Clinton Maintains Big Lead; Fight for Congress Is Tight

With one week until election day, voters appear poised to present President Clinton with a decisive victory, but remain deeply divided in the battle for control of Congress, The Times Poll has found.

Compared to the last national Times survey in early October, the new poll shows the GOP position strengthening in the struggle for Congress, even as Republican candidate Bob Dole’s standing further deteriorates against Clinton.

With nearly 90% of likely voters saying they have now firmly settled on their choice in the presidential race, the survey shows Clinton leading Dole by 51% to 34%, with Ross Perot trailing at 12%. That’s a measurable turn up from Clinton’s 12 percentage point lead in The Times poll in early October.

But Democrats now hold only a margin of 4 percentage points over Republicans when likely voters are asked which party they will support for Congress--a drop since earlier this month. Indeed, even as Republicans launch a new advertising blitz meant to discourage Americans from giving Democrats unified control of government, the survey already finds a slight decline in the percentage of voters who want to see a Democratic Congress elected if Clinton wins.

Dole’s arguments against Clinton seem to be facing much stiffer head winds. With both Dole and Perot now relentlessly assailing Clinton’s ethics, the survey does find a substantial minority of voters uneasy about the president’s honesty and integrity. And 52% of voters said Clinton should “unequivocally” rule out pardoning Susan McDougal and other figures convicted in the Whitewater case--as the president has staunchly refused to do.

But the survey also makes clear that Clinton is benefiting from an “everybody does it” attitude among many voters. Only about 4 in 10 voters said Clinton is less ethical than Dole. Roughly an equal number said Clinton is just as ethical as Dole, and another 1 in 6 said the president’s ethics are superior to his rival’s. And 3 in 5 of those polled said that Clinton is “just about as ethical as most other modern-day presidents.”

‘Politics as Usual’

Along the same line, a majority of voters said the controversy over donations from foreign companies and foreign nationals to the Democratic National Committee constitutes “politics as usual” rather than evidence of serious wrongdoing by Democrats.

The Times Poll, supervised by acting poll director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,626 adults, including 1,394 registered voters from Oct. 24 through Oct. 27; from that group a pool of 1,112 likely voters was determined. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

If the presidential race remains one-sided, the battle for Congress appears increasingly difficult to call. The poll captures ambivalent and even contradictory attitudes that make prediction hazardous.

On the one hand, voters continue to give the Republican-controlled Congress low marks: Among registered voters, just 39% approved of Congress’ job performance, while 55% disapproved. And just 39% of voters said that based on their record Republicans “deserve to maintain control of Congress”; 48% said they don’t deserve continued control. By a similar margin of 11 percentage points, voters said Democrats rather than Republicans can do the best job handling the country’s problems.

On the other hand, the Democrats now lead Republicans only 48% to 44% when likely voters are asked which party they will support for Congress; earlier this month, Democrats held a 6-point lead. And the percentage of registered voters who said they would prefer a Democratic Congress if Clinton wins reelection has dropped from 38% earlier this month to 31%; the percentage who would prefer Republican control in that circumstance inched up from 31% earlier in October to 34%.

Attitudes Firm Up

In contrast to this turbulent picture, the survey finds attitudes solidifying about the presidential contenders.

Among registered voters who favor Clinton, 84% said they are certain in their choice; 15% said they might still vote for someone else. Reduced to a narrower base, Dole’s support is actually a bit firmer than Clinton’s, with 89% of his backers saying they are certain to vote for the Republican. Perot’s position is the most tenuous, with just 59% of his backers saying they are certain to stick with him, and 38% saying they might switch.

Stability remains the overwhelming story in the race. Clinton’s advantage among likely voters now is exactly the same as his lead among all registered voters in The Times Poll in early August--before both party conventions, before both presidential debates and before tens of millions of dollars in television advertisements from both sides.

Though individual voter groups continue to shift slightly in allegiance, the contest’s basic partisan and ideological structure has not changed much since spring. Clinton is leading because he is dominating Dole with voters in the center of the electorate, while making deeper inroads into the traditional Republican base than Dole has been able to make into Democratic territory.

Among independent voters, Clinton leads Dole by 42% to 26%, with Perot attracting 22%. At the same time, Clinton is holding 83% of Democrats--just 6% defect to Dole and 8% to Perot. By contrast, Dole wins just 74% of Republicans--12% defect to Clinton and 10% to Perot.

Viewed through the prism of ideology, the results tell the same story. Moderates prefer Clinton over Dole by 55% to 20%, while Clinton is running much better among conservatives (29%), than Dole is among liberals (9%).

Combining partisanship and ideology underscores the point. Just 8% of moderate and conservative Democrats are voting for Dole, but Clinton continues to attract one-fifth of non-conservative Republicans. Dole wins 12% of antiabortion Democrats, while Clinton is drawing 19% of Republicans who favor abortion rights.

Clinton narrowly leads Dole among such ordinarily core Republican groups as married voters, college graduates, white Southerners and white men; Clinton holds a double-digit lead among voters earning $60,000 or more and is running almost even among white fundamentalist Christians, arguably the most loyal Republican voting bloc in recent years. Those voters give Dole a 41% to 38% lead (with 15% going to Perot).

At the same time, Clinton holds huge leads among low income voters (more than 4 to 1 among voters earning less than $20,000), those with a high school education or less, blacks, women (51% to 30% over Dole), and singles (63% to 18%). Catholics--once a Democratic mainstay and more recently a GOP-leaning swing vote--have returned to the party of their parents in large numbers: they prefer Clinton over Dole by 22 percentage points.

As throughout the year, Clinton continues to benefit from improved perceptions about the economy and his performance in office. Just over a majority of those surveyed said the economy is not in recession; by comparison, in October 1992, on the eve of Bush’s defeat, only 9% of voters believed the economy was not in recession.

Similarly, 57% of those surveyed gave Clinton positive marks for his job performance, compared to 39% who viewed him negatively.

Voters give Clinton the edge on several key personal characteristics. By 54% to 32%, voters said Clinton, more than Dole, understands the problems of average Americans; virtually identical percentages said Clinton has “a clear vision for the future.” Clinton leads more narrowly when voters are asked who has better ideas for solving the country’s problems (49% to 34%) and strengthening the economy (47% to 38%).

Ethics, Integrity

On questions of ethics and integrity--issues at the core of Dole’s closing argument--the picture is more complex. Two-thirds of voters said Dole has the honesty and integrity to serve as president, while 24% disagree. That’s better than Clinton’s showing. But, even so, a clear majority of 55% also said Clinton meets the standards of integrity they expect in a president, with 42% disagreeing.

Only about 4 in 10 believed Clinton is less ethical than Dole, and just over half of those are Republicans. And, although Dole now strenuously argues that he can be better counted on to keep his promises than the incumbent, voters remain unconvinced: Dole edges Clinton only by 41% to 39% when voters were asked who was “more likely to keep his word as president.”

Nor do voters yet appear overly concerned about the ethical allegations piling up against Clinton and the Democratic National Committee. Just 1 in 5 voters said the recent charges that Democrats have accepted contributions from foreign nationals and companies amounts to serious wrongdoing; 54% called it politics as usual. (Only 20% said they are closely following the story.) About one-third of voters said they expect ethical controversies to weaken a second Clinton term if he wins; 57% said they expect such charges to make no difference.

Asked directly if character or issues was the central factor in their choice, 56% of voters picked issues, and just 24% character. Dole does lead Clinton by 12 percentage points among the nearly half of voters who choose honesty as the most important from a list of desired attributes for the next president. But that advantage is overwhelmed by Clinton’s decisive margins (roughly 2 to 1, or more) among those who want a candidate who can provide leadership, bring change and cares about ordinary Americans.

The survey finds only a mixed response to Dole’s other principal thrusts in the campaign’s final days. By 51% to 39%, a majority of voters now endorsed Dole’s argument that Clinton is a “tax and spend” Democrat.

But Dole still has not sold his own plan to cut income tax rates: 60% of voters considered the plan unrealistic, unchanged from September. Just 20% said cutting taxes should be the top priority for the next president; 28% would rather focus on increasing spending on public “investments”; and 40% said balancing the budget should be the top goal.

And the poll suggests that Dole has failed in his overall goal of branding Clinton a liberal. Just 37% of voters said Clinton is too liberal, almost exactly the same percentage that said Dole is too conservative. Only about 35% of voters said they consider Dole’s policies “just about right,” compared to 48% who feel that way about Clinton. Coincidentally or not, that’s almost the same percentage of voters who said they plan to give the president a second term as the clock ticks down on Dole’s hopes for a comeback unequaled in American political history.

* TIMES POLL: Californians more upbeat on economy, spending plans. D2

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Divided We Stand

A slim plurality of voters intends to vote for a Democrat for Congress. But a majority of voters also believes a divided government is a good thing because it acts as a check on Congress and the president. Republicans hope that argument will help them.

Clinton/Dole/Perot Horse Race (Among likely voters)

Clinton: 51%

Dole: 34%

Perot: 12%

Other/Don’t know: 3%

*

Congressional Generic Horse Race (Among likely voters)

Democrats: 48%

Republicans: 44%

Neither: 4%

Don’t know: 4%

****

(Among registered voters)

Congressional job rating

Disapprove: 55%

Approve: 39%

Don’t know: 6%

*

Do you think division between Clinton and the Republicans in Congress is a good thing because they act as checks on each other, or a bad thing because it prevents things from getting done?

Good thing: 51%

Bad thing: 34%

Other/Don’t know: 15%

****

Clinton has consolidated his base of Democrats, while Dole is suffering from Republican defection--a fifth each of the non-conservative Republicans are going to Clinton and Perot.

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% where more than one response was accepted or where all categories are not shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The Times Poll contacted 1,626 adults nationwide, including 1,394 registered voters, by telephone Oct. 24 through Oct. 27; from that group a pool of 1,112 likely voters was determined. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for all adults, registered voters and likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain sub-groups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.