Clinton Keeping Solid Lead Over Dole in State

President Clinton holds a commanding 20-point lead over Republican challenger Bob Dole among likely voters in California, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll conducted just as Dole launches an all-out battle for the state’s pivotal 54 electoral votes.

Dole aides have said their decision to pour massive new resources into California, including a multimillion-dollar advertising blitz, was heavily influenced by their own polls indicating that Dole had narrowed Clinton’s margin in the state.

But the Times poll shows no narrowing. Indeed, Clinton’s lead, now 54% to 34%, is almost identical to his 53% to 36% lead in the last statewide Times poll in mid-September.

The poll also indicates that Californians feel better about their state, about themselves and about Bill Clinton than they have at any point in the past four years. By 5 to 3, voters believe Clinton understands California’s problems better than Dole. And Clinton’s job approval rating stands at 60%, his high-water mark in California since taking office.

Furthermore, 93% of Clinton’s likely voters say they are certain they will vote for the president on Nov. 5, meaning that for Dole to win the state, he not only would have to win over every remaining undecided voter, he would also have to convert at least some Californians who now say they have settled on voting for the president.

“Republicans argue that the Clinton vote is soft, but I don’t see that in these poll findings,” said Susan Pinkus, acting director of the Los Angeles Times Poll. “California voters seem to have decided their candidate for president.”

Reform Party candidate Ross Perot had the support of 6% of likely voters and Green Party nominee Ralph Nader had 3%--in both cases, the same as in the September poll.

In spite of Dole’s special wooing of California in recent days, potential voters in the state generally do not find him an attractive candidate. Dole’s favorable-unfavorable rating rose to 50%-35% after the GOP National Convention in San Diego in August, but now it is at 46%-48%.

The voters’ favorable impression of Clinton, meanwhile, is at a California high of 64%, with 35% saying they have a negative impression.

About half the California voters believe that Dole is too conservative for them and about a third say he is just right. On the other hand, about half say that Clinton’s ideology is about right for them and a third say he is too liberal.

At the same time, California voters indicate that they are more inclined to vote for Democrats than Republicans for Congress. With the state’s U.S. House delegation split 26-26 between the two major parties, California is considered a key battleground in the fight to control the House.

Half the likely voters interviewed now say they intend to vote for a Democrat for Congress and 44% for a Republican. Democrats led in the September poll by 47% to 44%.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,551 Californians over a five-day period from Thursday through Monday. The sample has 1,290 registered voters, including 1,038 who say they are likely to vote Nov. 5. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Polling began the day after the final Clinton-Dole debate in San Diego on Oct. 16 and after the Dole campaign’s decision to make victory in California the No. 1 priority nationwide.

The Times poll indicates that Clinton’s strength in California has been consistent since the national conventions in August.

And while much can happen during the critical final days of a campaign, nothing Dole has done so far has been able to shake Clinton’s support among California voters virtually across the board.

For instance, Dole has attempted to make “trust” a major issue within the past two weeks. But voters were equally divided as to which candidate they could better trust to keep his word as president: 40% said Clinton, 40% said Dole. Twenty percent said neither, both or they weren’t sure.

The president continues to make major inroads into demographic groups that had been considered part of Dole’s natural voting base. Dole’s major remaining basis of support is among conservative Republican voters, where he leads Clinton by 83% to 10%. But Clinton is splitting all other Republican voters--those who consider themselves moderates or liberals. Clinton has 40% of those voters to Dole’s 41%. Clinton leads non-conservative independents 57% to 16%.

After all the talk of Clinton benefiting from a gender gap, the new poll indicates that male Republicans are defecting to Clinton in virtually the same numbers as Republican women. In each case, slightly more than 20% of these registered Republican voters support Clinton.

At the same time, Democratic men--a specific target of the new Dole strategy--have been moving to Clinton. In September, Democratic men were going to Clinton 65% to 19%. Now, the balance is 82% for Clinton and 3% for Dole.

The poll indicates that Dole will have difficulty making major inroads with the issues he is trying to emphasize now, including potential scandals involving Clinton, the character issue, illegal immigration and affirmative action.

At the heart of Dole’s California offensive is the allegation that the Clinton administration has hurt the California economy in the past four years with military base closings and cutbacks in other defense spending affecting the aerospace industry.

But the poll indicates that Clinton spoke with justifiable confidence during the San Diego debate when he declared: “If you believe that the California economy was better in 1992 than it is today, you should vote for Bob Dole.”

Indeed, 42% of Californians said they think things are generally going in the right direction in the state now, while 44% say the state is on the wrong track. In October of 1992, only 14% thought California was headed in the right direction and 80% said the state was off track.

And by 47% to 22%, Californians said they are better off financially than they were four years ago. An additional 30% said their well-being was about the same. But even among those voters who said they are worse off, Clinton is splitting the vote about evenly with Dole.

As it becomes apparent to some political experts that Clinton probably will win reelection, some Republicans have begun to urge voters to support GOP candidates for Congress as a means of balancing Democratic power in the White House.

Conventional wisdom is that Californians want a divided government to prevent one party or the other from adopting extremist measures.

About three-fourths of the voters said they would vote for their party for both president and Congress. But 21% said they want some sort of divided government.

California generally is a state with more moderate voters than conservatives, Pinkus noted, just as the Dole campaign is shifting its emphasis to its conservative base.

“A majority of Californians are for abortion rights,” Pinkus said. “They are also for the assault weapons ban, the Brady Bill and the Family Leave Act.”

The economy continues to be the dominant issue in the minds of California voters. When asked to list one or two key issues that would affect their votes for president, the economy was the dominant issue at 20%, followed by taxes at 13%, welfare reform, 11%, and education, 10%.

Clinton led Dole among those who listed the economy by 63% to 27%. But among those who said taxes were most critical, Dole was ahead 54% to 31%. A proposed 15% income tax cut was the centerpiece of Dole’s early campaign.

Even though Dole has tried to make Clinton’s handling of illegal immigration a major issue, registered voters responding to the poll said that, by 39% to 30%, Clinton had better ideas for dealing with illegal immigration.

The issue of “scandals” surrounding the Clinton administration drew only a 2% response as one of the most important issues of the campaign.

The issue of character registered 9% and among those who listed character as a key issue, 78% were supporting Dole and 12% Clinton.

Geographically, Clinton is winning overwhelmingly in the major metropolitan areas, and has a strong lead in the suburbs. Clinton is running ahead in California’s Central Valley, which had been a key region in Dole’s plan to win California. The only major geographic sector in which Dole has a lead is rural California--and that is a slender one.

Times Poll analyst Monika McDermott contributed to this story.

* RELATED STORIES: A12, A15

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Clinton Leads Dole Statewide

President Clinton has a solid lead over Republican challenger Bob Dole in California. Dole’s base vote among Republicans and conservatives remains somewhat divided, and he trails the president among groups he must win to carry the state.

Among likely voters

Clinton: 54%

Dole: 34%

Perot: 6%

Nader: 3%

Someone else/Don’t know: 3%

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Among registered voters

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Clinton Dole Perot Nader All registered voters 55% 31% 7% 3% Republicans 21% 67% 8% 1% Conservatives 26% 62% 6% - Moderate Republicans 40% 41% 12% 3% White men 45% 36% 9% 4% Central Valley 47% 41% 8% 1%

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Among registered voters

California voters find Clinton’s views to be more in line with theirs, while Dole’s are seen as too far to the right.

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Are the candidates policies: Clinton Dole Too liberal for you? 34% 8% Too conservative for you? 9% 47% Just about right for you? 49% 32% Some too liberal, some too conservative? 4% 4% Don’t know 4% 9%

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And while voters are equally divided in their trust of the candidates, Clinton is viewed as the better candidate for California and the nation.

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Neither/ Which of the two major party candidates: Clinton Dole Both Better understands California’s needs? 52% 29% 12% Will more likely keep his word as president? 40% 40% 14% Has a clearer vision for the future? 58% 33% 7% Better understands average Americans’ problems? 59% 31% 9%

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Note: - indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may not add up to 100% where all answer categories are not shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,551 California adults by telephone, including 1,038 likely voters out of 1,290 registered voters. The poll was conducted Oct. 17 to 21. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for registered voters and likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.