Wilson Gets Straight Cs for His Time in Office

Midway through his second and final term, Republican Gov. Pete Wilson gets an unspectacular but consistent grade of C from Californians who rated his job performance during the past six years, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

But Wilson has lost support among African Americans and Latinos during his six years in office. While whites gave Wilson a solid C average, he got a C-minus from Latinos and only a D-plus from blacks.

“This is hardly a ringing endorsement of his accomplishments in the state over the last six years,” said Susan Pinkus, acting director of the Times Poll. “But this is consistent with Californians’ feelings over the last six years.”

Poll participants were asked to judge Wilson’s achievements on a classroom scale of A-plus for excellent to F for failure. They graded the governor on overall performance as well as on individual issues such as education, government finance and crime.

Predictably, Republicans gave Wilson higher marks than did Democrats. Most grades were in the B, C and D range. For the overall job rating, Wilson got A’s from 7% of respondents, Bs from 26%, Cs from 38%, Ds from 18% and Fs from 8%.

Wilson got his highest marks for his handling of illegal immigration, with 16% giving him an A grade. He also earned an A from 11% of the voters on his handling of welfare and 10% for crime.

But Wilson also got his worst grades on illegal immigration--Fs from 18% of those polled, followed by Fs on education from 15% and on welfare from 13%.

Both blacks and Latinos gave Wilson Ds on handling immigration and C-minus on welfare reform. On crime, blacks gave Wilson a D-plus and Latinos gave him a C, while men and conservatives assigned Wilson C-pluses.

The Times poll also found that the day-to-day job approval ratings of both Wilson and the state Legislature have improved markedly in recent months, and that likely California voters are slightly more inclined to vote for Democratic candidates than Republicans for the state Assembly in the Nov. 5 election.

And with Wilson barred by term limits from seeking a third term, other state political figures soon will begin positioning themselves to run for the governorship in 1998.

Among five frequently mentioned potential candidates, only U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, is well known to California voters. Two others, Democratic Lt. Gov. Gray Davis and Republican Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, have declared themselves candidates and generally have made a positive impression on those voters who know who they are.

For its latest survey, the Times Poll interviewed 1,551 Californians during the period Oct. 17-21. The sample has 1,290 registered voters, including 1,038 who say they are likely to vote Nov. 5. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Wilson’s report card on illegal immigration reflects the political schism in California on this emotional issue, and Wilson has been a leader of the drive to cut off government services to those who are in the country illegally.

But surprisingly, Wilson also got a decidedly mixed grade on education, in spite of his highly publicized actions this year to pump new money into the public schools to reduce class size in the lower grades.

Although Wilson’s grade on education averaged a C, only 7% of poll participants gave the governor an A for excellence while 15% issued an F. Even 8% of Republicans flunked Wilson in this category. Those giving Wilson an F included 14% of all men and 14% of women.

“To some extent, these grades might reflect the public’s general attitude toward education as much as anything specific that Wilson has done to affect education,” Pinkus said.

This was the first time the Times Poll asked participants to grade a governor for his full tenure in office so there is no way to compare Wilson’s grades with those of his predecessors.

Wilson’s day-to-day job rating is nearly back to the level it was in the months after he took office in 1991. That was before the governor’s image began taking a battering from the economic recession, his struggles with the Legislature and his unpopular decision to seek the presidency last year.

At one point, in the fall of 1992, Wilson’s job approval rating plummeted to 28%.

But now, 44% of Californians approve of the job Wilson is doing while 47% disapprove and 9% say they did not know enough to make a judgment. In October of 1991, Wilson won 39% approval and 46% disapproval.

A review of Times Poll findings over the six years indicates both consistencies and some shifts among Wilson’s supporters and opponents.

In 1991, Wilson had just been elected after a campaign in which he portrayed himself as a moderate on many issues, including abortion and the environment, and he warred openly with the conservative wing of his own party.

As he ran for a second term in 1994, however, Wilson came across as a more hardened conservative, using the volatile illegal immigration issue as a keystone of his campaign along with fighting criminal “thugs.”

Through the six years, however, Wilson’s support from those who consider themselves conservatives and those who are in the middle of the ideological road has been quite consistent. And the job approval rating Wilson gets from women is quite similar now to what it was in 1991.

But Wilson now has stronger support from whites--especially white men--and corresponding higher disapproval from African Americans and Latinos, a reflection presumably of Wilson’s strong positions on illegal immigration and affirmative action.

The state Legislature’s job rating with the public is up as well. For the first time since May of 1991, the Legislature does not have an overtly negative job performance rating from California voters. But it was not positive either.

The Legislature won 40% approval and an equal 40% disapproval, while 20% said they were not sure. In the fall of 1992, the Legislature sank to a dismal 13%-73% approval-disapproval level.

The image of both the governor and the Legislature suffered severely in the summer and fall of 1992 because of their bitter budget deadlock that delayed passage of the state spending plan for two months and forced the government to run on IOUs.

While this year’s legislative session was a rancorous and partisan one, there was no major budget stalemate and the lawmakers ended their term on a note of productivity.

And generally, as Californians feel better about how the state is faring economically, they also have felt better about the job the governor and Legislature are doing. In the latest poll, 42% of voters said California generally is on the right track now, a 15-point increase compared with one year ago.

While 44% still think California is off course, this is the most buoyant voters have been since Wilson took office.

The new Times poll also asked likely California voters how they were inclined to vote in contests for the 80-member California Assembly, the lower house of the state Legislature.

With Republicans now holding a narrow margin in the Assembly, the balance of power is expected to be determined by the outcome in about a dozen highly competitive districts.

In this poll, 48% of likely voters say they plan to vote for a Democrat for the Assembly and 44% said a Republican. That was a slight increase from the 45%-44% Democrat-Republican split in the Times poll in September, but still within the margin of error.

On a related subject, by 44% to 37%, likely voters say they think the Democratic Party could do a better job than the Republicans in handling the problems of California.

Almost as soon as next week’s election is over, California political experts will begin focusing on the 1998 elections, with the governorship the big prize.

Among those who say they will run for governor, or are considering it, are Feinstein, Davis, Lungren, White House Chief of Staff Leon Panetta and Democratic state Controller Kathleen Connell.

Feinstein, who has run in statewide races three times since 1990, is the only one who is widely known in California. Only 10% of the voters said they haven’t heard enough about her to form an opinion. Among those who had, 49% had a favorable impression of her and 38% viewed her unfavorably.

After Feinstein, Davis and Lungren--both longtime California political figures--were the best known, although 43% said they didn’t know enough about Davis to have an opinion, and 42% said this about Lungren.

Among those who were aware of Davis, 37% had a favorable impression of him and 14% had an unfavorable one. For Lungren, it was 32% favorable and 20% unfavorable.

More than half didn’t know enough to have an opinion about Panetta, a Democrat who is chief of staff in the White House and before that was a congressman from California. Among those who had an opinion, Panetta was seen favorably by 23% and unfavorably by 18%.

Connell, in her first term as a state official, is unknown to more than 80% of Californians polled. Those who knew something about her gave her a 10%-3% favorable-unfavorable ratio.

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Wilson’s Report Card

Californians were asked to give Gov. Pete Wilson a report card grade on his handling of issues affecting the state. In his six years as governor, his grade is a C in overall performance and Cs on handling such issues as illegal immigration, the environment and public education.

Overall Performance Grade

* A: 7%

* B: 26%

* C: 38%

* D: 18%

* F: 8%

****

Average grade on issues affecting Californians:

* Illegal immigration: C

* Welfare reform: C

* Balancing the budget: C

* The environment: C

* Public education: C

* Crime: C

****

Wilson’s job approval rating has improved since last year at about this time. However, Californians remain lukewarm about the governor.

*--*

NOW 9/95 10/94 10/93 10/92 10/91 *Approve 44% 33% 38% 31% 28% 39% *Disapprove 47% 60% 53% 55% 61% 46%

*--*

Note: Numbers do not add to 100% because “don’t know” category is not shown.

Source: Los Angeles Times polls

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,551 California adults by telephone, including 1,038 likely voters out of 1,290 registered voters. The poll was conducted Oct. 17 to 21. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for registered voters and likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.