultimately, she voted for the LDP legislator who has served her area for the last several years.

Of the six major political players, only the LDP and Communists have not changed their names or come into existence in the last three years--and both parties scored the greatest gains, with the Communists increasing their seats to 26 from 15.

The major opposition forces failed to stir up momentum for change, with the New Frontier Party dropping to 156 seats and the Democrats failing to increase the 52 seats held by a defunct party from which they were formed.

And voters spurned the two parties that abandoned the 1993 anti-LDP reform government after originally forming it: the Social Democrats, who lost half of their 30 seats after reversing their major principles to take power with their erstwhile conservative rivals, and the New Party Harbinger, which was nearly wiped out in losing seven of its nine seats. Both parties allied with the Liberal Democrats in 1994 to form Japan’s ruling coalition.

The election marked a defeat for Ichiro Ozawa, the New Frontier Party leader who had advocated revolutionary, concrete changes ranging from a massive tax cut and more political control over bureaucrats to a 30% reduction in housing costs through extensive deregulation.

Ozawa’s vision impressed many foreigners, but Japanese do not generally favor radical change, and his abrasive, impatient style--along with his support from the controversial Soka Gakkai Buddhist organization--alienated many here.

At a postelection news conference, a grim-faced Ozawa lashed out at his political rivals for failing to help spark a national debate over policies and concentrating instead on attacking his credibility, his Soka Gakkai support and his “dictatorial” manner.

“In Japan’s case, those who lay out their opinion are simply attacked by those who fail to take any responsibility or put forth their own opinions,” a wearied Ozawa said. “But unless you clearly indicate your respective opinions, democracy won’t take root.”

Morita said Ozawa and his forces had been most strongly rebuked by rural voters, who still blame them for liberalizing the rice market when they held power in 1993 and 1994. Although the new system increases the weight of urban voters, rural Japan still holds sway and continues to reject calls to open its markets in line with global standards, he said.

Still, the New Frontier Party managed to perform nearly as well as the LDP in the proportional races--obtaining 60 seats versus the LDP’s 70--where voters selected parties based on their image and platforms rather than individual candidates. And some observers said a close analysis of election returns indicated the beginning of a subtle shift in the political landscape, with the LDP losing strength in Hokkaido, Okinawa and the urban centers of Tokyo and Osaka.

“The LDP as a strong party throughout Japan has disappeared,” the Nihon Keizai Shimbun said in an analysis.

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Lower House Results

Below is the number of seats each party won in Sunday’s Japanese elections. The new lower house has 500 seats.

Liberal Democrats: 239

New Frontier Party: 156

Democrats: 52

Social Democrats: 15

Communists: 26

Others: 12

SOURCE: Central Election Commission